MLB Picks Today:
Expert baseball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top MLB picks today for Wednesday, April 22.
Check out Greg’s Daily MLB Lines and his Baseball Betting Show Podcast. Also, check out our MLB Betting Splits and tools from our friends at Ballpark Pal, including Strikeout Prop Projections and the MLB YRFI Report.
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12:10 PM Eastern
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Miami Marlins
Marlins starting pitcher Janson Junk does a good job of not hurting himself, allowing just 0.7 home runs and 1.1 walks per nine innings last season with a 3.14 fielding independent. While his ERA this season sits at 4.50, his 3.90 fielding independent with 0.8 home runs and 2.5 walks per nine innings suggests better underlying performance. Cardinals starting pitcher Kyle Leahy is transitioning from the bullpen to a starting role this season and currently owns a 5.21 ERA with 6.2 strikeouts and 3.8 walks per nine innings, and he is backed by a bullpen that ranks 26th in ERA at 5.36.
Pick: Marlins Moneyline -125
Greg’s Handicap: Marlins -148
1:10 PM Eastern
Cincinnati Reds vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Reds starting pitcher Brandon Williamson has returned from missing the 2025 season to post a 4.35 ERA thus far in 2026, but his 6.01 fielding independent, along with more walks than strikeouts (5.2 strikeouts to 5.7 walks per nine innings), is a concern. He faces a Rays lineup that ranks 12th in scoring with over 4.7 runs per game, while the Reds are 26th in run production with fewer than 3.7 runs per game. Rays starting pitcher Nick Martinez had a 4.45 ERA while pitching for this very Reds team last season and has looked rejuvenated with the Rays, posting a 2.45 ERA, though his 5.7 strikeouts per nine innings after recording 6.2 strikeouts per nine innings last season could point toward regression.
Pick: Rays Moneyline -126
Greg’s Handicap: Rays -159
Houston Astros vs. Cleveland Guardians
The Astros have a strong offense, ranking fourth in scoring with 5.4 runs per game, but the pitching has been in shambles, with their bullpen ranking 29th in ERA at 5.66. They send Peter Lambert to the mound for his second start of the season after pitching overseas last year. He owns a lifetime 6.30 ERA with 1.6 home runs and 3.5 walks per nine innings allowed and gave up four runs in five innings in his Astros debut last week. Guardians starting pitcher Tanner Bibee is off to a shaky start to 2026 with a 4.81 ERA with 1.5 home runs and 3.5 walks per nine innings, but he was significantly better at home last season, posting a 3.22 ERA with 0.8 home runs per nine innings allowed compared to a 5.17 ERA with 1.8 home runs per nine innings on the road.
Pick: Guardians Moneyline -125 and Over 8 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Guardians -149 and Total 8.8
2:10 PM Eastern
Baltimore Orioles vs. Kansas City Royals
Orioles starting pitcher Chris Bassitt has had a rough start to the 2026 season, posting a 6.19 ERA with 6.2 walks and 3.9 strikeouts per nine innings. Royals starting pitcher Michael Wacha has been magnificent to begin the season with a 1.00 ERA through five starts, allowing 0.7 home runs and 2.7 walks per nine innings, and he faces an Orioles lineup that ranks 24th in scoring on the road with just over 3.6 runs per game.
Pick: Royals Moneyline -125
Greg’s Handicap: Royals -136
3:07 PM Eastern
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Los Angeles Angels
Angels starting pitcher José Soriano has been historically good to begin this season, surrendering 11 hits and one run across 32 2/3 innings in five starts for a 0.28 ERA. Blue Jays starting pitcher Eric Lauer has struggled, posting a 7.13 ERA with two home runs and 5.1 walks per nine innings allowed, though he is coming off a career resurgence in 2025 with a 3.18 ERA, 8.8 strikeouts, and 2.2 walks per nine innings. He faces an Angels lineup that entered Tuesday 28th in scoring at home with 3.2 runs per game, while the Blue Jays rank 23rd overall in scoring with four runs per game.
Pick: Blue Jays vs. Angels Under 8.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 7.9
6:45 PM Eastern
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox
Red Sox starting pitcher Ranger Suárez has a 3.22 ERA but is allowing a lot of contact with just six strikeouts per nine innings. The Yankees entered the series ninth in scoring with five runs per game after leading the league last season with 5.2 runs per game. The Red Sox offense should also see improvement after ranking sixth in scoring last season with 4.8 runs per game but entering this series 20th with just under 4.1 runs per game. Yankees starting pitcher Max Fried owns a 2.97 ERA with just one home run allowed across 33 1/3 innings in five starts this season, though his low strikeout rate of 6.2 per nine innings is a concern.
Pick: Yankees vs. Red Sox Over 7.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 8.1
Atlanta Braves vs. Washington Nationals
Braves starting pitcher Martín Pérez owns a 2.21 ERA so far this season, but his 3.97 fielding independent is a concern as he is recording just 4.4 strikeouts per nine innings. He faces a Nationals lineup that ranks third in the league in scoring with 5.4 runs per game, while the Braves are second with 5.7 runs per game. Nationals starting pitcher Zack Littell had a 3.81 ERA last season but a 4.88 fielding independent with 1.7 home runs per nine innings allowed, and that expected regression has hit hard in 2026, as he owns a 7.11 ERA with a league-high seven home runs allowed in 19 innings. The Nationals bullpen ranks 27th in ERA at 5.57.
Pick: Braves Moneyline -138 and Over 9 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Braves -157 and Total 9.7
8:05 PM Eastern
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Texas Rangers
Pirates starting pitcher Braxton Ashcraft has been electric to begin his MLB career, posting a 2.63 ERA in 30 career appearances with 9.6 strikeouts and just 0.3 home runs allowed per nine innings. Rangers starting pitcher Jack Leiter owns a 4.87 ERA this season, but his 4.16 fielding independent and 10.6 strikeouts per nine innings point toward improvement. He is supported by a bullpen that ranks third in the league in ERA at 2.91. The Pirates offense also sees a dip in production on the road, averaging over 5.5 runs per game at home compared to just under 4.6 runs per game away from home.
Pick: Rangers Moneyline -108
Greg’s Handicap: Rangers -126
