UFC Las Vegas 100 Predictions – Magny vs. Prates:
VSiN Primetime producer Britton Hess offers his UFC Las Vegas 100 best bets and puts pen to paper (well, fingers to keyboard) to hammer out his thoughts and UFC predictions for every fight on the docket.
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Neil “Haitian Sensation” Magny (+550) vs Carlos “The Nightmare” Prates (-800)
Over 2.5 Rounds (+160) | Under 2.5 Rounds (-210)
Neil Magny is a UFC legend. He has never fought for a belt, but after 33 trips to the octagon, he has shared space with some of the best fighters ever to do it and has gotten the upper hand much more often than expected. Overall, he is 22-11 in the organization and has alternated wins and losses in his last eight fights since 2022. He is coming off a KO loss to the young undefeated fighter Michael Morales in August after getting an upset versus Mike Malott back in January. Fighting Neil Magny is a test not only of your skills but also your power, conditioning, and defensive prowess. At age 37, Magny is not the athlete he was 10 years ago and likely isn’t as powerful. But as his physical skills have diminished, his fight IQ has risen, and his gas tank has never been in question.
According to the metrics, his defense is generally more impressive than his offense, especially in recent years. He tries to neutralize his opponents’ striking by closing the distance and engaging in the clinch against the cage. He uses this grind-it-out style to wear out inexperienced fighters and veterans who overlook him. He has nine of his 22 UFC wins as an underdog, and he has three victories as an underdog of +250 or greater, including in January when he outlasted Mike Malott and won via third-round TKO. That said, he isn’t necessarily a giant killer either. He has been an underdog of +350 or greater in his last four losses.
Carlos Prates has gone viral on social media for smoking cigarettes on the street and smoking opponents in the UFC octagon. The surging 31-year-old is 3-0 in the UFC with three knockout victories. He also won via KO in Contender Series, and 15 of his 20 professional wins have come due to strikes. Prates hits differently. He is long and lean, but his strikings are picture-perfect clean. He almost never catches opponents with glancing shots. He lands clean and on target nearly every single time he throws. In the Octagon, he lands nearly five significant strikes per minutes at about a 60% rate.
When you dive deeper into Prates’ striking metrics, you also see that has a distinct advantage when it comes to the most important strikes in the sport, “head significant strikes.” He lands 46% of the headshots he throws, where Magny is significantly worse at 40%. And then there is perhaps the most damning stat of them all, Magny has been knocked down nine times, Prates has four knockdowns in three UFC fights. He also has never been taken down, so if Magny’s plan is to get this on the ground, it will take him literally dragging Prats into uncharted territory. These odds are ridiculous, and finding value necessitates diving deep into the odds board.
FIGHT WINNER: Carlos Prates
UFC LAS VEGAS 100 BEST BET: Neil Magny under 0.5 takedowns landed (+175), Risk 1 unit to win 1.75
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Gerald “GM3” Meerschaert (+260) vs Reiner “The Dutch Knight” de Ridder (-325)
Over 2.5 Rounds (+100) | Under 2.5 Rounds (-130)
Gerald Meerschaert is a grappling specialist which leads to some wild finishes and maddening flat spots. As a pro fighter, he is 37-17, and 29 of his wins have come via submission, with just six KOs and two decision victories. In the UFC, he is 12-9 with 11 wins via submission and one via KO. Meerschaert is a real specialist. When he doesn’t have to worry about an opponent with elite striking, he eats shots on the way in and forces the fight to the ground. From there, he usually finds a neck and ends it. If his opponent is a crisp striker, he usually struggles to close the distance and gets knocked out on the way in. Meerschaert is currently on a two-fight winning streak, including as a +250 underdog versus Edmen Shahbzyan, where he was able to survive an early flurry of strikes and then get the fight to the ground in the second round. He was able to finish with an arm triangle choke. Despite being a one-trick pony, he has lasted as a professional fighter since 2007, and that experience is what he relies on to fight his way out of situations in which more green fighters would quit.
