Paraguay vs. France | 2026 FIFA World Cup Round of 16 | Saturday, July 4 | 5PM ET | Lincoln Financial Field | Philadelphia
Paraguay (+1700) | Draw (+600) | France (-550)
Over 2.5 Goals (-160) | Under 2.5 Goals (+130)
Paraguay +1.5 (+135) | France -1.5 (-170)
We are down to 16 teams, and Saturday sees tournament favorites France (+180 to lift the trophy) face Paraguay, a side who knocked off Türkiye and Germany to advance further than anyone expected.
Paraguay stunned four-time world champions Germany on penalties after a 1-1 draw in Foxborough. Julio Enciso headed the opener—Paraguay’s first ever World Cup knockout stage goal—before goalkeeper Orlando Gill starred in the shootout to send La Albirroja into the last 16 for the first time since 2010.
France swept past Sweden 3-0 at MetLife Stadium as Kylian Mbappé’s brace took his World Cup tally to 18 goals—one behind all-time leader Lionel Messi. Bradley Barcola also scored in a dominant display that extended Les Bleus’ perfect start to four wins from four.
France are heavy favorites in Philadelphia, but Paraguay have already proven they can take down a giant in knockout football—can they take down the tournament’s biggest one?
PARAGUAY TEAM NEWS
Paraguay’s goalscoring hero against Germany, Julio Enciso, was substituted in the 57th minute after appearing to suffer a muscular injury. The Strasbourg forward is expected to be fit to start up front alongside Gabriel Ávalos.
José Canale impressed at center-back against Germany and should keep his place with Omar Alderete still struggling with a knee injury picked up in the group stage.
In central midfield, Brighton’s Diego Gomez is available for selection after serving a one-match ban for picking up two yellow cards in the group stage.
Paraguay Predicted Lineup 4-4-2
Manager: Gustavo Alfaro
GK: O. Gill
RB: J. Cáceres | CB: G. Gómez | CB: J. Canale | LB: J. Alonso
RM: D. Gómez | CM: A. Cubas | CM: D. Bobadilla | LM: M. Almirón
CF: G. Ávalos | CF: J. Enciso
FRANCE TEAM NEWS
The only injury concern for France is Marcus Thuram. Considering the form of Kylian Mbappé, Michael Olise and Ousmane Dembélé, he would be on the bench if fit and available. Didier Deschamps will have to make a decision between Désiré Doué and Bradley Barcola for the wide left attacking spot.
It looks like Lucas Digne has edged ahead of Theo Hernández for the left-back spot after starting against Sweden. Manu Koné has impressed in central midfield and is knocking on the door for a starting spot at the expense of Adrien Rabiot or Aurélien Tchouaméni. As we get deeper in the tournament and France meet better opposition, don’t be surprised if Deschamps switches to a 4-3-3 with all three lining up in midfield.
France Predicted Lineup 4-2-3-1
Manager: Didier Deschamps
GK: M. Maignan
RB: J. Koundé | CB: W. Saliba | CB: D. Upamecano | LB: L. Digne
CM: A. Tchouaméni | CM: A. Rabiot
RM: O. Dembélé | AM: M. Olise | LM: D. Doué
CF: K. Mbappé (C)
MATCH BREAKDOWN
Paraguay have surpassed all expectations to get this far and have a combination of their excellent defensive organization and fierce fighting spirit to thank for their success.
They also owe a great deal to goalkeeper Orlando Gill. Per Sofascore, he has made 19 saves totaling 1.85 xG and two penalty saves in the shootout win over Germany—a game in which he received a 9.9 rating. Since their 4-1 defeat to the USA in the opening game, Paraguay have conceded just one goal.
But a big piece of their success comes down to Lady Luck. In their last three games, where they’ve conceded just once, opponents have racked up 65 shots with seven of them being big chances totaling 4.29 xG. To say their goal has lived a charmed life is an understatement, and we’re about to find out how much luck is left against France, the strongest attacking side at this tournament.
Les Bleus are the highest scorers with 13 goals from 9.20 xG, creating 19 big chances and hitting the woodwork four times. They’re averaging 18.2 shots per game with 8.5 on target. France have been solid at the other end too. If we take away the dead rubber against Norway, they’ve kept clean sheets in two of their three competitive fixtures, allowing a total of 1.86 xG. They restricted a Sweden attack featuring Alexander Isak and Viktor Gyökeres to just 0.70 xG.
They face a Paraguay side who, since their 4-1 opening defeat to the USA, have scored just twice and neither goal came from a high-quality chance—the one against Türkiye registered at 0.03 xG and the one against Germany came in at 0.07 xG. I think we’ll see a third clean sheet for France.
The numbers speak for themselves—France create chances at will and prevent them, while Paraguay have been conceding them at an unsustainable rate and creating very little in attack.
THE BET
If you’ve had the pleasure of watching Les Bleus at this tournament, you’ll know that they don’t just pass the eye test, they set the bar for it. Deschamps has this forward line in sync and rolling over everyone they’ve faced so far. Paraguay will put up a spirited fight, but this France attack is a different beast—the sportsbooks agree, with DraftKings setting their moneyline at -550 and -2000 to advance.
I got burned by France in the group stage backing them with a short ladder to score over 3.5 (+123) and over 4.5 (+274) team goals against Iraq. We have better numbers for this game with over 3.5 at +241 and over 4.5 at +536, and it is tempting considering the stats I laid out in the match breakdown section.
Instead, I’m going to back France to win both halves at +115 for my first bet. I’m confident they’ll find a way past Gill in the first half and pick them off in the second half when Paraguay have to open up and chase the game.
My second bet is a Same Game Parlay: France Team Total Goals Over 1.5 (-334) and Both Teams To Score No (-195), which comes out at -105. This is essentially backing France Win to Nil, which is -150, but we’re getting a much better price backing them to score two or more goals when they’ve managed three or more in every game so far.
For Anytime Goalscorer in 90 minutes, I think we’ll see Mbappé continue his claim for the Golden Boot, but his -160 price is one I’m not interested in. I’m going to pass on Michael Olise (+195) too. Paraguay’s shape will congest the central areas making him more likely to register an assist. Instead, I’m looking to the wide areas where Paraguay’s defensive shape will push the ball. Doué and Barcola are the best priced at +175 but it’s hard to choose one with Deschamps rotating both. That leaves me with Dembélé at +125. He was ruthless against Norway, drifting in from the right to score a hat trick. I’m backing him to get on the scoresheet here.
Paraguay have ridden their luck all the way to the Round of 16, but it’s time to pay the piper. At the final whistle, France will be one game closer to winning the World Cup—which means I’ll be one step closer to cashing my +700 France futures ticket.
Pick: France Win Both Halves +115
Pick: Same Game Parlay France Team Total Goals Over 1.5 (-334) and Both Teams To Score No (-195) = -105
Pick: Anytime Goalscorer in 90 Minutes Ousmane Dembélé +125
