WNBA Picks
Well, the Portland Fire decided to no-show in the second half yesterday, so we split our two bets 1-1, bringing the current run in June to 11-4. Monday night has a tripleheader to invest in, featuring the Indiana Fever visiting the Washington Mystics, the Connecticut Sun hosting the New York Liberty, and the Las Vegas Aces hosting the Seattle Storm. Of course, TSI has projections for all of the matchups so let’s see where there’s some value in the market for Monday night.
Washington Mystics (+5.5) vs Indiana Fever, O/U 170.5
Washington comes into this game 4-5 on the season as a young team that’s probably still a year or two away from actualizing their potential. They’re just 1-2 at home, despite being about 6 points better at home than on the road. Indiana is 5-5 coming off a loss to the Liberty, and they’ve been 6 points worse on the road than at home this season. They both score fewer points and allow more points on the road, which makes them an attractive fade target in road games. TSI projects Indiana as just a half-point favorite, with a total of 169.5. I’m going to back the Mystics at home here, and think they have a legitimate chance to win the game.
Bet: Mystics +5.5 (Play to +3.5)
Connecticut Sun (+12.5) vs New York Liberty, O/U 163
Connecticut comes into this game with just two wins on the season, and only one of which was at home. They have been about 1.5 points better at home, although “better” is a relative term when you’re the worst team in the league. New York is finding its footing after a slow start, winning four in a row but playing their first road game since May 14th. TSI projects Liberty -14.5 with a total of 170.5. I’d lean Liberty here, but I think the Over is a more attractive play, as Connecticut home games have scored about eight points more per game than their road games, and New York similarly has seen their road games score about 10 points more per game than their home games.
Bet: Over 163 (Play to 165)
Las Vegas Aces (-15.5) vs Seattle Storm, O/U 159.5
Vegas is on a three-game winning streak after losing a couple straight in May, and are playing just their fourth home game of the season due to a weird May schedule. They picked up a good win against Golden State at home last game but got blown out by Phoenix in the home opener and lost to the Sparks in their second home game. Due to the small sample and the blowout by Phoenix, they’ve been 11 points worse at home than on the road. Seattle has now lost five straight games by an average of 17 points per game. To add insult to injury, they’re about 6.5 points worse on the road. TSI projects Aces -12 with a total of 162.5. I’d love to back the Aces here, but the number disagrees, and I don’t trust Seattle’s offense enough to play the over, so I’m going to pass here altogether.
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