MLB Best Bets Today July 18
The return to action was interesting yesterday, as some teams looked happy to be back at work and others looked like they were still on vacation. Everything will settle in more and more with each passing day, though the upcoming Trade Deadline does add some uncertainty to the clubhouse. Nevertheless, we’ve got 16 games on the docket today with a double dip in Cleveland. As usual, in the interest of lead time, my focus is further down the schedule.
I’ll be posting my daily best bets Monday-Saturday with a Sunday Night Baseball preview on Sunday, as all the day games make it tough to get something out with lead time out here in Las Vegas. All lines are from DraftKings and are current at the time of publish. Please take the initiative to SHOP AROUND for the best odds. It matters. A lot.
One new offering this baseball season is our Opta AI Player Prop Projections. They are for VSiN Pro Subscribers only, so you can check out our current offers here. Zachary Cohen will be using those projections and his own handicapping to write up MLB player props.
Greg Peterson will have his best bets posted the night before and you can also check out his daily lines to see what looks to be off-market. Steve Makinen has also released his updated Bullpen Betting Systems and DraftKings Splits Systems, plus he’ll have a daily analytics report.
Feel free to use my opinions and thoughts, as well as our suite of MLB Betting Tools, including the DraftKings and Circa Betting Splits, Steve Makinen’s Daily Ratings, Greg Peterson’s Daily Lines, the 1st 5 Innings Analyzer, and Umpire Stats. Check out our MLB tools powered by Ballpark Pal: Strikeout Projections, Park Factors, and YRFI Report.
Here are the MLB best bets today for July 18:
Cardinals vs. Diamondbacks Prediction
Pick: Cardinals +100
Dustin May and Brandon Pfaadt are two guys that have had very interesting MLB careers for a variety of reasons and they’ll match up here at Chase Field. May threw 101 pitches in back-to-back starts on June 9 and June 15, including a complete game one-hitter against the Padres in the second of those two outings. Since then, he’s allowed 13 runs on 17 hits in just 11.1 innings of work with seven walks and 14 strikeouts.
While he’s only on one extra day of rest here thanks to the All-Star Break, I think the escape should have helped to clear his head. His Stuff+ and Location+ numbers look really good this season, as he sports a 4.55 ERA with a 3.75 xERA and a 3.26 FIP. With a .317 BABIP against and a 64.5% LOB%, he hasn’t benefitted a lot from a good defense behind him, but hopefully that evens out for him here in the second half.
Pfaadt has made a substantive change to his delivery, as he’s moved over on the pitching rubber. That was a change instituted down in the minors, where Pfaadt made three starts and then got called back up. In three starts since, he has a 1.72 ERA with a 2.50 xERA and a 2.84 FIP, but I’m not fully buying in. While the one walk over 60 batters faced is awesome, he still has just 10 strikeouts. He only has a 7.9% SwStr% in that span with a 63.2% O-Contact% and a 95.9% Z-Contact%. If he can keep inducing a ton of weak contact, there’s some staying power here, but Pfaadt’s primary issue has been allowing hard contact with a career 42.4% Hard Hit% and a 10% Barrel%.
If he’s fixed that by moving on the slab, so be it. It looks coincidental at first glance to me. If it sticks and he throws the ball well today, I’ll give him his flowers. But, I do think May should return with a vengeance and the Cardinals pick up the underdog victory. I am also a bit concerned about how last night’s game ended, as Ketel Marte had challenges and didn’t use them on a borderline pitch that would have been called a ball. Something feels off with the vibes in the desert.
Dodgers vs. Yankees Prediction
Pick: Emmet Sheehan (-105) vs. Ryan Weathers H2H Strikeouts
Under the ‘Pitcher’ tab on DraftKings, you’ll find the H2H Strikeouts market with Sheehan and Weathers. Weathers is a pretty big favorite here, even though both guys are lined at 5.5, though Sheehan’s juice is on the Under side of the spectrum.
Sheehan has a 26.6% K% this season and a 14.4% SwStr% with a 35% Chase Rate. Weathers has a 26.9% K% with an 11.2% SwStr% and a 29.4% Chase Rate. The Yankees have struck out in 25.7% of their plate appearances against RHP in the month of July, while the Dodgers have only struck out 19.5% of the time against LHP in that span.
This is likely predicated on the expectation of Weathers working deeper into the game than Sheehan, but the latter is a guy whose SIERA and xERA are much lower than his traditional ERA, so there are positive regression signs in the profile.
Both guys have a 109 Pitching+, but Sheehan’s generated a higher rate of Whiffs and seems to have the stronger matchup from a strikeout perspective.
