Today’s MLB Betting Trends:
The following MLB betitng trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Sunday, June 7, 2026. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
Trend: PHI is 28-9 (+13.68 units) as a home favorite from -150 to -198 with starter Aaron Nola in the last 6+ seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (-168 vs CWS)
Home teams that failed to record an extra base hit in their previous game bounce back with a 638-528 (54.7%) record in the next contest when at home in that same time span. The profit there is +26.50 units, for an ROI of 2.3%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): TEXAS (-144 vs CLE), ARIZONA (-136 vs WSH)
Since the start of last season, teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) but a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse have gone 221-284 for -64.22 units and an ROI of -12.7! This is another angle that shows that good bullpens are better support for good starting pitching.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MILWAUKEE (-186 at COL), SEATTLE (-105 at DET)
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
Back teams with both a better SM bullpen rating AND starting pitcher rating if that team has an even or worse record
In the 2025 regular season, I found that teams with an even or worse record on the season but showing a better Steve Makinen Bullpen Rating AND starting pitcher rating have gone 207-139 for +48.41 units, and an ROI of +14.0%! The 2-year record on this angle is now 396-266 for +83.41 units and an ROI of 12.6%. This has proven to be a very good foundational angle to follow since the prices aren’t that high typically. It should be a part of your handicapping routine going forward. For 2026, these teams are off to a modest 111-85 start for -0.94 units and an ROI of -0.5%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): TORONTO (-142 vs BAL), KANSAS CITY (-114 at MIN), PHILADELPHIA (-168 vs CWS), MIAMI (-108 vs TB)
STARTER/BULLPEN CORRELATION SYSTEMS
Teams with elite starting pitchers (SM rating higher than 25) and a NEGATIVE SM team bullpen rating in a game went 65-69 for -22.93 units when not matched up against similar in 2025. This represents an ROI of -17.1% and it stands as proof of my belief that the strength of a team’s bullpen HAS TO be accounted for in all games. This is a go against angle, which can often prove as or more valuable than systems that suggest backing teams. For 2026, these teams are 17-17 for –4.95 units.
System Match (FADE): LA ANGELS (+178 at LAD)
Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse wound up 184-226 for -38.36 units for the season when not matched up against the same. This represents an ROI of -9.4%. This is another angle that shows that good bullpens are better support for good starting pitching. This is another go against angle that does well. To start the 2026 season, these teams are again struggling, 37-58 for -25.86 units and an ROI of -27.2%!
System Matches (FADE ALL): MILWAUKEE (-186 at COL), SEATTLE (-105 at DET)
Teams with poor bullpens (NEGATIVE SM rating) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse went 148-267 for -34.71 units when not matched up against the same in 2025. This represented an ROI of -8.4%, another solid FADE angle! For 2026, they are off to a rare positive start, 74-88 for +9.11 units. This is lasting longer than I would expect.
System Matches (FADE ALL): COLORADO (+153 vs MIL), MINNESOTA (-105 vs KC)
Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and a winning percentage >=19% higher than the opponent
A 2023 mid-season bullpen ratings discovery found that some big favorites do prove worthy of backing consistently, regardless of the high prices, because the games are absolute mismatches. After a 133-43 finish for +25 units in the 2025 season, this angle will take a three-year record of 385-146 for +33.01 units (ROI 6.2%) into the 2026 campaign. The 2026 teams meeting this criteria are 32-17 but for -8.87 units so far.
System Match (SLIGHT PLAY): LA DODGERS (-218 vs LAA)
Overpriced better bullpen without big starting pitcher edge angle was the 2023 regular season’s most lucrative system
In combining starting pitcher differences in looking at games with -190 favorites or higher, there was a huge opportunity to be selective in fading overpriced favorites. Specifically, when the starting pitcher difference between the better Steve Makinen rated bullpen team was less than 20, those big favorites have gone 242-160, but for -117.36 units in the 2023-25 regular seasons. That represents an ROI of -29.2%, very solid results. In 2025, these teams were measurably better but still lost -1.48 units for the season. The 2026 teams are off to a 19-7 start for +2.97 units.
System Match (FADE): LA DODGERS (-218 vs LAA)
Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
Perhaps the most popular angle, a frequent and profitable system has arisen when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick em’). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the 2022-23 seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The 2024 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), but we experienced a major bounce back in 2025, as the season record finished at 464-488 for +59.39 units, ROI +6.2%! The 2026 season is off to a slower start, 124-146 for -7.88 units.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): SAN DIEGO (-110 vs NYM), BOSTON (+129 at NYY), SEATTLE (-105 at DET), ATHLETICS (-107 at HOU), CLEVELAND (+119 at TEX), MIAMI (-108 vs TB)
Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
I have found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. In the 2023-2025 regular seasons, on two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup have gone 648-696 for -59.7 units, an ROI of -4.4%. For 2026, they are off to a 79-94 start for -8.27 units.
