UFC Fight Night 281 Predictions:
Oklahoma City hosts UFC Fight Night 281. The fight card has 11 bouts scheduled after a frantic couple of weeks in which the event lost three fight matchups. Five fights are scheduled with combatants weighing 170 pounds or more. The chances of finishing the other opponent are strongest within these weight classes.
We will also witness five bouts with a five-year youth advantage, and in seven bouts, a fighter from outside the country must travel to Oklahoma City to compete against an American fighter, where travel, weight issues, and visa concerns should not be an issue.
Last week, Mario Bautista and Max Holloway both earned for digital readers, pushing this year’s released results to 12-12-1 -.50u.
We track actual releases here, not overall thoughts… as an aside.
Dricus Du Plessis -260 vs. Kamaru Usman +220
Middleweight (185 pounds) main event
Usman is the former welterweight champion who, at the ripe old age of 39, has decided to try once again to find relevance in a division where the men are stronger, younger, and larger than he.
This will be Usman’s fourth fight since 2023 where he pivoted from the 170-pound welterweight division for a loss to Leon Edwards, then jumped up to middleweight to be dominated by Kamzat Chimaev before taking a little time off to refocus.
In his most recent bout, Usman fought a welterweight battle against Joaquin Buckley last year, where he wiped the floor with the St. Louis fighter who is wrestling void!
Now, after a year and a half, Usman returns to the larger middleweight division to face off against its former champion in DDP.
DDP is seven years younger than Usman, and as importantly, he has taken only a nominal amount of damage in his career while Usman, a professional mixed martial artist since 2012, has many battles under his belt along with plenty of fight damage to haul into this main event. That’s before we even mention the damage he has accrued to his knees.
This will be a difficult matchup for Usman, who has tremendous wrestling acumen, but those two wobbly knees may well make the execution of said wrestling prowess very difficult, especially against a guy like DDP who has been focusing on his wrestling in preparation for this battle.
DDP arrives for this fight close to the prime of his career, while Usman enters hoping to land a lucky submission to make one last run at middleweight.
While I have tremendous respect for Kamaru Usman and his body of UFC work it appears to me that rather than the UFC having to direct Usman to the retirement discussion, they’ll allow DDP to do that for them for while this fight will begin in competitive fashion the longer it goes the more I see Usman slowing and eventually showing his age and the accumulation of attrition that his body has undergone over almost two decades of world class wrestling/UFC competitions.
Total in this fight: 3.5 Over -190
Lean to the Over
DDP’s wrestling is nominal, and the proud old Usman is not likely to go out of this one easily.
Jose Delgado -115 vs. Austin Bashi -105
Featherweight (145 pounds)
Bashi is a decorated, world-class wrestling talent who has transitioned to MMA.
With a 14-1 record professionally, Bashi is 1-1 in UFC competition, easily dominating John Yannis after being schooled by a well-rounded striker/wrestler, Christian Rodriguez, in his debut fight in the UFC.
The good news for Bashi is that he fought a competent Rodriguez to a decision loss as well. This athlete is a quick learner and accelerating in mixed martial arts competence, especially in striking.
Jose Delgado steps into this fight 3-1 in UFC competition. He’s faced much more diverse and talented competition. He’ll own height, reach, and size advantages over the short, sawed-off Bashi.
Delgado trains at Phoenix’s MMALab, a team rife with world-class wrestling/grappling talent, so competing against Bashi in this spot will surely be a challenge but nothing more strenuous than what he sees daily in training.
Delgado’s size, reach, power, and well-rounded mixed martial arts weaponry separate him here from the novice Bashi, and while money has trickled in on Bashi, the price on Delgado has transitioned from -170 at open to -115 currently. That signals an immediate buy.
UFC Vegas 120 Best Bet: Jose Delgado -115
Total in this fight: 1.5 rds. Over -180
Strong lean Over
On Friday, the white-hot ‘Bout Business Podcast drops across all podcast platforms. Catch all my final releases for this fight card there. Thank you for reading, and enjoy the fights!
