MLB Best Bets Today June 3
Four traditional getaway day games make up part of the 15-game MLB schedule today, as we get very early starts in D.C., TB, MSP, and Seattle with start times ranging from 1:05 p.m. ET to 3:40 p.m. ET. The rest of the slate is on tap for 6:40 p.m. ET or later and will leave us with a nine-game slate on Thursday.
I’ll be posting my daily best bets Monday-Saturday with a Sunday Night Baseball preview on Sunday, as all the day games make it tough to get something out with lead time out here in Las Vegas. All lines are from DraftKings and are current at the time of publish. Please take the initiative to SHOP AROUND for the best odds. It matters. A lot.
One new offering this baseball season is our Opta AI Player Prop Projections. They are for VSiN Pro Subscribers only, so you can check out our current offers here. Zachary Cohen will be using those projections and his own handicapping to write up MLB player props.
Greg Peterson will have his best bets posted the night before and you can also check out his daily lines to see what looks to be off-market. Steve Makinen has also released his updated Bullpen Betting Systems and DraftKings Splits Systems, plus he’ll have a daily analytics report.
Feel free to use my opinions and thoughts, as well as our suite of MLB Betting Tools, including the DraftKings and Circa Betting Splits, Steve Makinen’s Daily Ratings, Greg Peterson’s Daily Lines, the 1st 5 Innings Analyzer, and Umpire Stats. Check out our new MLB tools powered by Ballpark Pal: Strikeout Projections, Park Factors, and YRFI Report.
Here are the MLB best bets today for June 3:
Royals vs. Reds Prediction
Pick: Under 8.5 (-115)
It will be Stephen Kolek for the Royals and Chase Burns for the Reds in a battle of starters who go about things in very different ways. Kolek can touch the mid-90s, but he’s not a swing-and-miss guy, rather a guy who leverages a deep pitch arsenal down in the zone to induce a lot of ground balls. Kolek has a 48.4% GB% in his 31 innings this season with only 19 strikeouts, but he’s also only issued six walks and has limited the opposition to a 35.8% Hard Hit% and a 6.3% Barrel%.
Kolek gave up six runs in five innings last time out, but got no help whatsoever from his defense with two unearned runs and some grounders that found holes. He had thrown 15.1 scoreless innings prior to that and maybe coming off of the complete game was a bit tough for him, as he threw 108 pitches in that one. He had a lighter workload in his most recent start, so I’d anticipate better results here against a Reds lineup missing Elly De La Cruz.
Burns, on the other hand, is a fireballer who has tons of swing-and-miss capability in his arsenal. He’s struck out 72 in his 64.1 innings of work and 139 in 107.2 innings overall. Burns had one rough start at home against the Angels in early April accounting for five of the 14 runs he has allowed. That means he’s given up nine runs over his other 10 starts and has held the opposition scoreless four times.
The Royals enter this one 28th in wOBA against RHP over the last 14 days, slashing a paltry .202/.282/.317 with a .271 wOBA. They have a 9.5% BB% otherwise they’d be last offensively in this split, but that may not help much against Burns, who has an 8.0% BB%.
These are two guys with the pitch efficiency to work deep into the game and the bullpens, which have had their ups and downs lately, should have everybody available.
Athletics vs. Cubs Prediction
Pick: Athletics +109
It has been a tale of two seasons for the A’s based mostly on where the game is being played. This one on the North Side of Chicago comes after a 2-1 win last night, in which the A’s improved to 18-14 on the road. They’ve only given up 3.34 runs per game while traveling across North America compared to over 6.4 runs per game at home.
Jeffrey Springs has splits that fit that mold, as he’s allowed a .204/.275/.380 slash on the road with just a .290 wOBA. All of his numbers are higher – and some are much higher – at home. He’s pitched to a 3.60 ERA in his 30 road innings and a 4.46 ERA in his 36.1 innings in Sacramento.
The southpaw Springs gets a Cubs lineup that has slashed .136/.196/.175 over the last 112 plate appearances against lefties, good for a wRC+ of 8. Meaning that the Cubs are 92% below league average in that split over the last 14 days. It is a small sample size and they’ve been better than league average against southpaws for the season, but they’re not hitting them right now. Granted, they’re not really hitting much of anybody right now with a .214/.306/.316 slash over the last two weeks as a whole.
Colin Rea has hit the skids for the Cubs, kind of falling in line with when the team did. Over his last four starts, Rea has a 5.91 ERA with a 6.45 xERA and a 6.23 FIP in 21.1 innings of work. He’s allowed five homers with a poor 14/8 K/BB ratio and has surrendered 12 Barrels in that span. I hopped on the A’s Cast yesterday with Chris Townsend and talked about how the A’s aren’t elevating the ball enough. That shouldn’t be a problem here against Rea, who has a 36.4% GB% in his last four starts.
The A’s also have a 2.83 road ERA as a bullpen unit, which ranks third in the league, holding opponents to a .222/.288/.314 slash and a .270 wOBA. Everybody just seems to have more confidence away from Sacramento. I think that shines through again tonight.
Pirates vs. Astros Prediction
Pick: Astros +129
Betting against Paul Skenes probably isn’t the smartest idea, but there’s a method to the madness tonight. Skenes has a 2.89 ERA with a 2.29 xERA and a 2.72 FIP on the season in his 65.1 innings of work. He continues to have strong ratios and his 67.8% LOB% is going to rise as the season goes along, lowering his ERA even further.
He has allowed 12 runs over his last 15.1 innings of work and hasn’t been terribly efficient with his pitches, racking up just 46 outs in that span. That has meant some heavy lifting for the Pirates pen in his starts, which is not really something that we are accustomed to seeing.
The odds are against Spencer Arrighetti to continue what he’s been doing. He has a 1.34 ERA with a 4.70 xERA and a 3.98 FIP. His 89.3% LOB% is going to regress at some point and his high BB% will catch up with him. But, he’s done such a good job of minimizing hard contact and keeping the ball in the park that it hasn’t hurt him yet. He’s got a 3.9% HR/FB% and has allowed just a 29.8% Hard Hit% with a 5.8% Barrel%.
Arrighetti hasn’t allowed more than two earned runs in any of his eight starts to this point. He has also limited lefties to a .156/.350/.200 slash with a .284 wOBA, a big deal when Pittsburgh’s biggest boppers are left-handed sticks.
Even if we do get regression from Arrighetti, maybe it won’t happen until he hits the road. He owns a career 3.13 ERA over 106.1 innings at Daikin Park, with a .187/.283/.340 slash against and a .279 wOBA. On the road, he has a 4.76 ERA in 121 innings with a .265/.367/.423 slash and a .349 wOBA. He’s been comfortable at home and he’s at home here.
Josh Hader just returned for the Astros, so that’ll put the pieces back in place and everybody back in their roles in the bullpen. If Arrighetti can cancel out Skenes or maybe even be just a little bit better, then I’m sitting on about +130 in a bullpen battle that the Astros can absolutely win.