System Matches (FADE ALL): HOUSTON (-112 vs ATH), WASHINGTON (+113 at AZ)
Worse bullpen teams can fall into lengthy losing streaks
Around midseason of 2025, I went back and found that teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup and having lost at least their last three games had proven to be a nice fade system. For the full 2025 campaign, they wound up 195-269 for -29.1 units, an ROI of -6.3%. We will continue to track this angle in 2026, and it is now 65-73 for +0.74 units.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CINCINNATI (+119 at STL), COLORADO (+153 vs MIL)
MLB Series Systems
The following systems are from an article posted on April 3, 2025 regarding MLB game-by-game betting, particularly the first and last games of a series.
MLB Series Betting System #2: Teams wrapping up a series and riding at least a three-game losing streak are 439-463 but for +28.16 units and an ROI of 3.1% since the start of the 2022 season
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ATHLETICS (-107 at HOU), CINCINNATI (+119 at STL), COLORADO (+153 vs MIL)
MLB Series Betting System #5: Road underdogs of +101 to +187 have been a very good investment in the final game of a series if ending a road trip, going 383-425 but for +93.40 units and an ROI of 11.6% since the start of the 2022 season
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PITTSBURGH (+130 at ATL), CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+139 at PHI), BALTIMORE (+118 at TOR), CLEVELAND (+119 at TEX), LA ANGELS (+178 at LAD), SAN FRANCISCO (+103 at CHC)
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing betting systems for teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game
“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road, if they scored 9 runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 2090-1976 (51.4%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -263.05 units. This represents an ROI of -6.5%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): HOUSTON (-112 vs ATH), LA DODGERS (-218 vs LAA)
Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 2113-2689 (44%) for -272.53 units and an ROI of -5.7% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): SAN FRANCISCO (+103 at CHC), ATHLETICS (-107 at HOU), LA ANGELS (+178 at LAD), NY METS (-110 at SD)
Watch for home teams that didn’t record an extra-base hit
Home teams that failed to record an extra base hit in their previous game bounce back with a 638-528 (54.7%) record in the next contest when at home in that same time span. The profit there is +26.50 units, for an ROI of 2.3%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): TEXAS (-144 vs CLE), ARIZONA (-136 vs WSH)
Divisional blown saves lead to bounce-back
Teams who lost their previous game to a divisional rival from blowing a save have gone 167-91 SU (+40.22 units, ROI: 15.6%) as a pick ’em or favorite in the same-series follow-up game since the start of the 2020 season.
System Match (PLAY): NONE YET BUT WATCH FOR MINNESOTA vs KC (-105 CURRENTLY)
MLB Team Strength Systems
The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios.
MLB Team Strength Betting System #3:
In MLB games with high totals (>= 10.5), Underdogs between the +116 to +180 line range have gone 221-253 SU but for +47.30 units (ROI: 10%) since the start of the 2020 season.
System Match (PLAY): COLORADO (+153 vs MIL)
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following MLB betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Matches: SAN DIEGO -110 (+22 diff), MINNESOTA -105 (+19)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Matches: CHICAGO CUBS -125 (+39 diff), MILWAUKEE -186 (+29), ATLANTA -157 (+18), TORONTO -142 (+15)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Matches: WSH-AZ OVER 8 (+0.7), KC-MIN OVER 8.5 (+0.7), TB-MIA OVER 7.5 (+0.7), MIL-COL OVER 11.5 (+0.6)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Matches: CIN-STL UNDER 9.5 (-1.0), BOS-NYY UNDER 8 (-0.5), LAA-LAD UNDER 8.5 (-0.5)
Team/Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots
The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s teams and starting pitchers have performed in similar spots.
