MLB Picks Today:
Expert baseball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top MLB picks today for Friday, May 1.
Check out Greg’s Daily MLB Lines and his Baseball Betting Show Podcast. Also, check out our MLB Betting Splits and tools from our friends at Ballpark Pal, including Strikeout Prop Projections and the MLB YRFI Report.
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2:20 PM Eastern
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Chicago Cubs
Diamondbacks starting pitcher Zac Gallen was removed from his last start after taking a line drive off his body, and while he owns a 3.14 ERA, his 5.3 strikeouts per nine innings are way down from his career average of 9.4 strikeouts per nine innings. Cubs starting pitcher Colin Rea has a 4.61 ERA, but his 3.89 fielding independent points toward positivity with one home run and three walks per nine innings allowed, and he is supported by an offense that is third in scoring with nearly 5.5 runs per game, while the Diamondbacks are 24th in bullpen ERA at 4.93.
Pick: Cubs Moneyline -130 (Greg’s Handicap Cubs -152)
6:40 PM Eastern
Texas Rangers vs. Detroit Tigers
Both starting pitchers have had command issues this season, with Tigers starter Jack Flaherty posting a 5.33 ERA with 1.4 home runs and 7.8 walks per nine innings, while Rangers starter MacKenzie Gore owns a 4.35 ERA with 1.5 home runs and 4.4 walks per nine innings allowed. While the Rangers have the lowest ERA in the league at 2.82, they have had issues producing offense, ranking 26th in scoring with 3.9 runs per game, while the Tigers are eighth in scoring at home with 5.2 runs per game.
Pick: Tigers Moneyline -109 (Greg’s Handicap Tigers -134)
6:45 PM Eastern
Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Pirates starting pitcher Mitch Keller has gotten off to a nice start to the season with a 3.18 ERA and 3.09 fielding independent with 0.3 home runs per nine innings allowed, while Reds starting pitcher Brady Singer has a 4.97 ERA and 4.98 fielding independent with 1.6 home runs per nine innings allowed and faces a Pirates lineup that is sixth in scoring at home with 5.3 runs per game. The Pirates are eighth in bullpen ERA at 3.74.
Pick: Pirates Moneyline -125 (Greg’s Handicap Pirates -149)
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Washington Nationals
Brewers starting pitcher Jacob Misiorowski is leading qualifying National League starting pitchers in strikeouts with 14.1 strikeouts per nine innings, along with a 3.31 ERA. Nationals starting pitcher Jake Irvin owns a 4.85 ERA with 1.2 home runs per nine innings allowed after posting a 5.70 ERA with 1.9 home runs per nine innings allowed last season and is backed by a bullpen that is 23rd in ERA at 4.90. Both offenses are off to strong starts, with the Nationals second in scoring with 5.5 runs per game while the Brewers are sixth with 5.1 runs per game.
Pick: Brewers Run Line -1.5 +112 and Over 8 Runs (Greg’s Handicap Brewers -1.5 -118 and Total 9.1)
7:10 PM Eastern
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins
Phillies starting pitcher Zack Wheeler looked solid in his first start of 2026 with two runs allowed in five innings as he tries to regain his 2025 form, when he had a 2.71 ERA with 11.7 strikeouts and two walks per nine innings. Marlins starting pitcher Eury Perez has a 4.60 ERA with 1.7 home runs and four walks per nine innings but has been a completely different pitcher at home throughout his career, with a lifetime ERA of 2.45 in Miami with just over 0.8 home runs per nine innings allowed, while his ERA rises to 5.16 away from home with nearly 1.9 home runs per nine innings allowed. He faces a Phillies lineup that entered Thursday 28th in run production with 3.7 runs per game.
Pick: Phillies vs. Marlins Under 8 Runs (Greg’s Handicapped Total 7.1)
8:40 PM Eastern
Atlanta Braves vs. Colorado Rockies
Rockies starting pitcher Jose Quintana has been shaky to begin the season, posting a 4.91 ERA with a 6.77 fielding independent, giving up more walks than strikeouts with 4.4 strikeouts and 5.4 walks per nine innings and allowing two home runs per nine innings. Braves starting pitcher Grant Holmes has a 3.62 ERA but a much higher 4.88 fielding independent with 1.4 home runs and 3.9 walks per nine innings allowed, but he has behind him a lineup that entered Thursday leading the league in scoring with just under 5.7 runs per game.
Pick: Braves vs. Rockies Over 10.5 Runs (Greg’s Handicapped Total 11.3)
9:40 PM Eastern
Chicago White Sox vs. San Diego Padres
Padres starting pitcher German Marquez has been shaky to begin the season, posting a 4.38 ERA with a 5.87 fielding independent while allowing 2.2 home runs per nine innings and faces a White Sox lineup that is 12th in road run production with nearly 4.6 runs per game and is third in home runs per at-bat on the road. White Sox starting pitcher Noah Schultz has a 3.52 ERA in his three career MLB starts, but walks are an issue with 5.3 walks per nine innings, which is made worse by the White Sox ranking 22nd in bullpen ERA at 4.88.
Pick: Padres Moneyline -138 and Over 8 Runs (Greg’s Handicap Padres -177 and Total 8.5)
Cleveland Guardians vs. Athletics
Guardians starting pitcher Joey Cantillo has yet to fully solve his walk issues, giving up 3.9 walks per nine innings, but he has still started the season strong with a 2.97 ERA and 10.3 strikeouts per nine innings. Athletics starting pitcher JT Ginn has a solid 3.24 ERA, but his 4.88 fielding independent with 1.4 home runs and 3.2 walks per nine innings allowed is a major concern. Though the Guardians are 20th in bullpen ERA this season at 4.34, they have lowered it over the past week and appear to be getting back on track after having the third-lowest bullpen ERA in the league in 2025.
Pick: Guardians Moneyline +102 (Greg’s Handicap Guardians -113)