Reiner de Ridder is an extremely accomplished UFC debutant. He is the 205-pound AND 225-pound champion of ONE Fighting Championships and won a few other regional belts on the way up. He is 17-2, with both losses coming in title fights (against the same opponent). He rebounded from those losses with a win in UAE Warriors via first-round knockout and is now making his UFC debut. Like Meerschaert, he is mostly a grappler and takes advantage of fighters who are not as fluent in the submission arts. I have some questions about the quality of competition de Ridder has defeated. ONE is definitely a legitimate organization, but it is still far behind the UFC regarding talent on the roster. Additionally, de Ridder is not much of a striker, and when he lost, it was because his opponent was able to definitively win the stand-up battle.
Lucky for de Ridder, Meerschaert is not an elite striker, but unfortunately for de Ridder this opponent is not going to be confused when the grappling begins. That said, Meerschaert has been submitted before when he has gotten overzealous trying to find his own finishes.
FIGHT WINNER: Gerald Meerschaert
UFC LAS VEGAS 100 BEST BET: Gerald Meerschaert (+260), Risk 1 Unit to Win 2.6
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Cortavious “Are You Not Entertained?” Romious (-225) vs Gaston “The Dreamkiller” Bolanos (+185)
Over 1.5 Rounds (-166) | Under 1.5 Rounds (+130)
This fight being on the main card of the UFC Vegas 100 event is perhaps a bit head-scratching.
Romious is making his debut after going 1-1 in Contender Series (he was KO’d by Ramon Taveras in 30 seconds in his first attempt). On the other side, Gaston Bolanos is just 1-1 in the UFC. However, he does have a decent pedigree, going 6-3 in Bellator before getting the UFC call. Romious is more of a grappler than a striker, and five of his nine professional wins have come via the sub. Bolanos is the complete opposite. Six of his seven victories have come via knockout.
Romious is just 5’4” but does make up for it with a 68” reach. On the other side, Bolanos is 5’7″ with a 69” reach. Romious likely will have an advantage on the ground. Though Bolanos has shown the ability to get back up after being taken down, and Romious did not attempt a takedown in either of his Contender Series fights. I think Bolanos’ experience will win the day, and I like him here in an upset versus an undersized and undertooled opponent in Romious.
FIGHT WINNER: Gaston Bolanos
UFC LAS VEGAS 100 BEST BET: Gaston Bolanos (+185), Risk 1 Unit to Win 1.85
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Luana Pinheiro (+300) vs Gillian “The Savage” Robertson (-380)
Over 2.5 Rounds (+120) | Under 2.5 Rounds (-154)
Luana Pinheiro was ascending quickly after winning in Contender Series, then putting together three victories in a row as a full-fledged member of the UFC roster. However, as we often see, when her strength increased, her results became much less impressive. She has been finished in her last two bouts. Amanda Ribas knocked her out, and then she was submitted by Angela Hill, which is a bit head-scratching because Hill only has three wins via finish in 26 UFC fights. Her greatest strength is avoiding 63% of her opponents’ significant strikes. However, they still throw volume because they are not worried about what she is firing back. She does attempt a decent amount of takedowns, but her success rate is bad at just 33% for her UFC career.
Gillian Robertson will be making her 18th trip to the cage for this matchup. She is 11-6 for her career but 4-1 in her last five fights, with three victories coming inside the distance. She is a lethal grappler with seven submission victories in the cage and you can bank on her wanting to at least get into a position to attempt a submission each time she is fighting. Her striking numbers are not great, but her defense is solid. She gets hit less than three times per minute and avoids 56% of the significant strikes opponents throw. Robertson will have a pronounced ground advantage in this fight.
FIGHT WINNER: Gillian Robertson
UFC LAS VEGAS 100 BEST BET: Parlay Piece, see below
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Mansur Abdul-Malik (-485) vs Dusko “Thunder” Todorovic (+370)
Over 1.5 Rounds (+124) | Under 1.5 Rounds (-160)
With just six professional fights, it is a bit absurd that Mansur Abdul-Malik is making his UFC debut on the main card. That said, he is 6-0 with a 100% finish rate. He cut his teeth on the regional scene, then crushed his opponent in LFA in short order and followed that up with a strong performance on Contender Series. He has a strong wrestling base that allows him to wear out opponents and finish them with ground and pound once they are on their back. That said, this type of manhandling generally gets much harder as the level of competition increases.
