MLB Best Bets Today July 9
With the All-Star Break on the horizon, we have a very busy Thursday card with 26 of the league’s 30 teams in action. The card is split 6 and 7 between day games and night games and, in the interest of lead time, those seven games are the ones up for consideration and the ones in the spotlight for today’s top plays.
I’ll be posting my daily best bets Monday-Saturday with a Sunday Night Baseball preview on Sunday, as all the day games make it tough to get something out with lead time out here in Las Vegas. All lines are from DraftKings and are current at the time of publish. Please take the initiative to SHOP AROUND for the best odds. It matters. A lot.
One new offering this baseball season is our Opta AI Player Prop Projections. They are for VSiN Pro Subscribers only, so you can check out our current offers here. Zachary Cohen will be using those projections and his own handicapping to write up MLB player props.
Greg Peterson will have his best bets posted the night before and you can also check out his daily lines to see what looks to be off-market. Steve Makinen has also released his updated Bullpen Betting Systems and DraftKings Splits Systems, plus he’ll have a daily analytics report.
Feel free to use my opinions and thoughts, as well as our suite of MLB Betting Tools, including the DraftKings and Circa Betting Splits, Steve Makinen’s Daily Ratings, Greg Peterson’s Daily Lines, the 1st 5 Innings Analyzer, and Umpire Stats. Check out our MLB tools powered by Ballpark Pal: Strikeout Projections, Park Factors, and YRFI Report.
Here are the MLB best bets today for July 9:
Brewers vs. Cardinals Prediction
Pick: Cardinals +113
Rain does threaten today’s NL Central matchup between the Brewers and Cardinals, but I’ll take a shot with the underdog Redbirds here. Logan Henderson gets the start for Milwaukee as he returns from the IL after about a seven-week absence. He’s been outstanding at the MLB level this season in five starts with just seven runs allowed on 18 hits and 30 strikeouts against six walks, all accumulating in a 2.74 ERA with a 2.99 xERA and a 2.42 FIP.
In two minor league rehab starts, Henderson allowed two runs on four hits and struck out 11 of the 25 batters that he faced over 6.1 innings. He did work some pretty deep counts over 3.1 innings in his last start, as he threw 68 pitches. Major League hitters may be able to take advantage of that and, if nothing else, get him out of the game early.
Andre Pallante goes for the Cardinals tonight with a 3.60 ERA, 3.69 xERA, and a 3.92 FIP in his 95 innings of work. Pallante has cut down the walks this season and hasn’t walked more than two batters in a start since May 12. That’s a big deal for a pitch-to-contact, ground ball guy like him. He has a 53.9% GB% and one of the best defensive teams in baseball behind him. By being more efficient with his pitches, he’s worked deeper into games and also kept those free passes off the basepaths, both of which have helped his overall profile.
STL has one of the lowest K% against LHP this season, so I’m hoping that they can use that to their advantage against Henderson. Also, the Milwaukee pen has had a pretty big workload over the last few days, including the high-leverage guys. At this plus-money price, with some uncertainty thanks to Henderson’s return, they’re worth a shot in my estimation.
Rockies vs. Giants Prediction
Pick: Ryan Feltner (COL) 5+ Strikeouts (+150)
Feltner gets the start today at Oracle Park, as he faces the Giants for the second straight time. He struck out nine over six innings at Coors Field last time out with a season-high 19.3% SwStr% and 41.9% Chase Rate. He seemed to have all of his pitches working well in that outing and now gets to pitch at sea level, where his stuff has the chance to move a bit more.
Feltner has an 11.2% SwStr% for the season even though only four of his 12 starts have come on the road. He didn’t strike out any Twins in his last road start, but did pitch really well. Back on June 16, he struck out seven of the 23 Cubs he faced over 4.2 innings. His other two road starts were both way back in April, as he had four strikeouts in four innings against the Padres on April 11, but gave up six runs and didn’t work deep enough into the game. He had four punchies in three innings against Toronto in his first start of the season.
Since returning from the IL for his May 30 start, Feltner has a 61.5% F-Strike%, 11.1% SwStr%, and a pretty good 86.3% Z-Contact%. I think he has a good shot of getting to this plus-money price.
