The MLB All Star Break continues today, however unlike the past two days there is no Home Run Derby or All Star Game to bet on. With MLB action returning on Friday, let’s make the most of this brief hiatus by examining the MLB Division Winner betting market in search of sharp second half value plays.
All odds and bet splits courtesy of BetMGM.
AL EAST
Rays -150
Yankees +130
Blue Jays +3000
Red Sox +3500
Orioles +8000
This is essentially a two-team race between the Rays (-150) and Yankees (+130). The Rays (56-38) currently sit in first place, leading the 2nd place Yankees (54-42) by three games. While New York is intriguing at a modest plus money payout, Tampa Bay holds an edge in terms of an easier strength of schedule the rest of the way. The Rays’ remaining opponents hold a combined .488 win percentage (3rd easiest in MLB) while the Yankees sit at .504 (10th hardest). Tampa also has two games in hand (68 remaining vs 66).
Bettors holding a Rays preseason ticket are sitting pretty, as Tampa Bay opened +3000 to win the division and is now -150. On the other hand, New York opened a +200 favorite and is now sitting +130. The Rays enjoy a sharper bet split, taking in 18% of tickets but 37% of dollars, while the Yankees are receiving 20.8% of tickets compared to 29.5% of dollars.
AL CENTRAL
Guardians +120
White Sox +175
Tigers +450
Twins +900
Royals +25000
The Guardians (51-46) and White Sox (50-45) are tied for first in the division, but, as of now, the betting market is leaning Cleveland to win it. The Guardians have slightly better odds (+120 vs +175) and also enjoy an easier remaining schedule, with their opponents holding a .467 win percentage (30th and easiest in MLB) compared to the White Sox facing a .493 schedule (21st). Cleveland also enjoys a sharper bet split, taking in 17.4% tickets and 28.8% of dollars, while Chicago is receiving 19.8% of tickets but only 11.9% of dollars.
Interestingly, the Twins (48-49) only sit 3 games back of first place but have worse odds (+900) of winning the division than the Tigers (+450), who sit 6.5 games back. Detroit opened as a +150 favorite to win the division and sat as high as +900 earlier this month before getting hot and falling back to +450. The Twins are only taking in 5.3% of tickets and 8.6% of dollars while the Tigers are raking in 38.5% of tickets and 30% of dollars.
AL WEST
Mariners -130
Rangers +175
Astros +525
Athletics +6600
Angels +40000
Not much has changed from open to current out West, as Seattle opened as a +120 favorite to win the division and remains the favorite today at -130. Ironically, the Rangers (49-47) sit in first place, a full 1.5-games ahead of second place Seattle (48-49), while the Astros (47-51) remain 3 games back.
However, sharps are sticking with the Mariners, as Seattle is receiving 33.8% of bets and a massive 88.1% of dollars, by far the biggest “low bets, higher dollars” discrepancy of any team in any division.
Both the Rangers (12.9% of bets and 2% of dollars) and Astros (19.6% of bets and 5.5% of dollars) have red flag “low dollars, high bets” public bet splits. All three teams enjoy an easy strength of schedule the rest of the way (bottom 9 at .491 or worse).
NL East
Braves -175
Phillies +140
Marlins +3000
Nationals +10000
Mets +30000
The Braves and Mets opened as co-favorites to win the division at +200. Boy, have things changed since then. The Braves (55-40) lead the division while the Mets (40-57) sit in last place. Atlanta enjoys the sharpest bet split to win the division, taking in 20.9% of bets but a hefty 45% of dollars. The Phillies (54-43) sit two games back of Atlanta and are receiving 35.3% of tickets and 33.8% of dollars.
The Marlins are an intriguing longshot play, as Miami is only 4 games back of Atlanta but offers a +3000 payout. However, the Marlins boast a red flag bet split, receiving 14% of tickets but only 3.8% of dollars. Atlanta has two games in hand over both Philadelphia and Miami (67 games remaining vs 65). All three teams face a difficult schedule down the stretch (top 8 hardest, .507 combined win percentage or higher).
NL CENTRAL
Brewers -700
Cubs +550
Pirates +4000
Cardinals +5000
Reds +33000
The Brewers opened as a slight favorite to win the division, sitting at +165 while the Cubs were +175. Now, Milwaukee (59-37) sits as a -700 favorite as they lead the division by five games over Chicago (54-42). The Brewers offer a sharp bet split, taking in 18.4% of tickets but a hefty 43.7% of dollars. On the other hand, Chicago (+550) is receiving 25.7% of tickets and 27% of dollars.
Milwaukee enjoys an easier strength of schedule down the stretch (17th with a .499 combined win percentage) compared to Chicago (3rd hardest at .521). However, based on the expensive price, it’s hard to argue that Milwaukee offers much value as bettors must lay $700 just to win $100.
NL WEST
Dodgers -10000
Padres +4500
Diamondbacks +5000
Giants +25000
Rockies +30000
The betting market was bullish of the Dodgers at the outset, as Los Angeles opened -350 to win the division. Now, the Dodgers (61-36) own the best record in baseball and lead their division by 11.5 games over 2nd place Arizona. As a result, Los Angeles is a massive -10000 favorite to win the division, which is so expensive the juice isn’t worth the squeeze. Because of their massive price, Los Angeles is only taking in 11.4% of tickets and 10.4% of dollars.
While the division is too expensive to wager on, bettors who want to back the Dodgers would be wise to entertain other positions. Los Angeles opened at +350 to win the World Series and now sits at +185. The Dodgers are receiving 11.6% of tickets and 21.9% of dollars to win it all, the only team to garner a double-digit percentage of bets or dollars. Los Angeles opened +180 and now sits -105 to win the NL Pennant, taking in 12.5% of tickets and 23% of dollars.
