MLB Picks Today:
Expert baseball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top MLB picks today for Saturday, May 9.
Check out Greg’s Daily MLB Lines and his Baseball Betting Show Podcast. Also, check out our MLB Betting Splits and tools from our friends at Ballpark Pal, including Strikeout Prop Projections and the MLB YRFI Report.
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3:07 PM Eastern
Los Angeles Angels vs. Toronto Blue Jays
Angels starting pitcher Jack Kochanowicz has gotten off to a solid start in 2026 with a 3.05 ERA through seven starts after having a 6.81 ERA last season, but logging 6.5 strikeouts and 4.6 walks per nine innings is a bit concerning, and an even bigger concern is being backed by an Angels bullpen that is 28th in ERA at 5.96, while Blue Jays starting pitcher Trey Yesavage has not gone deep into either of his two starts this season but has been effective with one run allowed in a combined 9 1/3 innings as he prepares to face an Angels lineup that is sixth in road scoring with just under 5.5 runs per game.
Pick: Blue Jays Run Line -1.5 +125
Greg’s Handicap: Blue Jays Run Line -1.5 -104
4:05 PM Eastern
Athletics vs. Baltimore Orioles
Athletics starting pitcher Aaron Civale has started the season in good form with a 2.95 ERA, but his 3.98 fielding independent with just 6.6 strikeouts per nine innings is a concern, while Orioles starting pitcher Shane Baz has pitched better than his 4.99 ERA would indicate with a 4.15 fielding independent, allowing only 0.9 home runs per nine innings and facing an Athletics lineup that is 21st in road scoring with four runs per game. The Orioles are seventh in run creation at home with 5.1 runs per game.
Pick: Orioles Moneyline -130
Greg’s Handicap: Orioles -144
4:10 PM Eastern
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox
While Red Sox starting pitcher Payton Tolle has had a dynamic start to the 2026 season, posting a 2.04 ERA with 11.7 strikeouts per nine innings, he is coming off a 2025 season in which he had massive struggles with a 6.06 ERA with 2.8 home runs and 4.4 walks per nine innings allowed in his seven MLB appearances, while Rays starting pitcher Nick Martinez is likely to see regression on his 1.71 ERA as he is pitching to quite a bit of contact with six strikeouts per nine innings and a 3.43 fielding independent. He is supported by a lineup that is eighth in road scoring with 4.8 runs per game.
Pick: Rays Moneyline +130 and Over 8 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Rays +123 and Total 8.6
Houston Astros vs. Cincinnati Reds
Astros starting pitcher Spencer Arrighetti has been one of the few bright spots for the team’s pitching staff, posting a 1.96 ERA through four starts, but his 3.88 fielding independent with 5.5 walks per nine innings is a concern, especially if it leads to him leaving the start earlier than expected, as the Astros have the highest bullpen ERA in the league at 6.29, while Reds starting pitcher Chase Burns has a 2.20 ERA this season, but his 3.43 fielding independent points toward regression and he faces an Astros lineup that is seventh in run production with 4.9 runs per game.
Pick: Astros vs. Reds Over 8 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 8.7
6:10 PM Eastern
Minnesota Twins vs. Cleveland Guardians
Twins starting pitcher Joe Ryan has had a bit of a shaky start to the season with a 3.72 ERA, and while his 3.01 fielding independent with 9.3 strikeouts and 2.3 walks per nine innings are good signs of positivity, he has allowed over 1.5 home runs per nine innings on the road for his career and is backed by a Twins bullpen that is 29th in ERA at 5.81, while Guardians starting pitcher Tanner Bibee has a 4.58 ERA with 1.4 home runs and 3.7 walks per nine innings, but was significantly better at home than on the road last season and that has continued this season, posting a 1.66 ERA with one home run in 21 2/3 innings at home compared to an 8.15 ERA on the road with five home runs allowed in 17 2/3 innings.
Pick: Guardians Moneyline -108
Greg’s Handicap: Guardians -131
7:05 PM Eastern
Chicago Cubs vs. Texas Rangers
Cubs starting pitcher Edward Cabrera has improved his command, issuing a career-best three walks per nine innings, helping him start the season with a solid 3.27 ERA, and he gets to pitch in one of the best ballparks in baseball at suppressing offense in Arlington, reflected by the Rangers being last in runs per game at home with 2.7, while Rangers starting pitcher Jack Leiter has a 5.45 ERA, but his fielding independent is a full point lower at 4.45 with 10.2 strikeouts per nine innings and is supported by a Rangers bullpen that owns the lowest ERA in the league at 2.98.
Pick: Cubs vs. Rangers Under 8.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 7.6
7:10 PM Eastern
Detroit Tigers vs. Kansas City Royals
Tigers starting pitcher Ty Madden had a strong first appearance of the season at the MLB level with five scoreless innings and seven strikeouts, but his 4.71 ERA with 1.3 home runs and 5.1 walks per nine innings at the minor league level this season suggests that may have been an outlier, while Royals starting pitcher Michael Wacha is off to a nice start to 2026 with a 3.05 ERA, allowing one home run and three walks per nine innings. He is supported by a lineup that has been at its best at home, ranking last in road scoring with 2.9 runs per game and sixth in scoring at home with 5.2 runs per game.
Pick: Royals Moneyline -130
Greg’s Handicap: Royals -148
7:15 PM Eastern
St. Louis Cardinals vs. San Diego Padres
Padres starting pitcher Randy Vasquez has had a career renaissance in 2026, posting a 3.20 ERA with 0.9 home runs per nine innings and increasing his strikeout rate to 8.1 strikeouts per nine innings after sitting at 5.3 last season, while Cardinals starting pitcher Dustin May has pitched better of late but still owns a 5.15 ERA with a career-low 6.1 strikeouts per nine innings and is backed by a bullpen that is 25th in ERA at 4.77.
Pick: Padres Moneyline -130
Greg’s Handicap: Padres -153
9:10 PM Eastern
Atlanta Braves vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
The Dodgers get back starting pitcher Blake Snell, who is making his first start of the season, and while Snell is a two-time Cy Young Award winner, he has usually struggled in his first start of the season with a lifetime 4.57 ERA with 1.3 home runs and 4.3 walks per nine innings. Snell also pitched just eight total innings in three minor league rehab starts, while Braves starting pitcher Spencer Strider is making his second start of the season after allowing three runs in 3 1/3 innings in his first outing on the road against the Colorado Rockies after posting a rough 4.45 ERA with 1.4 home runs and 3.7 walks per nine innings. He is aided, however, by having an offense behind him that leads the league in scoring with 5.7 runs per game.
Pick: Braves vs. Dodgers Over 8.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 9.1
