MLB Best Bets Today May 15
It is rivalry weekend in Major League Baseball and somehow 11 of the 15 rivalry games are interleague matchups. It sure seems to me like division games are better examples of rivalries than Guardians vs. Reds or Red Sox vs. Braves, but what do I know? That said, there are some compelling ones, like the Subway Series and Orioles vs. Nationals, where the history of those two teams has been marred by TV rights disputes.
We’ve got some solid pitching matchups on the slate for today as well, and also some “prove it” games for guys off to nice starts that are facing some pretty strong lineups.
I’ll be posting my daily best bets Monday-Saturday with a Sunday Night Baseball preview on Sunday, as all the day games make it tough to get something out with lead time out here in Las Vegas. All lines are from DraftKings and are current at the time of publish. Please take the initiative to SHOP AROUND for the best odds. It matters. A lot.
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Greg Peterson will have his best bets posted the night before and you can also check out his daily lines to see what looks to be off-market. Steve Makinen has also released his updated Bullpen Betting Systems and DraftKings Splits Systems, plus he’ll have a daily analytics report.
Feel free to use my opinions and thoughts, as well as our suite of MLB Betting Tools, including the DraftKings and Circa Betting Splits, Steve Makinen’s Daily Ratings, Greg Peterson’s Daily Lines, the 1st 5 Innings Analyzer, and Umpire Stats. Check out our new MLB tools powered by Ballpark Pal: Strikeout Projections, Park Factors, and YRFI Report.
Here are the MLB best bets today for May 15:
Toronto Blue Jays (-126, 8) at Detroit Tigers
6:45 p.m. ET
International bragging rights are apparently on the line in this series, as the Tigers and Blue Jays square off. Detroiters can simply look across the river and see Windsor, so I guess that makes this a rivalry in some respects, since Toronto is Canada’s Team.
Anyway, Trey Yesavage gets the call for Toronto, while Detroit will go with opener Brenan Hanifee and then turn it over to Ty Madden, who has been a hugely important piece to this team while dealing with a number of pitching injuries. It could be a tough day for hitters, as a decent breeze should be blowing in from right field to help out pitchers that may not need much help anyway.
Yesavage has made three starts since a delay set back the start of his season. He made his 2026 MLB debut on April 28 with 5.1 shutout innings against the Red Sox and he’s allowed one run on 13 hits in his 13.1 innings overall. His 94.7% LOB% won’t hang around forever, as his 0.68 ERA, 2.16 xERA, and 2.21 FIP show. That said, his .361 BABIP shouldn’t hang around either. He’s been a fly ball pitcher thus far with just a 29.4% GB% and has allowed just a 19.4% Hard Hit%, but he’s somehow given up a hit per inning. There is a lot of real estate in the outfield at Comerica Park, so that should help, along with a Tigers team that ranks 24th in wOBA against RHP over the last 14 days.
Hanifee has worked 8.1 innings with one run allowed on a solo homer. He’s a 50% GB% guy inducing a lot of weak contact, as he had five straight scoreless appearances before giving up a run last time out. He did go three innings back on May 5, but hasn’t gone more than an inning in his last two appearances. Either way, Hanifee is inducing a lot of ground balls and so is Madden.
Madden has made two bulk relief appearances covering 11 innings with a 12/2 K/BB ratio and a 59.3% GB%. He allowed three runs last time out, but on just two hits. One of them was a homer, though, and that made a huge impact because it was a three-run shot. Other than that, Madden’s been quite good.
I also think he matches up pretty well with the Blue Jays. Through his two appearances, Madden has a 61% F-Strike%, 11.9% SwStr%, and a 33.3% Chase Rate with just a 39.3% Zone%. The Blue Jays are one of the most aggressive lineups in baseball. One of the reasons why the offense is down this season is because they’re swinging at a lot of pitches that are hard to drive. They have the league’s second-highest Chase Rate and second-highest rate of contact on pitches outside the zone. As a result, they are 26th in Hard Hit% and 27th in Barrel%.
