MLB Picks Today:
Expert baseball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top MLB picks today for Saturday, July 11.
Check out Greg’s Daily MLB Lines and his Baseball Betting Show Podcast. Also, check out our MLB Betting Splits and tools from our friends at Ballpark Pal, including Strikeout Prop Projections and the MLB YRFI Report.
Our Opta AI MLB Player Prop Projections are also available.
2:10 PM Eastern
Athletics vs. Chicago White Sox
Athletics starting pitcher Gage Jump has been effective since being promoted from the minor leagues, allowing three earned runs or fewer in six of his eight starts. He owns a 3.77 ERA and a 3.53 fielding independent while allowing 0.8 home runs and 2.7 walks per nine innings. White Sox starting pitcher Erick Fedde should feel fortunate that his ERA is 4.34, as he owns a 5.37 fielding independent with just six strikeouts per nine innings while allowing 1.6 home runs and 3.6 walks per nine innings.
Pick: Athletics Moneyline -108
Greg’s Handicap: Athletics -132
4:05 PM Eastern
New York Yankees vs. Washington Nationals
The Nationals lead the league in scoring with 5.4 runs per game and rank first in on-base plus slugging percentage against left-handed pitchers and seventh against right-handed pitchers. They face Yankees starting pitcher Cam Schlittler, who owns a 2.01 ERA with 10.5 strikeouts and 1.7 walks per nine innings. His ERA drops to 1.04 on the road. Meanwhile, the Yankees entered the series averaging just under 3.3 runs per game over their past 19 games. Nationals starter Miles Mikolas owns a 5.78 ERA with two home runs allowed per nine innings, but that mark drops to 4.78 over his past 17 appearances.
Pick: Yankees vs. Nationals Under 9 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 8.4
4:10 PM Eastern
Seattle Mariners vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Rays starting pitcher Griffin Jax has rounded into better form, posting a 3.60 ERA overall that drops to 2.89 as a starter. However, his season-long 4.48 fielding independent and 1.7 home runs allowed per nine innings suggest some regression. Mariners starter Logan Gilbert owns a 3.19 ERA with 9.6 strikeouts and 1.8 walks per nine innings, and his ERA falls to 1.73 on the road while allowing just 0.2 home runs per nine innings. He is also backed by a bullpen that ranks fifth in ERA at 3.52, while the Rays rank 21st at 4.38.
Pick: Mariners Moneyline +100
Greg’s Handicap: Mariners -119
6:10 PM Eastern
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Detroit Tigers
Phillies starting pitcher Cristopher Sánchez has been reliable all season, posting a 2.62 ERA with 0.8 home runs and 1.8 walks allowed per nine innings, even after the uncharacteristic nine-run outing he suffered against the Royals in his last start. Tigers starter Casey Mize has been outstanding as well, posting a 2.64 ERA with just 0.6 home runs allowed and nine strikeouts per nine innings. He faces a Phillies lineup that ranks 27th in scoring with 3.9 runs per game.
Pick: Phillies vs. Tigers Under 7.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 6.6
7:10 PM Eastern
Chicago Cubs vs. Cincinnati Reds
Reds starting pitcher Nick Lodolo owns a rough 4.68 ERA and a 5.04 fielding independent this season while allowing 3.7 walks per nine innings. However, he has been better recently, allowing two runs or fewer in four of his past five starts. Cubs starter Javier Assad owns a 4.15 ERA but a higher 5.10 fielding independent while pitching to plenty of contact, recording just 5.3 strikeouts per nine innings and allowing 1.6 home runs per nine innings.
Pick: Reds Moneyline +102 and Under 10.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Reds -114 and Total 9.8
7:15 PM Eastern
Atlanta Braves vs. St. Louis Cardinals
Cardinals starting pitcher Matthew Liberatore has struggled, posting a 5.34 ERA while allowing 1.7 home runs and 3.6 walks per nine innings. He is backed by a bullpen that ranks 18th in ERA at 4.31. The Braves counter with Reynaldo López, who owns a 3.18 ERA and a 4.24 fielding independent. He also benefits from facing a Cardinals offense with the largest home-and-road scoring split in the league, averaging 5.5 runs per game on the road, which ranks second, but just 3.7 runs per game at home, which ranks 28th.
Pick: Braves Moneyline -115
Greg’s Handicap: Braves -127
8:40 PM Eastern
Toronto Blue Jays vs. San Diego Padres
Padres starting pitcher Walker Buehler enters this start struggling, having allowed 16 runs over nine innings across his past two starts. Overall, he owns a 5.07 ERA this season. Blue Jays starter Trey Yesavage has dealt with command issues, issuing 3.9 walks per nine innings, but he owns a 3.31 ERA overall, which drops to 2.91 on the road. The Padres rank last in the league in scoring with 3.9 runs per game, and that falls to just 3.6 runs per game at home.
Pick: Blue Jays Moneyline +104
Greg’s Handicap: Blue Jays -111
