MLB Picks Today:
Expert baseball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top MLB picks today for Sunday, June 28.
Check out Greg’s Daily MLB Lines and his Baseball Betting Show Podcast. Also, check out our MLB Betting Splits and tools from our friends at Ballpark Pal, including Strikeout Prop Projections and the MLB YRFI Report.
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1:35 PM Eastern
Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Reds starting pitcher Brady Singer has been better of late, allowing three earned runs or fewer in each of his past five starts. However, he still owns a 4.81 ERA and a 5.75 fielding independent with 2.1 home runs and 3.1 walks per nine innings. Pirates starting pitcher Mitch Keller has struggled as well, posting a 4.89 ERA, but his 4.16 fielding independent with 0.9 home runs and 3.3 walks per nine innings points toward positive regression. He is also supported by a lineup that leads the league in scoring at home with 5.4 runs per game, while the Reds rank 25th in bullpen ERA at 4.72.
Pick: Pirates Moneyline -124
Greg’s Handicap: Pirates -162
Washington Nationals vs. Baltimore Orioles
Nationals pitcher Zack Littell has had a rough season overall with a 5.40 ERA and a 6.52 fielding independent while allowing 2.5 home runs per nine innings. However, he has pitched significantly better behind an opener, posting a 3.42 ERA with 1.5 home runs per nine innings allowed out of the bullpen compared to a 6.31 ERA with three home runs per nine innings allowed as a starter. He is supported by an offense that leads the league in scoring with 5.3 runs per game. Orioles starting pitcher Kyle Bradish has battled command issues, posting a 3.64 ERA while allowing 4.2 walks per nine innings.
Pick: Nationals Moneyline +170
Greg’s Handicap: Nationals +149
Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays
Blue Jays starting pitcher Shane Bieber struggled during his minor league rehab assignment, posting a 6.88 ERA while allowing 2.1 home runs per nine innings. He then surrendered three home runs and four total runs in 3⅔ innings against the Astros in his MLB season debut. Rangers starting pitcher Kumar Rocker has displayed dramatic home-and-road splits throughout his career, posting a 3.32 ERA with 0.7 home runs allowed per nine innings at home compared to a 6.55 ERA with more than 1.8 home runs allowed per nine innings on the road.
Pick: Rangers vs. Blue Jays Over 8.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 9.1
Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers
Tigers starting pitcher Jack Flaherty has struggled with his command this season, allowing 4.7 walks per nine innings to go along with a 5.35 ERA, and he is making his first start since coming off the injured list. Astros starting pitcher Hunter Brown has shined in his small sample this season, posting a 1.40 ERA with 13 strikeouts per nine innings while allowing only one home run across four starts. He faces a Tigers offense that ranks 24th in scoring with 4.1 runs per game.
Pick: Astros Moneyline -124
Greg’s Handicap: Astros -144
Cleveland Guardians vs. Seattle Mariners
Mariners starting pitcher Emerson Hancock owns a 3.60 ERA with 8.6 strikeouts and two walks per nine innings. Guardians starting pitcher Gavin Williams has a 3.82 ERA with 1.4 home runs allowed per nine innings, but he is also recording 10.3 strikeouts per nine innings. His ERA drops to 2.64 at home, where he has allowed just one home run per nine innings. Meanwhile, the Guardians entered Saturday averaging only 2.9 runs per game over their past 20 contests.
Pick: Guardians Moneyline -108 and Under 7.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Guardians -127 and Total 7.2
2:10 PM Eastern
Colorado Rockies vs. Minnesota Twins
Twins starting pitcher Connor Prielipp has pitched better than his 5.17 ERA would indicate, posting a 3.93 fielding independent with 8.9 strikeouts and one home run allowed per nine innings. Rockies starting pitcher Ryan Feltner pitches to plenty of contact, recording just 6.7 strikeouts per nine innings while allowing 1.3 home runs and issuing 3.8 walks per nine innings.
Pick: Rockies vs. Twins Under 9 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 8.7
7:15 PM Eastern
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox
Yankees starting pitcher Carlos Rodón owns a 3.70 ERA but a lower 3.49 fielding independent while allowing just 0.7 home runs per nine innings and recording 10 strikeouts per nine innings. Red Sox starting pitcher Sonny Gray has a 2.91 ERA but a higher 3.81 fielding independent, and his 7.8 strikeouts per nine innings are his fewest since 2016. He is backed by a bullpen that ranks third in the league with a 3.25 ERA, but the Red Sox offense ranks last in home scoring at 3.5 runs per game.
Pick: Yankees Moneyline +105 and Under 8 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Yankees -114 and Total 7.8
