2026 WNBA Awards Preview
With the 2026 WNBA season tipping off tomorrow, I wanted to use today to give one final look at the awards market before basketball is actually played. I’ll discuss the WNBA MVP, WNBA Championship, and Rookie of the Year odds and where some value might lie at this point. Don’t forget, I’ll be writing up virtually every game preview right here on VSiN.com throughout the WNBA season so be sure to check back every game day to get the TSI projections and best bets. That will start tomorrow, but for now let’s check out the season awards markets.
See Tyler Shoemaker’s WNBA season preview with analysis of every team.
WNBA Championship
New York Liberty (+220)
The New York Liberty have emerged as the betting favorites to win the 2026 WNBA championship after the most active offseason in the franchise’s history. Along with retaining Breanna Stewart (18.3 PPG), Sabrina Ionescu (18.2 PPG), and Jonquel Jones (13.6 PPG), the Liberty added another All-Star piece in Satou Sabally. On paper, this is the most stacked roster in the league. The caveat early is that the Liberty will be without Ionescu at least two weeks because of foot and ankle injuries, and the franchise also replaced legendary head coach Sandy Brondello with first-time WNBA coach Chris DeMarco. At +220, the implied probability sits around 31%, which feels about right for a team that checks all the boxes but has some short-term injury issues, an unknown acclimatization period for Sabally, and a new head coach. I think buying small on them now wouldn’t be a bad idea, and if they happen to struggle (relatively) early on, taking another bite of them would be the play. If they come out guns blazing, this number is sure to shrink because of their talent.
Las Vegas Aces (+390)
The Aces pulled off one of the great late-season runs in league history in 2025, going into the All-Star break at 14-14 but then turning things around by winning 16 straight and running the table for their third championship in four years. The Aces received 40% of the votes as the team most likely to repeat and win the 2026 championship in the WNBA GM survey. The only knock one could’ve made about them a week ago was depth, but they already made a move to shore that up by adding junkyard dog Chennedy Carter to the squad. They obviously feature the best player in the world in A’ja Wilson, a slew of other stars in Loyd, Gray and Young, and one of the best coaches in the game in Becky Hammon. The question for Vegas is whether they can come out of the gates playing at full capacity or if they’re going to have some championship fatigue and coast through the regular season again. But, as long as they make the playoffs they are capable of knocking off anyone, as we saw last year. I think +390 is a pretty decent price on them at this point.
Indiana Fever (+450)
The Fever market is essentially a health futures bet on Caitlin Clark. Indiana reached the WNBA semifinals in 2025 and took the eventual champion Las Vegas Aces to overtime in a decisive Game 5, all while playing the majority of that run without their star guard. The path to the title runs through Vegas and New York, and Indiana’s defense was a liability at times in 2025, although I’d expect that to tick up this year with the addition of SEC DPOY Raven Johnson. Indiana will also have the luxury of roster and coaching continuity this year after retaining Kelsey Mitchell, Aaliyah Boston, Sophie Cunningham and Lexie Hull, as well as head coach Stephanie White. I definitely think this is probably about as long as the odds will be for Indiana, health-permitting.
Atlanta Dream (+650)
The Dream are the sleeper worth monitoring. Atlanta’s odds shortened from +1200 to +900 following the Reese trade, and now to +650 after the WNBA Draft, where they selected Madina Okot from South Carolina to help inside while center Brionna Jones heals from an injury. Head coach Karl Smesko led the Dream to 30 wins in his first season at the helm, and the addition of Angel Reese alongside Allisha Gray and Rhyne Howard gives Atlanta an athletic, versatile unit. At +650, the Dream are the best bet outside the obvious contenders to win the title.
WNBA MVP
A’ja Wilson (+200)
The case for Wilson is almost absurdly simple. Wilson has taken home four of the past six WNBA MVP awards. In 2025, Wilson became the first player in league history to win a fourth MVP award, receiving 51 of 72 first-place votes. She averaged 23.4 points, 10.2 rebounds, 3.1 assists, 2.3 blocked shots, and 1.6 steals in 31.2 minutes in 40 games. She also won MVP, Finals MVP, Defensive Player of the Year, and a championship in the same season (something that has never been done before.) In the WNBA GM survey, A’ja Wilson stole 60% of the 2026 MVP vote, far outpacing every other candidate in the eyes of the people who watch this sport for a living. There are historical precedents that also favor her: repeat winners are quite common, with eight players having won two or more MVP trophies in the award’s 27-year history. At +200, Wilson is the most sensical play in this market, as boring as it is.
