MLB Picks Today:
Expert baseball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top MLB picks today for Thursday, April 16.
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12:35 PM Eastern
Washington Nationals vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Both offenses may be due for regression as the Nationals ranked first in the league with 5.8 runs per game entering Wednesday, but may be due for regression after ranking 20th in scoring last season with just over 4.2 runs per game, and the same goes for a Pirates lineup that was seventh in scoring entering Wednesday with over five runs per game after ranking last in scoring with 3.6 runs per game and send Braxton Ashcraft to the mound, who owns a lifetime 2.60 ERA and 2.56 fielding independent with 0.5 home runs allowed per nine innings, while Nationals starting pitcher Foster Griffin has allowed just three runs across 15 1/3 innings in his three starts this season after spending the past three seasons overseas.
Pick: Nationals vs. Pirates Under 9 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 8.4
12:40 PM Eastern
San Francisco Giants vs. Cincinnati Reds
Reds starting pitcher Chase Burns has pitched better than his lifetime 4.22 ERA would indicate, posting a 3.24 fielding independent with 12.8 strikeouts per nine innings since getting called up to the MLB level in 2025 while Giants starting pitcher Landen Roupp last season had a 3.80 ERA with just 0.9 home runs per nine innings allowed, but had command issues with 3.8 walks per nine innings and is supported by a lineup that entered Wednesday last in the league in scoring with less than 3.1 runs per game.
Pick: Reds Moneyline -115
Greg’s Handicap: Reds -136
1:35 PM Eastern
Los Angeles Angels vs. New York Yankees
Yankees starting pitcher Max Fried has for the second straight season started strong, posting a 1.93 ERA with no home runs allowed through four starts this season with just 1.6 walks per nine innings allowed while the Angels are likely to go with a wholesale approach with their official starter being unannounced as of Wednesday evening, with the bullpen entering Wednesday 20th in ERA at 4.58, while the Yankees offense has been middle of the road to begin the season, ranking 13th in scoring with 4.5 runs per game.
Pick: Angels vs. Yankees Under 9.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 8.7
1:40 PM Eastern
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Blue Jays starting pitcher Patrick Corbin has struggled for years, posting an ERA of 5.20 or higher in four of the past five seasons and though his 2025 season was more respectable with a 4.40 ERA, that was aided by pitching well in Arlington, as he had a 5.38 ERA with over 1.6 home runs per nine innings allowed away from home last season while Brewers starting pitcher Brandon Sproat has struggled to begin 2026 with 12 runs allowed in 10 1/3 innings, but his 2025 fielding independent of 2.80 with no home runs allowed through four starts last season points towards positivity.
Pick: Brewers Moneyline -114
Greg’s Handicap: Brewers -144
3:05 PM Eastern
Texas Rangers vs. Athletics
Rangers starting pitcher Jack Leiter last season had a 3.86 ERA with 1.1 home runs allowed per nine innings, but had command issues with four walks per nine innings and those have lingered into 2026 with 3.7 walks per nine innings and a 4.91 ERA to begin the season while the Athletics as a whole have played high-scoring games in Sacramento, averaging 5.2 runs per game at home entering Wednesday, while the pitching staff as a collective owns a 6.46 ERA at home, which is the worst in the American League and starting pitcher Jacob Lopez has allowed 11 runs and 13 walks in his three starts across 13 1/3 innings this season.
Pick: Rangers vs. Athletics Over 9 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 9.9
6:10 PM Eastern
Baltimore Orioles vs. Cleveland Guardians
Since getting called up to the MLB level in 2025, Guardians starting pitcher Parker Messick has been lights out with a 2.04 ERA in 10 starts with 0.8 home runs and 1.7 walks per nine innings allowed and faces an Orioles lineup that is 26th in road scoring with fewer than 3.2 runs per game, while Orioles starting pitcher Shane Baz has struggled to a 4.84 ERA since the start of the 2025 season with 1.3 home runs and 3.4 walks per nine innings allowed.
Pick: Guardians Moneyline -115
Greg’s Handicap: Guardians -147
