UFC London Predictions:
Preliminary action for UFC London begins Saturday at 10 a.m. PT, with the main slate kicking off at 1 p.m. PT. This event is scheduled for 13 fights, five of which are in divisions weighing 170 pounds and above. I track these ‘big boy bouts’ to try to project how much violence/finishing potential may be on any particular card, but that does not always hold as just last week, there were only three larger weight bouts, but nine of the 13 fights ended in finish!
Three US fighters populate this London card, so we’ll witness a diversity of international talent, fight weaponry and athlete physiques entering this fight card from London.
This March fight card has seen many of its 13 matchups change favorites.
Last week’s Fight Night saw underdogs realize a 6-7 result. Favorites in the UFC this year are 56.4%, down considerably from last year’s 70.5%. Two digital releases last week split, resulting in a -.30 deficit, digital results 2025: 6-5 +.80u
Leon Edwards +170 vs. Sean Brady -200
Welterweight (170 pounds) main event
Philadelphian Sean Brady is the division’s fifth-ranked fighter. He’s a black belt in BJJ with a Muay Thai striking base to compliment his grappling. Brady tore through the lower ranks of the division until he met up with current champion Belal Muhammad, who pulverized Brady in a one-sided second-round striking clinic/exhibition. Since that bout, Brady has earned victory in two straight fights. However, those opponents were truthfully not legitimate top-10 talents.
Brady is forceful with his forward pressure and strives at all costs to smother opponents, get up close then wrestle/grapple. His striking is in development and not overly refined, precise, or powerful, for he uses striking only to position himself for the clasp. Brady’s strike defense is of real concern, and the fact that his last couple of opponents really could not expose him in that capacity seems to be getting overlooked.
Former champion Leon Edwards is now ranked as the number-one contender. The Londoners’ advantages in this fight are many. He’s four inches taller, and the southpaw will sport a two-inch reach advantage over Brady, which is sure to present advantage when this fight is standing.
Edwards is a much better wrestler than most understand, and it is in his well-rounded fight arsenal, his physical attributes, and his ability to evade strikes that make him a complete adversary before mentioning his experience in five-round main event spotlights. Edwards is a deft boxer/striker with fluid movement whose striking has an accumulating effect because of the diversity of strikes/kicks he hurls. He’s also a solid wrestler with a black belt in BJJ who has faced the elite of the division.
Despite his accolades, the MMA community seems to believe that Edwards’ performance in the first Usman fight (outside its last minute) and then his display against Muhammad is his MO. I may beg to differ. In Edwards’ last fight about a year ago, Belal Muhammad decided he was going to use his world-class forward-pressing wrestling acumen/pressure to smother Edwards and wrest the title from him, which is exactly what he did in a one-sided decision.
The question in this fight is whether Brady can duplicate that effort for a full five rounds. Surely, his camp’s blueprint for success was seen in Muhammad’s victory.
Once this fight starts, it is my contention that Edwards’ fluidity of movement, his takedown defense, his precision striking/kicking, and finally, his five-round championship experience against the elite of the division he has faced will present him advantage without saying anything about that home crowd!
UFC London Best Bet: Leon Edwards +170 (odds at Westgate)
Patience, wait to get the absolute best number on the Englishman.
Total in this fight: 4.5 Rds Over -195
Carlos Ulberg -275 vs. Jan Blachowicz +240
Light heavyweight (205 pounds) Co-main event
Former champion Blachowicz enters this fight off a 2023 split decision loss to Alex Pereira and then shoulder reconstruction immediately following. Usually, that much time away is concerning, but for a cagey veteran like Blachowicz, the time away helped him prepare appropriately to arrive fresh and ready to fire in this most important battle.
Third-ranked light heavyweight Blachowicz has a well-rounded MMA arsenal. He’s durable, experienced, and surely coming into this fight with the desire to make another run at the title, but he faces a young lion with momentum and ferocity.
The concern for the 42-year-old Blachowicz is that in this fight, he is coming off injury and facing a man eight years his junior, who is taller, longer and coming in with an abundance of momentum.
In sixth-ranked Carlos Ulberg, we get an Aussie from City Kickboxing who is tall, long, young, and extremely well-coached/prepared. A kickboxer/striker by nature, Ulberg’s ability to grapple/wrestle will be tested in this fight if Blachowicz has any chance at winning.
Ulberg will be the stronger, faster, quicker man in the cage. He sports a positive 2.93 significant strikes per minute to Blachowicz’s +.50, so Ulberg will want to vie with the former champion at range, and Blachowicz must position himself inside the pocket.
Ulberg’s wrestling is not well established despite the fact that he sports an 83% takedown defense. It’s important to understand who he has fought, as his competitors had striking-based fighting styles. None had accomplished forward-pressing abilities. Ulberg simply has not competed against the depth of wrestler/grappler than Blachowicz is, even at 42 years of age.
Fight fans will determine soon enough if Ulberg’s takedown defense is developed enough for him to dictate that this fight will take place on the feet. A stand-up bout at distance is mandatory for his chances of winning.
Should Ulberg be able to keep this fight at his reach, he has the ability to dominate Blachowicz with his movement, length, and superior striking/kicking acumen.
Jan must be able to plant his forehead on Ulberg’s chest, maul him over time, and sap the strength/cardio from the blistering striker by forcing him to defend.
Jan must be able to force Ulberg to defend his wrestling early in this fight to gain his advantage late. Blachowicz’s next step is to force the rangy striker to the floor, where the advantage will be all Blachowicz.
Where this fight takes place will determine everything, and at this price, I must regard Blachowicz, despite his 42 years as live.
UFC London Best Bet: Jan Blachowicz +240 .5u
Total in this fight: 1.5Rds Over -185
Marcin Tybura -120 vs. Mick Parkin +100
Heavyweight (265 pounds)
Big Boys.
Polish fighter and eighth-ranked Marcin Tybura is the athlete who arrives in the octagon Saturday with an advantage in the level of competition faced and a depth of UFC experience.
A black belt in BJJ, the 39-year-old Tybura is more stringent in grappling and in close quarters, for his striking is telegraphed, slow, and singularly launched. In most fights, and in this one especially, Tybura’s success will be found in his grappling. Should he position Parkin on the canvas, he’ll possess great advantage over this less experienced foe.
Englishman Mick Parkin began as Tom Aspinall’s training partner but has slowly evolved into a recognized talent after going 4-0 in his first four UFC bouts.
The 29-year-old Englishman is a forward-pressing power puncher who is long on durability and cardio. Despite the fact that he’s defeated athletes no longer in the UFC or on the cusp of its cutting board, Parkin has looked like a fighter with promise and one that is quickly improving.
Tybura represents a certain step up for Parkin, but Parkin’s one-inch height and reach advantages and the fact he competes in front of his hometown people must be considered. Add the fact that fighters with 10 years of youth advantage win at a 67% rate and we have ourselves what I consider to be a live local fighter.
UFC London Best Bet: Mick Parkin +100
Total in this fight: 2.5 Rds Over -150
Friday morning, the ‘Bout Business Podcast will be available with all of my final releases for this UFC London card. Access it at GambLou.com. Thank you for reading, and enjoy the fights!
