UFC 329 Predictions:
This week’s UFC 329 is highlighted by the return of Conor McGregor, who takes on Max Holloway in a rematch 13 years in the making. In that fight, they fought at 145 pounds. On Saturday, their fight is ‘scheduled’ for 170 pounds in the welterweight division.
T-Mobile in Las Vegas will host the event, featuring 14 bouts to be waged in the large 30-foot octagon before a packed house.
Five fights feature athletes traveling into the States to compete against fighters from the USA, so home turf may offer advantage in those fights. There are also five fights in the higher weight classes (170 lbs. and above), where finishes are more frequent than in the lower divisions.
Lastly, in a fight that will last less than 120 seconds, Gable Stevenson makes his UFC debut. Stevenson is a world-class Olympic gold medalist in freestyle wrestling who will decimate the mannequin they have placed before him in that matchup.
Into this column, we stand 10-13-1 -2.75u for the year. Time to make some hay!
Max Holloway -220 vs. Conor McGregor +190
Welterweight (170 pounds) main event
Thirteen years ago, McGregor won in a decision against a young, skinny, green Max Holloway, who was in his fourth UFC fight. Flash forward to today, and the paths each man has taken to get here are drastically different.
For McGregor, we understand the unique brilliance, the deft footwork, the power, and the simple mental majesty by which he overtook the featherweight division in the UFC, then eventually the UFC as a whole.
However, despite the formidable body of work he left us with prior to this fight, it must be mentioned that Conor last fought five years ago, which was his second devastating loss in a row to Dustin Poirier, this time in round one because of a broken bone in his leg.
McGregor’s last five years have been colorful to say the least. While out of the cage, he’s rampaged through the headlines. His chronology is heavily marked by numerous episodes with the law and the courtroom. He’s had to defend himself against various accusations.
Further, and as importantly, in fighting history itself, one thing has proven to be an absolute fact. Once a man with little to no means is able to propel himself (or herself) through their own immense talent, diligence, and dedication to the pinnacle of the fighting profession, the attainment of that goal, once so foreign to them, comes back to corrode them comprehensively because of what the fruits of their labor provide them.
Check fighting history. Save for Umar Nurmagomedov and Rocky Marciano, no other all-time great fighter has been able to walk away from the ring or cage without compromising their own legacy. It’s history. Fighters need edge and desperation to gain their reputation.
What they must avoid and what truly corrodes their mind, body, and eventually their skill is what fighting success provides them—private jet transportation, silk sheets, Veuve Clicquot, and a yes to any question they ask. Once fighters achieve their goal of attaining a title and beyond like McGregor had, then the real adversity begins.
McGregor is today’s textbook example of this. He’s now 37 years old, has not fought in five years, and comes in off two losses!
McGregor’s mind is sharp no doubt, but I assure you his body will not be able to execute what his mind will try to direct it to.
I expect McGregor to miss weight in this fight and do so on purpose, for he is not only keenly unprofessional, but he also understands that the pressure to make this fight will be such that there is no way Max (who has never competed at any weight higher than 155 pounds), his camp, or anyone involved with this production will allow the fight to be canceled.
Yes, McGregor is mentally crafty, and that’s how he can play his mental warfare on Max by making him accept the fight at a weight class other than 170 pounds. I believe this is exactly what McGregor will do, as it is his way of gaining an edge.
His mind remembers, but in the end, all his tricks and magic will not be able to save the 37-year-old former addict from his trivial pursuit.
We must also take into consideration that Max Holloway has been active; he’s coming off bouts against Gaethje, Topuria, Poirier, and Oliveira, the absolute elite of the lightweight division.
Max has been competing; he will be able to carry the 170 pounds and carry it effectively into the later rounds of this fight because of his dedication and drive, and because he has stayed active in the game during these last five years while Conor was busy making headlines.
Once the bell for round one rings, McGregor will come out firing fresh, furious and with frenetic pace but he’ll have six and a half minutes to perform, for after that McGregor’s mind will realize what his abused body will be telling him: that he is able to recall how to fight in world class fashion however that he is simply unable to physically execute that level of fighting any longer.
The mind remembers, but the body just can’t execute anymore.
Come Saturday night, I believe Max Holloway will present the brash, cocky Irishman a ‘Proper’ send-off.
UFC 329 Best Bet: Max Holloway via and KO/Sub/DQ -125 DraftKings
Total in this fight 2.5 Rds Under -130
Strong lean Under
Cory Sandhagen -145 vs. Mario Bautista +125
Bantamweight (135 pounds)
Rematch!
This second go-round for these two will be a much more competitive fight. In the first bout, Bautista took the fight against a ranked Sandhagen on short notice and as a debuting UFC athlete.
Fourth-ranked bantamweight Sandhagen trains in Colorado’s elevation, he’s got a Taekwondo background supplemented with a brown belt in BJJ. But Sandhagen is also able to utilize his tall, long frame effectively on the feet. He is athletic and sports effective strike evasion to go with his diversity of strikes and kicks, which he accrues via volume as opposed to power.
Sandhagen’s grappling is elite, and he’s been in the octagon with the absolute elite of the division. Sandhagen is a legitimate top five athlete at bantamweight.
For the fifth-ranked Bautista, this rematch has been the fight he has been yearning for over the course of the last several years. A black belt in BJJ with a foundation in wrestling and boxing, Bautista is your true diligent grinding Mexican fighter.
He has an iron will, a great diversity of offensive attack, and he sports solid wrestling acumen. Bautista is able to overwhelm opponents with his positive 1.32 significant strikes per minute, then fold in his world-class wrestling/grappling prowess (a trait of all MMALab athletes) into the mix.
Sandhagen will be the taller, longer man in the cage, but Bautista will be the more compact, powerful player. Bautista’s focus on stepping over Sandhagen has been simmering for the last seven years since they first competed, and it will be the constant forward pressure that Bautista will apply to Sandhagen throughout this fight that will make the difference here.
This is a stellar opportunity for Bautista to snag Sandhagen’s shine and catapult himself up the rankings and make his case for a title opportunity.
The completeness of Bautista’s mixed martial arts weaponry and, more specifically, his pressure wrestling/grappling will ultimately separate him from Sandhagen in this oh-so-competitive rematch.
UFC 329 Best Bet: Mario Bautista +125
Total in this fight: 2.5 Rds Over -275
This is a stellar fight card that has amazing matchups. For all of my final releases, please check out the ‘Bout Business Podcast available anywhere you get your pods and at GambLou.com. Thank you for reading, and enjoy the bouts!
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