Today the weekend wraps up with a loaded 15 game MLB slate to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN MLB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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1:35 p.m. ET: Chicago White Sox at Philadelphia Phillies (-170, 9)
This is the rubber match of a three-game Interleague series.
The Phillies (34-30) won the opener 8-6, taking care of business as -190 home favorites. Then the White Sox (34-30) bounced back with a 6-3 win yesterday, coming through as a +120 road dog.
In this afternoon’s series finale, the White Sox hand the ball to lefty Tyler Gilbert (0-0, 20.25 ERA) and the Phillies counter with righty Aaron Nola (3-4, 5.55 ERA).
This line opened with Philadelphia listed as a -155 home favorite and Chicago a +135 road dog.
Sharps have laid the wood with the Phillies to earn a victory at home and take the series, steaming Philadelphia up from -155 to -170.
At DraftKings, the Phillies are receiving 83% of moneyline bets and 93% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, Philadelphia is taking in 60% of moneyline bets and a hefty 96% of moneyline dollars. Both books are showing a sharp “low bets, higher dollars” bet split in favor of the home chalk.
Sunday home favorites with a winning record, like the Phillies here, are 30-17 (64%) with a 5% ROI this season. If they also made the playoffs the previous season they improve to 16-8 (67%) with a 10% ROI this season.
Gilbert is a 32-year-old journeyman southpaw with a career record of 6-9 with a 4.39 ERA.
Meanwhile, Nola has posted a 3.27 ERA in has last two starts, allowing 4 earned runs in 11 innings pitched. Philadelphia is 5-1 in his last six starts overall.
The Phillies are 18-17 at home. The White Sox are 14-19 on the road.
2:15 p.m. ET: Cincinnati Reds at St. Louis Cardinals (-140, 9.5)
This Cardinals (34-28) have taken the first two games of this three-game series, winning the opener 10-3 as -145 home favorites and then winning again yesterday 6-5 as -125 home favorites.
In this afternoon’s series finale, the Reds (31-32) start righty Rhett Lowder (3-3, 5.40 ERA) and the Cardinals go with fellow righty Michael McGreevy (3-5, 2.98 ERA).
This line opened with St. Louis listed as a -130 home favorite and Cincinnati a +110 road dog.
Sharps have jumped on the Cardinals to complete the sweep laying modest chalk at home, driving St. Louis up from -130 to -140.
At DraftKings, the Cardinals are taking in 77% of moneyline bets and 87% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, St. Louis is receiving 80% of moneyline bets and a massive 97% of moneyline dollars. Both books are displaying a “low bets, higher dollars” wiseguy bet split in favor of the home chalk.
Above .500 home favorites off a win priced -155 or less, like St. Louis here, are 67-42 (61%) with a 9% ROI this season. Sunday home favorites with a winning record are 30-17 (64%) with a 5% ROI this season.
McGreevy has given up 2 earned runs or less in 8 of his 12 starts this season. He has posted a 2.12 ERA at home and a 1.88 ERA during the day.
On the other hand, Lowder is making his first start off the Injured List after missing roughly a month with a shoulder injury. He has posted a 6.65 ERA on the road and an 8.69 ERA during the day.
The Cardinals are 18-16 at home. The Reds are 15-16 on the road.
8:30 p.m. ET: San Francisco Giants at Chicago Cubs (-125, 8)
This is the rubber match of a three-game games.
The Giants (26-39) dominated the opener 18-3, easily cashing as +135 road dogs. Then the Cubs (34-31) clawed back with a 3-2 win in extra innings yesterday, coming through as -150 home favorites.
In tonight’s Sunday Night Baseball series finale, the Giants tap righty Trevor McDonald (2-3, 4.50 ERA) and the Cubs turn to fellow righty Jameson Taillon (2-5, 5.13 ERA).
This line opened with Chicago listed as a -115 home favorite and San Francisco a -105 road dog.
Sharps have gotten down on the home team laying short chalk, driving the Cubs up from -115 to -125.
At Circa, Chicago is taking in 67% of moneyline bets and 72% of moneyline dollars, a “low bets, higher dollars” sharp split in their favor from the wiseguys in the desert.
Above .500 home favorites priced -140 or less facing a sub .500 opponent, like the Cubs here, are 34-23 (60%) with an 8% ROI this season. Sunday home favorites off a win facing an opponent who missed the playoffs the previous season are 34-15 (69%) with a 17% ROI this season.
Sunday Night Baseball home favorites are 5-3 (62%) with an 8% ROI this season and 187-104 (64%) with a 9% ROI since 2010.
Chicago has additional correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (8), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the “better” team who is expected to win.
McDonald has posted a 4.88 ERA at night compared to 2.84 during the day.
Meanwhile, Taillon has posted a 4.05 ERA at home compared to 6.21 on the road.
The Cubs are 20-14 at home. The Giants are 14-23 on the road.
