WNBA Picks
A solid 1-0 night last night in the WNBA for us, as Atlanta narrowly covered the 10.5 as home favorites for us. Tonight, we’ve got three more games ahead, featuring the Connecticut Sun hosting the Golden State Valkyries, the Toronto Tempo hosting the Dallas Wings, and the LA Sparks hosting the Chicago Sky. None of those games jump out as necessarily marquee matchups, but that’s why there are betting lines, to keep things interesting. Here are the TSI projections for Friday night.
Connecticut Sun (+7.5) vs Golden State Valkyries, O/U 153.5
No team is outperforming its season average right now like the Connecticut Sun, who are playing 13 points better over their last five games. Is that a legitimate turnaround, or are they about to turn back into a pumpkin? Golden State has actually also been playing significantly better, but for them that’s only about 3.5 points, so the real regression candidate here is Connecticut. The thing I’m looking at for this game is that Golden State’s last three games have been about 8.5 points lower scoring than their season average, which I think is deflating this total. If they regress back anywhere near their season average, this game should easily go over the total, which is where TSI indicates it’ll go. TSI projects Golden State -7.5 with a total of 160, so although just looking at recent scores might scare you off this total, I think Golden State’s offensive and defensive outputs regress back to the mean a little here.
Bet: Over 153.5 (Play to 155)
Toronto Tempo (+6.5) vs Dallas Wings, O/U 179.5
Toronto has lost three straight and seven of its last nine, and has been 5.5 points worse than its season average over the last three games. Dallas has been about two points above its season average over the last three games, so if we’re starting to look for regression-based bets, this game isn’t a bad option. This is also Dallas’s fourth road game in nine days, so perhaps fatigue settles in a bit for them. TSI projects Wings -2.5 with a total of 171.5 in this game, and Dallas has been about seven points worse on the road this season. These teams recently played, with Dallas winning by 13 in a game that totaled 165 points, and I think this is a good spot for Toronto. The only thing keeping me off the Under is that these teams have really underperformed relative to averages lately in terms of total points outputs, so a huge regression game here with 200 points wouldn’t necessarily shock me.
Bet: Tempo +6.5 (Play to +5.5)
LA Sparks (-1.5) vs Chicago Sky, O/U 178.5
LA finally got a win without Kelsey Plum and Cameron Brink against Caitlin Clark and the Fever the other night, but even with that win, they’re playing about 4.5 points below their season average over the last 3 games. Chicago has won four out of five and is outplaying their season average by 11 points over the last three games. Big regression candidates here. TSI projects Sparks -6 with a total of 174. I don’t particularly want to bet an Under with the Sparks, I will back them on a cheap money line at -115 (TSI makes it -218), as Chicago has been seven points worse on the road than at home this season.
Bet: Sparks ML -115 (Play to -130)
For all of my WNBA picks, including prop bets and live plays, be sure to follow me on X @TShoeIndex and turn your notifications on to get real-time updates from me on all things WNBA.
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