MLB Picks Today:
Expert baseball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top MLB picks today for Wednesday, May 27.
Check out Greg’s Daily MLB Lines and his Baseball Betting Show Podcast. Also, check out our MLB Betting Splits and tools from our friends at Ballpark Pal, including Strikeout Prop Projections and the MLB YRFI Report.
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1:07 PM Eastern
Cincinnati Reds vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Phillies starting pitcher Aaron Nola has struggled this season, posting a 5.91 ERA with 1.8 home runs and 3.5 walks per nine innings, though his 4.84 fielding independent points toward positivity, while Reds starting pitcher Andrew Abbott has a 4.21 ERA with 1.1 home runs per nine innings allowed and enters in his best form of the season, giving up three total runs across 22 2/3 innings in his past four starts. He also faces a Phillies lineup that is 20th in scoring with fewer than 4.3 runs per game.
Pick: Reds vs. Phillies Under 9.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 8.6
Miami Marlins vs. Toronto Blue Jays
Marlins starting pitcher Eury Perez has been shaky this season, posting a 4.91 ERA and 5.00 fielding independent with 1.7 home runs and 4.3 walks per nine innings allowed, which balloons to a 7.03 ERA with 2.2 home runs per nine innings on the road. Although the Blue Jays offense is 22nd in run creation, they are second in the league in fewest strikeouts per at-bat, which neutralizes Perez’s 9.7 strikeouts per nine innings. Blue Jays starting pitcher Kevin Gausman has a 3.23 ERA and even better underlying numbers, posting a 2.85 fielding independent with 0.8 home runs and 1.4 walks per nine innings.
Pick: Blue Jays Run Line -1.5 +145
Greg’s Handicap: Blue Jays -1.5 +102
3:05 PM Eastern
Seattle Mariners vs. Athletics
Mariners starting pitcher Logan Gilbert has been superb on the road this season with a 1.19 ERA and just one home run allowed across 22 1/3 innings, while Athletics starting pitcher Luis Severino owns a 4.23 ERA with 1.2 home runs and 4.5 walks per nine innings allowed. His ERA rises to 5.55 at home and drops to 3.38 on the road. He is also backed up by a bullpen that is 19th in ERA at 4.31, while the Mariners are sixth with a 3.17 bullpen ERA.
Pick: Mariners Moneyline -120
Greg’s Handicap: Mariners -137
4:10 PM Eastern
Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Diego Padres
Phillies starting pitcher Cristopher Sanchez has been nothing short of sensational this season with a 1.64 ERA, 10.7 strikeouts, and two walks per nine innings allowed, while Padres starting pitcher Walker Buehler has pitched better than his 5.05 ERA would indicate, as he owns a 3.72 fielding independent with 0.8 home runs per nine innings allowed. He is also backed up by the better bullpen, as the Padres are fifth in bullpen ERA at 3.15 while the Phillies are 16th at 3.93. On the road, the Phillies rank 24th in scoring with 3.8 runs per game.
Pick: Padres Moneyline +135 and Under 7.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Padres +124 and Total 7
6:40 PM Eastern
Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Cubs starting pitcher Jameson Taillon owns a 5.20 ERA and 6.45 fielding independent with 2.8 home runs per nine innings allowed, while Pirates starting pitcher Bubba Chandler has a 4.79 ERA with 6.5 walks per nine innings issued but is supported by a lineup that ranks third in scoring at home with nearly 5.3 runs per game.
Pick: Pirates Moneyline -110
Greg’s Handicap: Pirates -137
Los Angeles Angels vs. Detroit Tigers
Angels starting pitcher Jose Soriano has been spectacular this season with a 2.44 ERA, 0.7 home runs, and 10 strikeouts per nine innings, while Tigers starting pitcher Casey Mize has also gotten off to a nice start to the season with a 2.47 ERA and 2.52 fielding independent. Detroit is also supported by a much better bullpen, as the Angels are 29th in ERA at 5.41 while the Tigers are 15th at 3.92.
Pick: Tigers Moneyline -120
Greg’s Handicap: Tigers -136
7:40 PM Eastern
New York Yankees vs. Kansas City Royals
Yankees starting pitcher Gerrit Cole looked like his old self in his first MLB start of the season with six shutout innings against the Toronto Blue Jays last week, while Royals starting pitcher Noah Cameron has pitched better than his 4.72 ERA would indicate, supplying a 3.60 fielding independent with 0.9 home runs and three walks per nine innings. He also faces a Yankees lineup that has not been the same away from home, leading the league in scoring at home with nearly 5.7 runs per game but ranking 23rd in road scoring with 3.9 runs per game.
Pick: Yankees vs. Royals Under 9 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 8.3
Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago White Sox
The White Sox are giving David Sandlin the start in his MLB debut after he posted a 0.55 ERA at the minor league level, but length is a massive concern, as he pitched only 16 1/3 total innings in six starts. He is also backed up by a bullpen that is 27th in ERA at 4.75, while the Twins are 26th at 4.70 and send Connor Prielipp to the mound, who owns a 4.03 ERA with 9.3 strikeouts and 1.2 home runs per nine innings allowed.
Pick: Twins vs. White Sox Over 8 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 8.6
