Nitto ATP Finals tennis best bets: Sinner vs. Medvedev, Alcaraz vs. Djokovic – Saturday, November 18
There isn’t much time left in the 2023 tennis season, but the Nitto ATP Finals should help us go out with a bang. The ATP Tour’s top players are in Turin, Italy for this year-end event and we’re now in the knockout portion of the tournament. This is a tournament in which a lot of pride — and even more money — is on the line. So, these players all badly want to win. With that in mind, I’ll be providing you with daily tennis bets for the rest of the week, and that continues with my semifinals plays on Saturday, November 18.
MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts have
Jannik Sinner vs. Daniil Medvedev
This very well might be Sinner’s tournament to win, as he’s playing some of the best tennis of his career and is getting to do it in front of his home fans. But Medvedev still has the edge in this head-to-head series, and I still believe he’s a bit better than Sinner right now. That makes it hard to lay off him as a plus-money play, especially after what we saw from the two of them in Vienna a few weeks ago. These two played a very tight three-set match, with Sinner winning a first-set tiebreaker and then winning the third set to win the event. But we were very close to seeing Medvedev take that thing in straight sets, making it hard not to take him here. This feels like a legitimate coin toss, so I’d rather take the guy with the better payout. Medvedev is also a bit more proven in big matches, and he’s one of the best in the world when it comes to making adjustments.
Bet: Medvedev ML (+130 – 2 units)
Carlos Alcaraz vs. Novak Djokovic
These two have really never played a straightforward match. Both players have won at least a set in all four of their previous meetings, even though two of them came in best-of-five matches at Grand Slams. But these are the two best players in the world and they always seem to bring the best out of one another. So, I’m expecting them to do the same here. Alcaraz hasn’t played his best tennis in the months leading up to this tournament, but he found his game over the course of this week. Now, he should be ready to push Djokovic, who isn’t as motivated as usual here. Look for this one to be decided in a third set, regardless of which way it goes. But I’d be lying if I said I wasn’t rooting for Djokovic, as I do have some pre-tournament futures on him to win this event.
Bet: Over 23.5 (-105 – 2 units)
2023 Overall Record: 317-288 (+57.91 units)