(951) PITTSBURGH (34-31) at (952) ATLANTA (44-21)
Trend: ATL is 33-21 (+17.22 units) on the run line as a ML favorite this season
Trend Match (PLAY): ATLANTA (-1.5 vs PIT)
(955) MILWAUKEE (39-23) at (956) COLORADO (24-41)
Trend: MIL is 16-9 (+10.12 units) on the run line in day games this season
Trend Match (PLAY): MILWAUKEE (-1.5 at COL)
(957) WASHINGTON (33-32) at (958) ARIZONA (33-31)
Trend: WSH is the most profitable team in MLB on the road this season (21-12 record, +18.00 units)
Trend Match (PLAY): WASHINGTON (+113 at AZ)
(959) NEW YORK-NL (28-36) at (960) SAN DIEGO (33-30)
Trend: NYM is 13-21 (-10.75 units) on the road this season
Trend Match (FADE): NY METS (-110 at SD)
Trend: SD is 16-4 (+11.59 units) against non-divisional teams within the -200 to +110 line range with starter Randy Vasquez since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY): SAN DIEGO (-110 vs NYM)
(961) SAN FRANCISCO (26-39) at (962) CHICAGO-NL (34-31)
Trend: CHC is 17-32 (-12.23 units) on the run line as a ML favorite this season
Trend Match (FADE): CHICAGO CUBS (-1.5 vs SF)
(965) BALTIMORE (31-34) at (966) TORONTO (31-34)
Trend: Over the total is 19-10-2 (+8.00 units) in BAL day games this season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): BAL-TOR (o/u at 8.5)
Trend: Kevin Gausman’s teams are 14-19 (-12.23 units) in his last 33 starts vs AL East foes
Trend Match (FADE): TORONTO (-142 vs BAL)
(967) SEATTLE (34-31) at (968) DETROIT (26-39)
Trend: Luis Castillo’s teams are 3-5 (-5.66 units) in his last eight starts vs Detroit
Trend Match (FADE): SEATTLE (-105 at DET)
Trend: Under the total is 13-6-1 (+6.65 units) when Luis Castillo faces teams with a <= 45% win pct since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): SEA-DET (o/u at 8.5)
(969) ATHLETICS (30-34) at (970) HOUSTON (30-36)
Trend: Over the total is 21-12-1 (+7.80 units) in HOU home games this season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): ATH-HOU (o/u at 9)
(971) KANSAS CITY (26-39) at (972) MINNESOTA (30-36)
Trend: KC is 2-14 (-14.44 units) vs LH starters this season
Trend Match (FADE): KANSAS CITY (-114 at MIN)
(973) CLEVELAND (37-29) at (974) TEXAS (31-33)
Trend: TEX is 14-6 (+3.64 units) in the last 20 games as a -144 favorite or higher with starter Jacob deGrom
Trend Match (PLAY): TEXAS (-144 vs CLE)
(975) CHICAGO-AL (34-30) at (976) PHILADELPHIA (34-30)
Trend: PHI is 28-9 (+13.68 units) as a HOME favorite from -150 to -198 with starter Aaron Nola in the last 6+ seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (-168 vs CWS)
(977) TAMPA BAY (37-24) at (978) MIAMI (30-35)
Trend: Over the total is 19-6-3 (+12.40 units) when MIA is a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): TB-MIA (o/u at 7.5)
Top Head-to-Head Series MLB Betting Trends
Series #4: Seattle at Detroit, Fri 6/5-Sun 6/7
Trend: UNDERDOGS are on 18-6 (75%, +17.33 units) surge in the SEA-DET series
– The ROI on this trend is 72.2%
Trend Match (PLAY): SEATTLE (-105 at DET)
Series #9: Kansas City at Minnesota, Thu 6/4-Sun 6/7
Trend: Home teams in the Royals-Twins AL Central rivalry are on a 41-16 (71.9%, +23.64 units) run in head-to-head play.
– The ROI on this trend is 41.5%
Trend Match (PLAY): MINNESOTA (-105 vs KC)
Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the 2023/2024 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:15 a/m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.
As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -8.5% 3-year returns on all side majorities, and -3.4% on total majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #1: When 90% or more of the handle was on the home side of an MLB money line wager since the beginning of the 2023 season, this “super” majority group has fared quite well, going 282-127 (68.9%) for +27.68 units and an ROI of +6.8%. This obviously beats the overall majority handle ROI return by over 15%. If you see 90% or more of the handle backing a host in an MLB game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ATLANTA, PHILADELPHIA, MINNESOTA, ARIZONA, SAN DIEGO
DK MLB Betting Splits system #3: Similarly to #2, Majority handle groups have been steady when not too many of them hop on an underdog side since the beginning of the 2024 season, and in fact, the benchmark was 51-66%. These groups have gone 289-312 (48.1%) for a very minimal -1.8 units loss and an ROI of -0.3%. This represents an improvement of 8.2% on the overall numbers, and gives bettors a chance to stay afloat when they go against the grain.
System Matches (CONSIDER ALL): BOSTON, SAN FRANCISCO
DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going 1074-957 (52.9%) but for -215.64 units and an ROI of -10.6%. This is over two full percentage points worse for return on a huge sample of games and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): PHILADELPHIA, TAMPA BAY, LA DODGERS
DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: There has been a unique system that has developed since the start of last season when majority handle betting groups backed home favorites with fewer wins on the season. This is a terrible scenario for bettors, as they are just 360-329 (52.2%) for -118.41 units and an atrocious ROI of -17.2%. There’s a lot of common sense to this not doing well, since the lesser team is being favored just because it is at home or has a better starting pitcher working.
System Match (FADE): TEXAS
DK MLB Betting Splits system #10: Over the last season-and-a-half, the average posted total in MLB games has been just about 8.5. In games with posted totals higher than that (9 or higher), majority bettors have done quite well when they’ve had the discipline to opt for Under the total. This group has gone 356-320 (52.6%) since the start of the 2023 season for +26.1 units and an ROI of +3.9%. This is again another rare positive spot for a high volume of games, and of course, is built on the foundation of going against the grain.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): KC-MIN
Team Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles
The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.
NO QUALIFYING MOMENTUM ANGLES TODAY (next couple tomorrow, June 8)
