Florida might not make the playoffs, and with just 29 games remaining, the pressure is on, and that means every game, even a Thursday-night tilt with the San Jose Sharks, matters. The Panthers need to rack up wins, and the only way to do that is to rely on their elite ability to generate shots, and exploit San Jose’s inability to suppress shots, which creates great conditions for player prop betting. Few teams can generate as many shots as the Panthers, and San Jose has been particularly bad as of late, giving up 35-plus shots in eight of their last 10 games. So, with that in mind, let’s focus on targeting some of the Panthers’ top shot performers:
Carter Verhaeghe Over 3.5 Shots (+110)
Matthew Tkachuk’s production is off the charts right now, but betting on Tkachuk to register at least four shots means laying -165 (62 percent implied probability) on something that has happened less than 50 percent of the time this season. Don’t get me wrong, there’s a better than 50 percent chance that Tkachuk registers at least that many on Thursday against the Sharks, but is it better than 62 percent? I don’t know. That’s why Tkachuk’s linemate, Carter Verhaeghe, is a more intriguing bet at +110. He’s been generating more shots (per 60) than Tkachuk since Jan. 1st and has registered at least four shots in eight of his 10 most recent games and 10 out of 16 games in 2023.
Sam Bennett Over 0.5 Points (-120)
Sam Bennett is already in a great spot, sandwiched between Verhaeghe and Tkachuk at five-on-five, and now he’s in an even better one due to the team’s decision to keep Aleksandar Barkov out of Thursday’s game. Barkov typically plays the middle on the Panthers’ top power play unit, but now Bennett will slide into the role for at least one game and that is not currently being accounted for in this market.
Bennett has 34 points in 52 games, compared to Sam Reinhart, who has 39 points in 53 games. Bennett has produced as many points (per 60) on the power play as Sam Reinhart, too, but the latter is -200 to register a point. In the 10 previous games that Barkov missed, Bennett put up 10 points and there’s a good chance he will factor in on the scoring in this game.
Record
Wins: 9
Losses: 9
Units Won: -1.2 units
ROI: -5.5 percent
All bets tracked via third-party app Betstamp.
