MLB Picks Today:
Expert baseball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top MLB picks today for Thursday, July 2.
Check out Greg’s Daily MLB Lines and his Baseball Betting Show Podcast. Also, check out our MLB Betting Splits and tools from our friends at Ballpark Pal, including Strikeout Prop Projections and the MLB YRFI Report.
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7:10 PM Eastern
Chicago White Sox vs. Cleveland Guardians
White Sox starting pitcher Anthony Kay owns a 4.50 ERA and a 5.00 fielding independent with 7.3 strikeouts and 3.5 walks per nine innings, but will benefit from facing a Guardians lineup that entered this series averaging fewer than 3.3 runs per game over its past 25 games. Guardians starting pitcher Gavin Williams has a 3.81 ERA with 1.3 home runs allowed and 10.4 strikeouts per nine innings, but has been much better at home, posting a 2.74 ERA with only 0.9 home runs allowed per nine innings.
Pick: Guardians Moneyline -130 and Under 9 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Guardians -146 and Total 7.9
Baltimore Orioles vs. Cincinnati Reds
Reds starting pitcher Brady Singer has struggled this season, posting a 5.12 ERA and 5.82 fielding independent with 2.2 home runs allowed per nine innings, but he has allowed three earned runs or fewer in five of his past six starts. He faces an Orioles lineup that ranks 12th in scoring overall with 4.6 runs per game, but drops to 19th on the road with 4.3 runs per game. Orioles starting pitcher Trevor Rogers has a 4.99 ERA but a better 3.99 fielding independent with one home run allowed per nine innings. He isn’t generating many swings and misses with 6.9 strikeouts per nine innings and is backed by a bullpen that ranks 19th with a 4.34 ERA.
Pick: Reds Moneyline +110 and Under 10.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Reds -132 and Total 9.4
7:15 PM Eastern
New York Mets vs. Atlanta Braves
Braves starting pitcher Grant Holmes has a 3.96 ERA and a 5.19 fielding independent with 1.6 home runs and 4.3 walks allowed per nine innings. He faces a Mets lineup that ranks last in the National League in road scoring with just over 3.6 runs per game. Mets starting pitcher Christian Scott owns a 3.20 ERA and 3.93 fielding independent with 10.6 strikeouts and 4.2 walks per nine innings. He is backed by a bullpen that ranks fourth in ERA at 3.41, while the Braves lead the league at 2.72.
Pick: Braves Moneyline -116 and Under 9.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Braves -144 and Total 8.6
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Houston Astros
The Rays are expected to give Nick Martinez the start. He has been a master at inducing soft contact, posting a 2.66 ERA while recording only 5.5 strikeouts per nine innings with 0.9 home runs and 1.6 walks allowed per nine innings. Astros starter Spencer Arrighetti owns a 4.00 ERA and 4.65 fielding independent with 4.6 walks per nine innings and has allowed at least three runs in each of his past five starts. He is also backed by a bullpen that ranks 20th in ERA at 4.35.
Pick: Rays Moneyline -108
Greg’s Handicap: Rays -133
9:38 PM Eastern
Boston Red Sox vs. Los Angeles Angels
Angels starting pitcher Reid Detmers has pitched better than his 3.88 ERA would indicate, as he owns a 2.96 fielding independent with 10.1 strikeouts per nine innings and only 0.7 home runs allowed per nine innings. He has not been helped by a bullpen that ranks 24th in ERA at 4.61 or a lineup that ranks 24th in home scoring with four runs per game. While the Red Sox rank 29th overall in scoring with fewer than four runs per game, they improve to 16th on the road with more than 4.4 runs per game. Red Sox starter Jake Bennett owns a 3.27 ERA and 3.11 fielding independent with 0.5 home runs and 1.9 walks allowed per nine innings and is backed by a bullpen that ranks fifth in ERA at 3.43.
Pick: Red Sox Moneyline -102
Greg’s Handicap: Red Sox -126
9:40 PM Eastern
Miami Marlins vs. Athletics
Marlins starting pitcher Tyler Phillips owns a 3.02 ERA, though his 4.39 fielding independent with 6.9 strikeouts and 4.1 walks per nine innings is a concern. The Marlins have the better bullpen, entering Thursday ranked third in ERA at 3.39, while the Athletics rank 27th at 4.98. Oakland is expected to start Jack Perkins, who has a 6.00 ERA, though his 3.62 fielding independent with 10.9 strikeouts per nine innings points toward positive regression.
Pick: Marlins Moneyline +110
Greg’s Handicap: Marlins -116