Dusko Todorovic was once an undefeated prospect with all the potential in the world. He was 7-0 when he went on Contender Series and won a decision. He followed that up with a ground-and-pound finish that earned him a performance of the night bonus. He then fought two extremely hard hitters in Punahele Soriano and Gregory Rodrigues and tasted defeat. Overall, he is 3-4 in the UFC and 12-4 as a professional, with all three of his UFC victories coming via ground and pound and three of his losses coming via KO/TKO (he suffered a knee injury in 2023 in the first round versus Christian Leroy Duncan.
Neither fighter has particularly good striking defense, but I do think Abdul-Malik’s grappling will be superior to that of his veteran opponent. I also think that Todorovic has taken a ton of damage in the last few years both to the head and otherwise. I also think he will be far and away the best opponent the undefeated fighter has seen.
FIGHT WINNER: Mansur Abdul-Malik
UFC LAS VEGAS 100 BEST BET: Pass
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Karolina Kowalkiewicz (+390) vs Denise “Dee” Gomes (-520)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-260) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+195)
Karolina Kowakiewicz is a UFC veteran with 17 trips to the octagon under her belt. Eight years ago, she fought for a belt, but since then, she has not sniffed another title shot. She also experienced a five-fight losing streak from 2018 to 2021, but she has righted the ship with four wins in her last five fights. She is mostly a stand-up fighter and throws a lot of volume on her feet. She is often in wild exchanges, and both she and her opponents land there. She is not much of a power threat, especially at age 39. Additionally, she has been a bad underdog lately, and hasn’t won as a true dog since 2016.
Denise Gomes is a women’s flyweight with legitimate power. She is 3-2 in the UFC with two KO victories, both coming as a betting underdog. Due to her striking prowess, she has faced a ton of takedown attempts in her relatively short UFC career. On average, she has seen 11.99 takedown attempts per five minutes at distance in the cage. Additionally, she scored two knockdowns, and none were received, accompanied by a +1.64 distance striking differential per minute. Kowalkiewicz is durable, but she will be tested in this fight.
FIGHT WINNER: Denise Gomes
UFC LAS VEGAS 100 BEST BET: Parlay piece, see below
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Elizeu “Capoeira” Zaleski (-700) vs Zach Scroggin (+500)
Over 2.5 Rounds (+135) | Under 2.5 Rounds (-175)
Elizeu Zaleski is another UFC veteran who is facing a newcomer on the 100th UFC Vegas fight night card. However some of the rookies we have already discussed have some legitimate experience. I cannot say that about Zach Scroggin who has exclusively fought nobodies in Fighting Alliance Championships, a regional organization that is several tiers below even LFA. Scroggin is 7-0, though, and it is hard to fault someone for beating the opponents on the schedule, no matter how uninspiring they are. That said, Zaleski is 10-4-1 in the UFC and, at age 37, does not appear to be slowing down. At the end of the day, anything is possible when knees and elbows are flying in a confined space, but on pedigree alone, Zaleski is not losing this fight. He has a great chance to get his first finish since 2019. Additionally, Scroggin missed weight, which probably does not indicate that he is fully ready to take on this challenge.
