WNBA Picks
A couple of bad beats yesterday kept us from a perfect sweep, but overall the model has been dialed in lately and is currently on a 10-3 run on bets and 22-13 in the last 35. Sunday has just two games for us, with the Chicago Sky visiting the Toronto Tempo and the Los Angeles Sparks hosting the Portland Fire. Here are the T Shoe Index projections for both games.
Toronto Tempo (-3) vs Chicago Sky, O/U 174
The Tempo have won two of their last three games and currently sit at 5-5 on the season, while Chicago finally ended their five-game skid against Connecticut Friday night. Toronto has been 3 points better at home than on the road, mostly on the defensive end. In home games, they’re allowing just 78 points per game, but allowing almost 98 points per game on the road. Overall, their home games have totaled about 16.5 points per game fewer than road games. Chicago has been slightly worse on offense on the road, scoring about a half point below their home average, but have been significantly better defensively on the road, giving up 9.5 points fewer on the road. Combined, these teams’ home/road splits are a total of 21 points below their overall averages. TSI projects Chicago as a half-point favorite on the road with a total of 166.5. I really like this Under, as the numbers align and the home/road splits heavily favor it, as well as the last 3 games’ data, which would make this total 168.5.
Bet: Under 174 (Play to 172)
Los Angeles Sparks (-7.5) vs Portland Fire, O/U 177
LA is coming off a tough loss to Dallas Friday night, and are currently on a three-game losing streak – although, in fairness, Kelsey Plum didn’t play in two of those. Prior to Plum’s injury, it looked like they had started to find a rhythm with Cameron Brink finally getting consistent minutes and playing well off the bench. Portland has dropped two straight and three of its last four games. I’ve been consistently fading LA at home, as they’ve been seven points worse at home than on the road this season, scoring seven points per game fewer than on the road while allowing 7.5 points more to opponents. Portland has been essentially the same on the road as they are at home, which isn’t great but at least it’s consistent. TSI projects LA as just 2.5-point favorites here, with a total of 173. The last three games’ data also agrees, actually favoring Portland -3.5 with a total of 168. I’m going to back the Fire on the road here with a strong lean to the Under.
Bet: Fire +7.5 (Play to +5.5)
Lean: Under 177
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