Daily Racing Form expert handicapper and analyst Marcus Hersh handicaps the Sunday, June 21 racing card at Churchill Downs, including his projected 1-2-3 finishers. His best bet of the day comes from Race 5.
Also, view FREE DRF Past Performances for today’s Race of the Day.
BEST BET: Bourbon Flight (5th race)
Fifth Race
1. Bourbon Flight
2. Laughnowcrylater
3. Tessuto
BOURBON FLIGHT has raced in three routes. First of them, he won a one-mile Tapeta $30K maiden-claimer – nothing special. Second of them, back to dirt, he ran quite well, closing for second behind a well-meant winner who absolutely walked on the lead. And then last time, he got himself into a good stalking position, responded when asked, went on to a solid $50K N2L claiming win – and was claimed. Out of claiming and into a conditioned starter race, he fits like a glove, both in terms of recent performance, projected continued development, and expected race shape. Think he’s better than the figures suggest and a likely winner here – unless LAUGHNOWCRYLATER comes back from a seven-month layoff with a vengeance. He might. Found his 6/13 work encouraging from multiple angles – way he looked, how far and willingly he galloped out, as a sign of fitness, and the further race fitness that work ought to have imparted. Missed by a nose in his lone try at this level. TESSUTO ships from SoCal for this – which is odd, especially since he’s a sprinter trying a route. I think he makes the lead, and in previous two turn tries, he stayed on decently.
Here are Marcus’s thoughts on the other ten races on Sunday’s Churchill Downs card.
First Race
1. Rugged Love
2. The Hund
3. Tilt a Twirl
RUGGED LOVE, first of all, might not have loved a wet track, and while that’s speculation, no doubt he was very green in his debut, swerving about in the homestretch before getting onto a straight line. Came back to work encouragingly. Likely to improve now. THE HUND ran all right drawn on the rail inside 11 foes two back at KEE in dirt debut, then did all the dirty work pushing the pace before getting run down late. On the right path, and don’t see why the recent form can’t sustain. The visuals (and a look at the competition) to me don’t match up with a superior speed figure for TILT A TWIRL. Not especially impressed with anything in the two races – a contender, but not crediting with more than that.
Second Race
1. Gardiner
2. Slider
3. Upturned Brim
Thought GARDINER would run better — as in, win — if his comeback race last out rained off turf and onto his preferred surface, dirt. Not a bad run, but also disappointing vis-à-vis the established baseline. Quick drop from $50K down to lowest level, $20K, obviously not a good thing, but guess is aggressive barn just trying to strike while the iron is still at least warm. SLIDER drops in claiming price off a win, but it’s an illusory drop as he just won a conditioned claimer and moves into open claiming ranks. Think he’ll run to that form and favorably drawn outside pace rival Gardiner, but that’s a more formidable foe than he beat last out, and I still think Slider’s ideal trip is 5 1/2 furlongs. UPTURNED BRIM keeps getting claimed – and I’m not quite sure why. Don’t think there’s that much to the horse and don’t see the upside.
Third Race
1. Dance Like This
2. Lily’s Revenge
3. Starfinder
Lone work video for DANCE LIKE THIS pretty encouraging for a horse debuting in a $50K maiden-claimer, and that price is 2.5X the published purchase price. At one point, we had TTC work video, but that was last year, and nothing recent – thus, no idea what those fast works at the training center really mean for firster LILY’S REVENGE. The trainer stats with firsters that you’re seeing don’t really paint a clear picture – longer term, and outside a pair of $30K MCL debut winners, there’s been little success with first-timers. STARFINDER appeared to tire late but wasn’t bad in her debut, and the barn has strong numbers with second-time starting maidens.
Fourth Race
1. Cynical Humor
2. Babysitter
3. Blackwing
CYNICAL HUMOR didn’t have speed in the three sprints to start her career, but neither did she fall a mile behind in the early stages – so, I’m not sure she has to be as far back routing as she was last out. In fact, it was the poor early and middle position that left her with no chance – she finished as well as or better than anyone save the winner of that MSW, but no one in the lead group tired after they set such a slow tempo. She’ll fit at this level, perhaps a price lower than the listed odds. Not sure about BABYSITTER on turf, but to me she’s the most likely winner if this rains onto the main track. If lone recent work video is any guide, one can see why they focused on sprints with BLACKWING – she seems very aggressive. Even after pulling much too hard while placed inside a workmate June 13, she still finished pretty well. Think there’s a measure of talent here if it can be harnessed.
