Here are my midweek EPL predictions:
Newcastle vs. Wolves
Wednesday, 2:30 p.m. ET
After a break for FA Cup third round weekend, the EPL is back with a full midweek slate. For my best bet, I am going to be siding with the form team in England right now. I am so confident, I am taking Newcastle on a -1.5 Asian Handicap. Meaning the home side needs to win by two or more goals here.
This current version of Newcastle and how they are playing is right up there with the best in the country. Not only have they won eight successive games across all competitions, it is how they have been winning them that is so impressive.
They are scoring goals for fun, 23 to be precise in those eight victories at an average of 2.88 per game. That includes fixtures against Arsenal, Tottenham, Manchester United and Aston Villa. Eddie Howe’s men are always dangerous when they have their tails up and playing with a swagger. That is exactly how they are going about their work right now.
It was said at the start of the EPL season they were playing quite poorly but still posted the best start in several years. They were winning ugly, but wow, how they have turned that around now.
They are maximizing their non-involvement in European competition this campaign to be a real force in both cup competitions and in the Premier League. The Magpies are up to fifth, just a point behind Chelsea in the last Champions League qualifying spot and only five adrift of Arsenal in second. they have a run of fixtures that all look winnable and that starts here.
If Liverpool slips up, then nine points from home games against Wolves and Bournemouth, followed by a trip to rock-bottom Southampton, will put them in the title race. After all, they are currently playing like champions, not only scoring for fun, as already mentioned, but conceding just three times in that run of eight straight wins.
Newcastle have scored at least two goals in each of their last 10 matches, and I expect more of the same here against a Wolves side who looked to be getting better defensively but have shown familiar frailties in their last two games. Only Leicester has conceded more road goals than Wolves’ 22. The Foxes visited St. James’ Park last month and got thumped 4-0.
Eddie Howe has seen his men cover this handicap in seven of those eight wins. I am taking them to do so comfortably again here.
EPL Pick: Newcastle -1.5 Asian Handicap at -112.
Arsenal vs. Tottenham
Wednesday, 3:00 p.m. ET
On the back of weekend results and the last few weeks as a whole, Arsenal and Tottenham are the two Premier League sides that most bettors would look at to fade. Unfortunately, they play each other here!
The Gunners are priced up at a totally unbackable -250, which is crazy given their last two home performances against Newcastle and Manchester United. With Tottenham, well, you just never know what you will get: the side that ripped Manchester City apart 4-0 on their own patch or the side that drew 0-0 with non-league Tamworth at the weekend.
Mikel Arteta defends his lack of a striker situation nearly every week. He is putting his faith in Kai Havertz, who is missing chance after chance, as well as the penalty that knocked Arsenal out of the FA Cup on Sunday. He looks totally stripped of confidence.
Bukayo Saka is obviously a huge miss with his long-term injury, and now Gabriel Jesus, having just hit some form, has joined him in the physio’s room. Martin Ødegaard not only missed a penalty in regulation time against United but picked up a knock. It would be a disaster if he was absent, too.
Given Tottenham’s inconsistencies I can’t bet them, not even at +600. With the public expecting goals galore, I am prepared to swim against the tide. I am taking Under 3 Asian Total at +108.
Historically, this game tends to feature plenty of goals, but with these two current versions, you have a home team that struggles to convert their chances and has seen the last three matches all cash this bet. The visitors impressed against a previously rampant Liverpool before edging that cup tie 1-0 with a late winner, then had the goalless draw on Sunday.
The goal line, which is set at 3.5, is too high. I want to be a bit more aggressive, hence the play on 3.0 Asian Total. If there are exactly three goals, we get a refund of our stake. The reverse fixture earlier this season, with both sides in better form, ended 1-0 to Arsenal.
EPL Pick: Under 3 Asian Total at +108.
Nottingham Forest vs. Liverpool
Tuesday, 3:00 p.m. ET
My final pick of the week comes in what is arguably the game of the round. Third hosts first, and the +430 on Nottingham Forest to make it eight wins in a row is very tempting. However, we can get the tie onside as well here, so I am taking double chance, which is still plus money.
Liverpool have been superb this season and had a nice win over League Two side Accrington in the FA Cup on Saturday. Prior to that, they were poor in defeat against Tottenham and were very fortunate to come away with a draw against Manchester United in their last league game.
I’ve been vocal in saying the ongoing contract situation with Trent Alexander-Arnold would impact his performances and, as a result, be detrimental to the team as a whole. He was woeful against United and not much better against Spurs after starting on the bench.
I have also been upsetting Liverpool fans who think I have been unfairly negative towards their team, stating that the last couple of weeks have been a good time to take them on. They will come for me again after this pick, but they will also remember all too well Forest doing the ultimate smash-and-grab on them in the reverse fixture. Still, the only side to beat the Reds at Anfield in 15 games across all competitions this season, only two other sides have taken a point.
Nuno EspÃrito Santo has his side playing with incredible belief, winning all of their last seven games and not conceding a goal in any of the last five. Forest has an incredible record against Liverpool when playing at the City Ground. Last season’s 1-0 defeat was their first in the last 14 meetings in Nottingham.
The home side has built their fantastic season on a rock-solid defense, with only Arsenal (18 and six) conceding fewer than their 19 goals overall and seven on home soil. This bet has cashed in nine of Forest’s 11 home games in all competitions this season.
That includes a 2-0 win over Luton on Saturday, where Nuno rested the entire 11 that started the 3-0 win at Wolves in their last league game, perfectly showcasing the strength in depth and team spirit he has created while also meaning his key men will be fresh for this fixture.
There is an argument both managers would sign for a tie in what is a tricky fixture for both clubs so taking the double chance makes perfect sense, especially at a very attractive-looking +120.
EPL Pick: Nottingham Forest or Tie double chance at +120.