FIGHT WINNER: Elizeu Zaleski
UFC LAS VEGAS 100 BEST BET: Parlay: Robertson/Gomes/Zaleski (-139), Risk 1 Unit to Win 1.39
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Charles “Chuck Buffalo” Radtke (-148) vs Matthew “Semi the Jedi” Semelsberger (+124)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-140) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+110)
Charles Radtke is 2-1 in the UFC, but his most recent trip to the cage is one he wants to forget, a first-round loss via body shot against Carlos Prates in June. Before that, he beat two lower-level UFC fighters in Mike Mathetha and Gilbert Urbina. I believe Matthew Semelsberger is much closer to Mathetha and Urbina than Prates. I also think Radtke will be able to win striking exchanges and fend off takedowns. Overall, this fight seems quite straightforward, and I expect Radtke to win via decision, which is never reassuring given the state of UFC judging…
FIGHT WINNER: Charles Radtke
UFC LAS VEGAS 100 BEST BET: Charles Radtke (-148) vs Semelsberger, Risk 1.48 Units to Win 1
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Cody “The Spartan” Stamann (+210) vs Da’Mon “Da Monster” Blackshear (-258)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-395) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+280)
Cody Stamann has more UFC experience than Da’mon Blackshear and actually has fairly similar striking and grappling metrics despite fighting in the organization much longer. That said, Blackshear’s strength of schedule since he entered the cage is probably higher than Stamann’s. He fought to a draw against Youssef Zalal in his debut, followed that up with a decision loss to Farid Basharat, then secured two finishes in his subsequent fights. When he was tasked with taking on the tough Mario Bautista, he was on the wrong end of a decision. After that, he had a ridiculous fight versus Montel Jackson, where he inexplicably got KO’d in 18 seconds. That said, in the same period, Stamann almost exclusively fought the bottom of the organization’s opposition and went 2-3.
Stamann is not much of a finishing threat and will want to wrestle. Blackshear is dangerous everywhere and will have a massive reach advantage. I believe that Stamann’s extremities will be at risk if they grapple, and if he shoots a double leg, a guillotine for Blackshear will be there for the taking.
FIGHT WINNER: Da’Mon Blackshear
UFC LAS VEGAS 100 BEST BET: Da’Mon Blackshear to win via submission (+400), Risk 1 Unit to Win 4
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Tresean “Mr Vicious” Gore (-180) vs Antonio “Malvado” Trocoli (+150)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-105) | Under 2.5 Rounds (-125)
Tresean Gore feels like he has been around a while, but he actually did not officially enter the cage until 2022. He is an Ultimate Fighter veteran, 4-2 as a pro, and 1-2 in the UFC. That said, his losses are perhaps redeemable: Bryan Battle, who is looking like a potential title contender, and Cody Brundage, who is always dangerous (if not smart). He recovered with a guillotine submission as an underdog versus Josh Fremd. On the other side, Antonio Trocoli is 0-1 in the UFC after taking a short-notice fight with Shara Magomedov. Before that, he won via submission in Contender Series, but the result was voided due to a failed drug test. Overall, I do not have high expectations for this fight, but I do expect Trocoli’s five-inch height advantage to cause some intrigue early before Gore closes the distance and delivers devastating blows.
FIGHT WINNER: Tresean Gore
UFC LAS VEGAS 100 BEST BET: PASS
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Melissa “No Mess” Mullins (-270) vs Klaudia Sygula (+220)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-250) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+190)
Melissa Mullins has missed weight in consecutive fights. In April she came in two pounds heavy versus Nora Cornolle and was knocked out in the second round as a -360 favorite. Not exactly a good omen. This opponent has much less legitimate experience than Cornolle did. Klaudia Sygula is making her UFC debut after cutting her teeth in some of the most rinky-dink promotions in Eastern Europe. Overall, the 25-year-old is 6-1 and on a six-fight winning streak after losing her debut. That said, I think her best days are still a few fights away. She will be overpowered by Mullins who needs to reset the narrative around her UFC career.
FIGHT WINNER: Melissa Mullins
UFC LAS VEGAS 100 BEST BET: Pass
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UFC Las Vegas 100 Best Bets Recap:
– Neil Magny under 0.5 takedowns landed (+175), Risk 1 unit to win 1.75
– Gerald Meerschaert (+260) vs de Ridder, Risk 1 Unit to Win 2.6
– Gaston Bolanos (+185) vs Romious, Risk 1 Unit to Win 1.85
– Parlay: Robertson/Gomes/Zaleski (-139), Risk 1 Unit to Win 1.39
– Charles Radtke (-148) vs Semelsberger, Risk 1.48 Units to Win 1
– Da’Mon Blackshear to win via submission (+400), Risk 1 Unit to Win 4
