MLB Best Bets Today June 23
Monday felt like Tuesday, as we had almost everybody in MLB on the field, but we actually do have all 30 teams on the diamond today. It is not a traditional day, in that we do have a 4:07 p.m. ET game in Toronto, but everything else will be later in the evening. We have a very wide range of pitchers on the mound tonight, so that should make for an interesting evening.
I’ll be posting my daily best bets Monday-Saturday with a Sunday Night Baseball preview on Sunday, as all the day games make it tough to get something out with lead time out here in Las Vegas. All lines are from DraftKings and are current at the time of publish. Please take the initiative to SHOP AROUND for the best odds. It matters. A lot.
One new offering this baseball season is our Opta AI Player Prop Projections. They are for VSiN Pro Subscribers only, so you can check out our current offers here. Zachary Cohen will be using those projections and his own handicapping to write up MLB player props.
Greg Peterson will have his best bets posted the night before and you can also check out his daily lines to see what looks to be off-market. Steve Makinen has also released his updated Bullpen Betting Systems and DraftKings Splits Systems, plus he’ll have a daily analytics report.
Feel free to use my opinions and thoughts, as well as our suite of MLB Betting Tools, including the DraftKings and Circa Betting Splits, Steve Makinen’s Daily Ratings, Greg Peterson’s Daily Lines, the 1st 5 Innings Analyzer, and Umpire Stats. Check out our new MLB tools powered by Ballpark Pal: Strikeout Projections, Park Factors, and YRFI Report.
Here are the MLB best bets today for June 23:
Astros vs. Blue Jays Prediction
Pick: Astros +105
The 2026 debut of Shane Bieber is reason for the Blue Jays to celebrate, as the fifth starter role has been in a state of flux pretty much all season. However, it’s fair to wonder what Bieber will be able to provide as he returns from elbow inflammation in his surgically-repaired right arm, as Tommy John surgery cost him most of the previous two seasons.
Bieber worked 17 innings over five rehab starts with a 14/5 K/BB ratio and he allowed four homers out of the 27 hits he surrendered. Giving up 27 hits in 17 innings is a lot, especially when you consider that he made one start in the Florida Complex League and one at A-ball. He allowed five runs on seven hits in five innings six days ago in his final tune-up and walked four, which is very un-Bieber-like.
I didn’t think Peter Lambert could keep this up for the Astros and maybe he won’t long-term, but he’s been a great find for the organization after spending last season in Japan. Lambert has held opposing batters to a .198 BA and has only given up a 6.3% Barrel%. I don’t think his .238 BABIP has long-term staying power, but his xwOBA is just 19 points higher than his wOBA and his .212 xBA ranks in the 81st percentile, so there may be more staying power than originally thought.
If nothing else, the Astros, who rank second in reliever ERA and first in reliever FIP over the last 30 days, are live at this plus-money price in Bieber’s return.
Cubs vs. Mets Prediction
Pick: Cubs -105
This is probably the highest-variance game on the card with Edward Cabrera and Kodai Senga, two guys who have had a myriad of issues throughout the season. Cabrera has made 13 starts and has a 5.21 ERA with a 4.86 xERA and a 5.15 FIP over 67.1 innings. Senga has a 9.00 ERA with a 5.11 xERA and a 6.81 FIP in just six starts. He just came back from about six weeks on the shelf and allowed four runs on just two hits in four innings against the Reds. Unfortunately for him, both hits were home runs and he walked four against five strikeouts.
Over the last 14 days, the Cubs are fourth in BB% against RHP, while the Mets are 17th. Collectively, the Mets are slashing just .221/.294/.388 against RHP in that span, while the Cubs are slashing .250/.339/.421 with a much lower K% at 20.2% compared to 25.6% for New York. Stretch it out to 30 days and the Cubs are seventh in BB% against RHP at 10.1% and the Mets are 18th at 7.7%. The Cubs are 14th in wOBA in that split while the Mets are 23rd.
I would not call myself a Cabrera fan by any means, but Senga probably doesn’t deserve to be favored in his second start back given how he looked in his return. Cabrera is a wild card, but the Cubs do have the better offense here and lead the league in Outs Above Average by a large margin, while the Mets rank 20th.
Diamondbacks vs. Cardinals Prediction
Pick: Diamondbacks -105
Another short dog here as the Diamondbacks and Cardinals square off at Busch Stadium. It will be veteran southpaw Eduardo Rodriguez for Arizona and reliever-turned-starter Kyle Leahy for St. Louis.
Rodriguez looks like a massive regression candidate and it’ll probably happen at some point, as he has a 2.45 ERA with a 4.92 xERA and a 4.14 FIP in his 88.1 innings of work. But, he’s done a really good job of working around his walks and his low K% with just a 35.7% Hard Hit% and an 8.0% Barrel%. E-Rod has really located well of late, holding his last four opponents to an 87 mph average exit velocity. It also helps that the Diamondbacks rank third in Outs Above Average.
Leahy has a 4.63 ERA with a 6.09 xERA and a 4.37 FIP on the season over 70 innings. He’s experienced some of that ERA/xERA regression of late, posting a 5.92 ERA with a 5.61 xERA in his last five starts over 24.1 innings. He’s cut down on his walks in that span, so he does have a 3.51 FIP, but he has allowed a 53.8% Hard Hit% and a 12.8% Barrel%. He’s given up 10 Barrels in his last five starts. Rodriguez has allowed 21 total Barrels in 15 starts.
Like the previous game, there’s some potential for variance here, and Rodriguez has some negative indicators, but Leahy’s stand out quite a bit and the Cardinals have used all four of their high-leverage relievers in back-to-back days.
