Colombia vs. Portugal
Miami Stadium, Miami Gardens, Florida.
Saturday, June 27th, 7:30 p.m. ET
Most judges expected that when these two nations met in the final game of Group K, they would be battling for top spot, but probably with Portugal leading the way and Colombia needing a win to leapfrog them. As it happens, those roles are reversed, and yet I feel the South Americans have been disrespected in the market, so for me, from a betting perspective, the value lies with Colombia Double Chance.
Los Cafeteros opened with a 3-1 victory over Uzbekistan before grinding out a disciplined 1-0 win over DR Congo to reach six points and secure qualification for the Round of 32. Portugal, meanwhile, was held to a disappointing tie with DR Congo before answering their critics with a 5-0 thrashing of Uzbekistan.
The Colombians have only been beaten twice in their last 15 internationals, dating back to March last year, and remember, avoid defeat here and they top the group while we cash the ticket in full. Therefore, the match is set up in a way that heavily favors Nestor Lorenzo’s side, being able to remain compact defensively, then look to strike in transition through the electric Luis Diaz and the creativity of James Rodriguez.
Portugal’s 5-0 dismissal of Uzbekistan may actually help this bet in that not only did it come against the weakest team in the group, but Ronaldo scored two goals. The margin of victory has given the market an inflated opinion of them, while calls for CR7 to be dropped have quieted, although I believe his untouchable presence is a negative for the team as a whole.
Ronaldo became the fourth-oldest player in the history of the competition in the opener versus DR Congo but resembled more of a mannequin than the all-conquering legend. That game also saw a perfect example of how Portugal can struggle when facing an organized defensive structure.
Colombia has won both group matches, needs only a point to secure first place, and is set up tactically to frustrate a Portugal side that must chase victory. In a fixture where motivation and game state matter as much as talent, taking a Colombia side who went 28 games unbeaten a couple of years ago, on the Double Chance offers the strongest betting value.
World Cup Best Bet: Colombia vs Portugal – Colombia Double Chance at -106
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