Caitlin Clark (+260)
Clark’s elite playmaking, deep shooting range, and ability to dictate pace immediately elevate the Indiana Fever’s offensive ceiling, which they desperately missed last year. When she’s on the floor, she functions as both a primary scoring option and a Pistol Pete-like playmaker for the Fever. Clark played just 13 games in 2025, but her 8.8 assists per game would have finished second to Phoenix’s Alyssa Thomas if she had qualified. Interestingly, Diana Taurasi in 2009 is the only pure guard to win WNBA MVP since Cynthia Cooper in 1997 and 1998. The voters tend to gravitate toward bigs and forwards. However, MVP is often as much a narrative award as it is anything else, and if Caitlin can lead the Fever to true contention this year after they looked so dreadful at times last year without (albeit, somehow making the league semis), I think the “comeback” narrative is one voters will cling to.
Napheesa Collier (+1000)
Collier has finished as the runner-up in the past two MVP races, and when healthy she is a genuine top-two player in the league. Collier finished No. 2 in offensive rating (122.9) and No. 3 in defensive rating (96.5) last season. Phee’s 22.9 PPG last season was second-best in the league, but she just underwent surgery on both ankles and if out for the projected four-to-six weeks, won’t be with the team until June. If she returns healthy by mid-June and the Lynx are contending, the +1000 price becomes very attractive. To me, this is a two-part equation for Phee’s case; she has to get healthy ASAP, and the Lynx have to find a way to return to last year’s form despite losing Carton, Smith and Shepard to expansion draft and free agency. That’s a tough task but getting +1000 on a bonafide star for a capable team isn’t a bad way to spend a buck.
Rookie of the Year
Azzi Fudd (+300)
No. 1 overall pick Azzi Fudd holds the shortest odds to win Rookie of the Year. Fudd’s offensive profile is exceptional: she led the nation in 3s made (117) and ranked fifth in 3-point percentage (44.7%) in her final college season. Every previous No. 1 overall pick to win ROY (Bueckers, Clark, Wilson, Taurasi, Candace Parker, Maya Moore) went on to be all-time greats (or are at least on the path to being that, in the case of Bueckers and Clark). The concern is opportunity and role definition. During their time together at UConn, Bueckers carried a 19+ scoring average while Fudd settled in around 13.6 points, so how Dallas balances a Bueckers-Fudd backcourt will be key, especially when it comes to usage and consistency. But Azzi can get red-hot from 3 and she’s already one of the most famous players in the league and hasn’t stepped on the court yet, which never hurts.
Olivia Miles (+250)
Point guard Olivia Miles, the No. 2 pick of the 2026 Draft by the Minnesota Lynx, received 73% of the votes as the player most likely to win the Rookie of the Year award in the WNBA GM survey. She led the nation in triple-doubles at TCU last season with six. Miles pairs elite court vision with a high basketball IQ, averaging 19.6 points, 6.6 assists, and 7.2 rebounds per game as a do-it-all kind of player. With Napheesa Collier starting the season on the shelf, Miles may have more immediate opportunity in Minnesota to rack up some stats early on. Getting 73% of GM votes but sitting at +250 is a very interesting position for Miles’ stock. I think at this price, it’s worth a shot.
Lauren Betts (+750)
Betts finished her final season at UCLA averaging 17.1 points on 58.2% shooting, 8.8 rebounds, and 2.1 blocks per game, capping it off by helping lead the Bruins to their first-ever national championship. UCLA’s assistant coach compared her to Nikola Jokić; “great hands, great footwork for her size, and the way she has been passing”. The 6’7″ center has as complete a skill set as any big in this draft class, and she showed it immediately in the preseason: Betts averaged 15 points and 4.5 rebounds through two preseason games and delivered a dominant 17-point, 58.3% shooting performance in a win over the Atlanta Dream and Angel Reese. Washington isn’t anywhere near contending this year, but they have a young, hungry group that can make some noise and that is headlined by Betts.
Flau’jae Johnson (+500)
Johnson might be the single most interesting dart throw in the entire ROY market. After being traded from the Golden State Valkyries to the Seattle Storm on draft night, Johnson walked into the Storm’s starting lineup immediately and posted a 20-point preseason performance against the Portland Fire, going 4-for-9 from 3 through two games. She averaged 14.6 points, 5.3 rebounds, 2.3 assists, and 1.6 steals per game over four collegiate seasons at LSU, which gives a rebuilding Seattle squad a really athletic and versatile guard to immediately plug into the lineup and build around. The opportunity she’ll have is as favorable as any rookie in the class, as Nneka Ogwumike, Skylar Diggins, Gabby Williams, and Brittney Sykes all departed in free agency, leaving Johnson with little veteran competition in the backcourt and guaranteed high-usage minutes from day one. She’ll operate as a primary ball handler for Seattle, similar to how Clark and Bueckers functioned on their respective teams in their ROY-winning seasons.