Both bullpens had yesterday off, so most everybody should be available. I expect both “starters” to have success here between Yesavage and Hanifee/Madden, so I’m looking for a low-scoring game.
Pick: Under 8 (-110)
Milwaukee Brewers at Minnesota Twins (-110, 9)
7:10 p.m. ET
Chad Patrick and Joe Ryan start off this game between the Brewers and Twins, as Milwaukee will use Patrick as a bulk guy who starts. Patrick basically lost his rotation spot and has appeared twice in relief, allowing just two hits and a walk to 13 batters with six strikeouts. Patrick is a guy that doesn’t normally generate a lot of swing and miss and has some periodic control issues, but his stuff plays up in a relief capacity.
He is technically getting the start here, but he’s going to go out there for a short burst and probably not even turn the lineup over more than 1.5 times unless he’s really shoving. I’d guess that the Brewers are looking for about three innings or so and then adopt a Johnny Wholestaff approach. I’m guessing Shane Drohan is a big part of that and he’s been strong with a 3.24 ERA, 2.72 xERA, and a 2.39 FIP in his rookie season. Pat Murphy is a smart guy and this is a brilliant organization, so they’ll have a plan and execute it.
On the Minnesota side, I am not remotely convinced that Ryan is healthy. He saw a velo uptick against Cleveland last time out and only allowed one run on two hits, but that’s a pretty poor lineup these days. Ryan struck out five, walked three, and allowed a 60% Hard Hit%. He only had a 45.8% F-Strike% and just a 4.6% SwStr%, as the Guardians only chased 19.6% of the time on pitches outside the zone.
Ryan’s vertical release point was down pretty drastically and that can sometimes be an injury indicator. If nothing else, I think he’s trying to find an arm slot that doesn’t hurt. Cleveland made some hard contact, but couldn’t capitalize on it. Their five batted balls on fastballs had an xBA of .297 and a xSLG of .590. They were 0-for-5 on them. For a guy who throws a lot of fastballs, I’m concerned about the level of life on it.
Milwaukee is sixth in wOBA over the last 14 days against RHP. Minnesota is 18th. The Twins are also 27th in relief ERA this month, while Milwaukee is sixth and also second in xERA.
Pick: Brewers -110
Arizona Diamondbacks (-126, 11.5) at Colorado Rockies
8:40 p.m. ET
During Colorado’s last homestand, they had a game postponed due to snow. As they head home today, it’ll be 80 degrees with a helping breeze out to left field. It should be a good night for hitters based on the pitching matchup, but the weather is pretty good for batting as well.
Merrill Kelly gets the call for the Diamondbacks here. I tried to fade him last time out and he lowered his ERA to 7.62 and his FIP to 6.65 with seven innings of one-run ball against the Mets. But, he’s hardly fixed. Kelly struck out six and walked three and had a 13.5% SwStr%, but he continued to get hit hard. He allowed a 64.7% Hard Hit% and four Barrels on 17 batted ball events. His xERA for that individual start was 5.24, as he allowed his highest average exit velocity of the season. The Mets deserved a much better fate in that game.
At Coors Field, with a huge outfield and the thin air, Kelly’s going to need much better command to survive and I don’t know that he’s going to have it. It’ll be his sixth start of the season, but he hasn’t really looked great in any of them.
Meanwhile, Kyle Freeland gets the call for the Rockies and he has a 6.00 ERA with a 5.18 xERA and a 5.48 FIP over 30 innings of work. Since coming back from the IL, he’s allowed 17 runs on 23 hits in 14.1 innings of work. He’s struck out 15 and walked four, but he’s been giving up some hard contact as well and has allowed six homers in that span.
The Diamondbacks just ate a blown save on Wednesday and they still have some issues in high-leverage, despite a sub-2.00 reliever ERA this month. The Rockies are 28th in relief ERA in May. Everything is set up for runs in this one.
Pick: Over 11.5 (-112)
