WNBA Picks
We’re back with another trifecta of games on Saturday, after a pretty entertaining night in the W. LA won their second straight game against the Sky, which cashed a money line ticket for us, but Toronto failed to cover against Dallas, allowing 108 points in the process, and the Valkyries/Storm game was a snoozefest that only totaled 143 points. On Saturday, we’ve got the Lynx vs Liberty, the Dream vs Fire, and the Aces vs Mercury. TSI is locked and loaded with projections, so let’s get to the numbers.
Minnesota Lynx (-5.5) vs New York Liberty, O/U 174.5
The big news in this game is injuries; Olivia Miles has missed a couple Lynx games but is not listed on the injury report. New York will be without Leonie Fiebich and Satou Sabally, while Pauline Astier is questionable for the Liberty. I’ve been looking at regression candidates – teams that have been way over/under-performing over the last three games relative to their season-long rating, and no one fits the bill better than Minnesota since Miles has missed time. My TSI “regression score” indicates Minnesota is due for +8 differential in regression compared to New York. TSI projects Minnesota -4 with a total of 174, so unfortunately the market is over-anticipating the Miles + regression effect here. I definitely don’t want to bet against Minnesota here, and both teams have been relatively the same in their home/road roles, so no hidden edge on New York there either. I’m going to pass altogether.
Atlanta Dream (-12.5) vs Portland Fire, O/U 173.5
Atlanta came through and covered a big number for us two days ago, and their numbers still indicate some major positive regression coming their way as they’ve been 6.5 points worse than their season average over the last three games. The problem is, Angel Reese is questionable with a leg injury and Brionna Jones is doubtful; however, on the flip side, Portland’s Sarah Ashlee Barker is out Saturday for unknown reasons. TSI projects Atlanta -13 with a total of 173.5, so there’s not much value anyway, and the injuries only complicate that. If Reese plays, I’d lean Atlanta because they’re +9 in the expected regression differential compared to Portland, who’s been five points better than their season average over the last three. This is another pass for me until I know Reese’s status.
Las Vegas Aces (-9.5) vs Phoenix Mercury, O/U 170.5
This is where we’re going to make our money tonight. Vegas got Aja Wilson back last game and she went for 32 and 10, reminding everyone why she’s the 4x MVP. The Aces are near the top of the “positive regression” expectation right now after being six points worse over its last three games compared to its season average. Phoenix has been 3.5 points better than its season average over the last three, so regression is due to hit hard soon for these teams. The only concern for me here is that Vegas has been substantially worse at home for some reason, while Phoenix has been much better on the road. I always caveat those numbers with “it’s a small sample”, but worth noting, nonetheless. TSI projects Vegas -10 with a total of 171.5, and my regression numbers tell me the Aces and the Over are very much the plays here. For the total, these teams are combining for 16 points of expected regression to the Over here, so I strongly disagree with this market move downward and think we see a high-scoring Aces win and cover tonight.
Bet: Aces -9.5 or better
Bet: Over 170.5 or better
For all of my WNBA picks, including prop bets and live plays, be sure to follow me on X @TShoeIndex and turn your notifications on to get real-time updates from me on all things WNBA.
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