England vs. Croatia
Dallas Stadium, Arlington, Texas
Wednesday, June 17th, 6:00 p.m. ET
England (-140) | Draw (+280) | Croatia (+390)
Over 2.5 Goals (+130) | Under 2.5 Goals (-165)
It does not matter where the World Cup is hosted, how many countries the games are played across, or what time of year it falls. There is one story that will overshadow all others until one particular nation lifts this trophy — England (#4 FIFA Ranking), the creator of the world’s game. The last time the English won it was in 1966, a drought of epic proportions for a country so dominant in the sport at both the international and club level. They finally get their chance to begin the campaign, and their opening opponent is none other than Croatia (#11), a strong side capable of defeating anyone.
The Croatians have reached places on the international stage that English fans have only dreamed of. Croatia appeared in the World Cup Final at the 2018 tournament and then finished third in 2022. Led by elite footballers such as Ivan Perišić, Mario Mandžukić, and Andrej Kramarić, alongside elite midfielders like Luka Modrić, Croatia experienced a remarkable surge in results over their last few World Cups — a run they will look to repeat. Modrić and Perišić remain, but new faces will need to step up if Croatia is to succeed. Their striker, Petar Musa, has been scoring goals for FC Dallas in MLS and will now need to deliver on the biggest stage against one of the sport’s true giants.
England enjoyed a clean run of warm-up matches in June heading into the tournament. While not facing strong opposition, they defeated Costa Rica (#53) 3–0 and New Zealand (#85) 1–0. England traditionally plays a lower-scoring, disciplined style — drawing opponents into battles where goals are at a premium. Harry Kane, Bukayo Saka, Anthony Gordon, and Jude Bellingham form an attacking line that should be capable of scoring plenty.
Five of England’s last six matches have gone under 2.5 goals, while Croatia has seen over 2.5 goals in six of their last seven. Croatia has also failed to keep a clean sheet in their last six matches, and England have scored first in nine of their last ten. Both nations come in with plenty at stake — with Panama (#34) and Ghana (#73) rounding out the group, the winner of this match will nearly guarantee their place in the next round.
I expect to see some offense here. Croatia’s inability to keep the ball out of the net will catch up with them, while England’s firepower should put a few past. I’m not eager to back England on the three-way moneyline at –140, and I’m not fully convinced Croatia can secure points either — but I see both sides finding the net, with England winning 2–1. Heavy public money will pour onto the under; I love fading the crowd on a popular pick. The over 2.5 goals is also a solid play if you’d rather not rely on both teams scoring.
World Cup Best Bet: Both Teams to Score & Over 2.5 Goals (+165)