Sixth Race
1. Osbourne
2. Curahee
3. Classic Time
My assessment of this race in two words: No clue! I could list a bunch of horses I don’t like – not finding any I actually do like. OSBOURNE, at least, is down in class while possibly headed back to a peak, albeit one lower than his 2025 high-water mark. Led last time but can stalk effectively? Maybe? Probably needs to in a pace-filled field. Feel like I’m supposed to take CURAHEE here – he fits as well as anyone, should get the right trip, and suppose you could just toss the 9f turf race off the claim last out. Don’t trust him and don’t trust steep class-dropper CLASSIC TIME, either. The old “front wraps on” bugaboo last out. Seemingly headed the wrong direction at the wrong price.
Seventh Race
1. Raconteuse
2. Plot
3. Heart Spin
RACONTEUSE in turf routes had tried nothing but MSWs – competitive in several – before getting the drop to $50K maidens last out. Class relief really helped – decisive winner. Was it just the faster pace that allowed her to rate more comfortably from stalking position than she has at times? Or is she a maturing horse who can handle this step up in class to $80K N2L claiming? Tell you what helps in that regard – the race seems soft for the level. PLOT was decent last season as a 3yo in her first year of racing and seems to have taken her game up a notch this year. Second-after-layoff improvement last time does not preclude another forward step now, but the post position hurts. HEART SPIN a bad draw and a tough trip when dropped all the way down to $30K N2L claiming last time despite several decent runs at the N1X allowance level. She can’t make her own race and probably won’t win, but a closing top-three finish seems well within her scope in this group.
Eighth Race
1. Castle Run
2. Tapcon
3. Krewezin
CASTLE RUN got away badly from an outside draw, which led to a lot of ground loss, and he still managed third of 10 in a $50K maiden. Winner won by almost 4 lengths, came back (not for a tag) with a strong run 6/12 at BAQ, earning an 89 Beyer. Four works since the April 30 race – my guess is that $250K purchase price being treated as a sunk cost, and the drop here is to win before meet’s end. TAPCON debuted against none other than Derby – Belmont winner Golden Tempo, a stablemate, as it happens, of Castle Run. Not great, but not awful first out, and one could say the same about second start at LS. Think he could put a complete race together and prove quite competitive with $30K maidens. KREWEZIN scratched from a $50K maiden-claimer May 25. Gap in works but June 6 breeze video – decent out of the gate, a little erratic through stretch as rider tried to get her to switch leads – not terrible!
Ninth Race
1. Envision
2. Bold Strength
3. Only Phil
ENVISION scratched from a tougher race at this class level but did not miss any work – I liked him there, like him here. Impressive debut over the winter, encouraging work, and don’t see why he can’t take his talents from synthetic to dirt and upset BOLD STRENGTH – though worth noting “live” horses from this outfit recently been getting crushed in wagering. Bold Strength looks clearly “the one to beat” here, and the move from inside draw to outside could prove quite a plus for this horse. ONLY PHIL one of two foals to race out of Mia Torrri, the other being Two Phils, second in the 2023 Derby (probably shoulda won). Two Phils level talent? No, but did flash some ability in a two-start 2yo campaign. First time as a gelding in first start back from a very long break. Rail draw no bargain. Next time?
Tenth Race
1. Sanctify
2. Cloe
3. High Fashion Kate
SANCTIFY won here maiden over 1 1/8 miles and has been tried as far as 1 1/2 miles on turf, and I hardly can believe I’m taking her to win this 5 1/2-furlong grass dash – but here we are. Signs that those longer distances weren’t what she wanted, and if she could kick sharply enough to run well over one mile, maybe even 5 1/2 is in range if she gets the right pace? And on paper, she’s getting the right pace. CLOE looks on paper like a horse set to improve second after a layoff with a decent comeback run – she might, but I really don’t trust her to do so, and barely rate her above HIGH FASHION KATE, 1 1/4 lengths behind Cloe in their common last start. Both should get swept into a favorable race flow.
Eleventh Race
1. Blue Mountains
2. Meanstepper
3. Accord
Was last time supposed to be The Time for BLUE MOUNTAINS? Maybe – he ran a winning race that just wasn’t quite good enough to win. I’m going the other direction: First two races without blinkers and Lasix, next two races on Tapeta, and the last two – at a much higher level – represent who he actually is right now. And that horse probably just wins this. MEANSTEPPER from his four outings has three blah starts and one that suggests he fits this spot – going to be a price while on a class drop for barn going quite well late in the CD meet. Maybe blinkers-on helps ACCORD, or maybe after going synthetic debut to dirt second start and improving, he’s ready to hit a peak anyway in third career start
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