The 2026 Internazionali BNL d’Italia (also known at the Italian Open) is in full swing at the Foro Italico in Rome. We’ve broken down the day’s best tennis betting picks, digging into matchup tactics, surface tendencies, and current form to find the sharpest edges on the board. Whether you’re betting the moneyline, game spread, set spread, or total, our 2026 Internazionali BNL d’Italia best bets are built to help you profit. I’m dropping some of my favorite plays for Friday, May 8 below, but make sure you also monitor the picks page throughout the day. I generally have a few more picks over there, plus I occasionally add plays based on how lines are moving. That’s also where Gill Alexander posts his best bets.
Karolina Pliskova vs. Jaqueline Cristian
Pliskova has been surprisingly good since the start of 2026, going 11-5 with a 71.8% hold percentage and a 32.4% break rate. The 34-year-old’s best tennis is definitely behind her, but it’s clear she’s still capable of ripping off wins at the WTA level. The former world No. 1 also happens to be playing some of her best tennis on clay, which isn’t all that surprising. Pliskova’s best surfaces used to be hard courts and grass courts, but clay has been a little easier on her as she has gotten older. In slower conditions, she has a little more time on the ball. Also, her serve is good enough for her to pick up free points in any conditions, which can’t exactly be said about others.
Looking at this match, I like Pliskova’s chances to beat Cristian. I actually do think Cristian is a good player — and a fighter — but she’s just 11-11 on the season. She has also struggled to find any sort of form on clay this year, which says a lot about how down her game is at the moment. She’s normally very reliable on this surface.
It just feels like there’s a legitimate chance Pliskova’s power can trouble Cristian here, and that’s especially true if the Romanian’s rally tolerance doesn’t allow her to keep her Czech opponent on the move.
Bet: Pliskova ML (-125 – 1.5 units)
Peyton Stearns vs. Madison Keys
Keys hasn’t played a lot of tennis lately, as she withdrew from Madrid after suffering a disappointing loss to Yuliia Starodubtseva in Charleston. Now, I just wonder what type of form she’s going to bring into Rome. Keys has made the final here before, but that was all the way back in 2016. Since then, Keys has suffered some bad losses in the Eternal City. In fact, Stearns beat Keys in the Round of 32 here a year ago, winning 2-6, 6-2, 7-6 (3). I think the 24-year-old has the game to do it again.
Stearns is just a relentless competitor, making her someone players want to avoid on clay. In fact, she’s 26-13 on this surface in her career, and that 66.7% winning percentage is the best she has on any surface, by far.
Stearns just should be able to get a lot of balls back in play, demanding some crisp ball-striking and solid movement out of Keys. Will we see it? I’m not so sure. Stearns is also quite aggressive herself, and she won’t be afraid to hit to the open court in this match — and there should be a lot of it.
Bet: Stearns +1.5 Sets (-164 – 1.5 units) & Stearns ML (+163 – 0.5 units)
Rebeka Masarova vs. Leylah Fernandez
Fernandez hasn’t had a great 2026 season, as she’s 9-11 and hasn’t been as productive as a returner as we’re used to seeing. Well, that makes her a somewhat beatable seed early in this tournament, and Masarova has the game to take her out.
Masarova has a big, heavy forehand that is hit with a lot of topspin, which is a major weapon on a slower clay court. She’s also a fantastic returner on the dirt, which could make Fernandez uncomfortable here. Fernandez can occasionally struggle to pick up easy holds, and Masarova will surely test her.
Masarova’s big kick serve is also a major strength on a clay court, and it could be even more dangerous if it’s bouncing and getting up on Fernandez. At only 5’6”, Fernandez’s height can occasionally be a weakness, and that rings true in conditions like these.
Bet: Masarova +1.5 Sets (-128 – 1.5 units) & Masarova ML (+205 – 0.5 units)
