WNBA Picks
Basically, nothing went according to plan on a wacky Friday night in the WNBA. The Fever gave up over 100 points to the Storm, Chicago beat LA by double digits as just 1.5-point favorites, the Mercury gave up 90+ to the Sun at home in a loss, and Toronto forgot how to play basketball in the fourth quarter against Atlanta, giving up 111 points total. Saturday has three games on the slate, featuring the NY Liberty visiting the Indiana Fever, the Portland Fire visiting the Minnesota Lynx, and the Golden State Valkyries hosting the Washington Mystics. Here are the TSI projections for Saturday.
Indiana Fever (+1.5) vs NY Liberty, O/U 177.5
As I mentioned, Indiana escaped with a home win yesterday but not before giving up over a hundred to the worst offense in the league. Now, the Liberty come to town with some major regression coming at some point for the preseason title favorites. TSI projects Liberty -0.5 with a total of 182.5, and I like the Liberty and the Over here. There’s about 11.5 points of regression coming, favoring New York since they’ve been playing 6.5 points below their season average lately, while Indiana has been 5.5 points above theirs.
Bet: Liberty -1.5 or better
Bet: Over 177.5 or better
Minnesota Lynx (-13.5) vs Portland Fire, O/U 175.5
Minnesota has been playing 1.5 points below its season average over the last three games, while Portland has been playing an astounding 12.5 points above its season average over the last three, so Minnesota is potentially going to be the recipient of a major negative regression here for Portland. TSI projects Minnesota -16.5 with a total of 173.5, and I like the Lynx here, even at a big number. Portland is playing its fourth road game in a week, on top of them playing other-worldly relative to their season average, so I think Minnesota may deliver a real knockout punch here against a team that’s a couple points worse on the road than they are at home.
Bet: Lynx -13.5 (Play to -14)
Golden State Valkyries (-9.5) vs Washington Mystics, O/U 148.5
This game is not likely to be nearly as exciting as the Storm/Fever game from Friday, with a total set in the 140s. My patience is also thin with Washington, who is easily the most inconsistent team in the league. The regression numbers like Washington and Under in this game, and TSI projects Valkyries -8.5 with a total of 150.5, but I want no part of this game. The Valkyries have been 2.5 points better over their last three, and their games have been about 3.5 points lower scoring than their season average (opponent-adjusted). Washington has been 1.5 points worse than their season average over the last three, and their games have been 6.5 points lower scoring than usual. Interesting numbers here, but I’m going to pass.
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