WNBA Picks
We split our two bets last night, but were just a point away from the sweep. The Liberty/Mystics game landed 169 when we had Under 168.5. It happens. We easily cashed the Sun/Tempo Over. Saturday has a three-game slate on deck for us, beginning at 1 p.m. ET, so let’s get to the projections and bets today.
Atlanta Dream (-5) vs Indiana Fever, O/U 176.5
In a rematch of a game from just a couple days ago, the Dream are now the host after winning on the road at Indiana in a game in which each team scored 100 points. Now, we need to analyze the home/road splits from the other perspective since this one is in Atlanta. Good news for the Dream, they’ve been three points better at home than on the road, not to mention over their last five games, they’re 4-1 by an average score of 98-87. Indiana has been five points worse on the road than at home this season, scoring 13 fewer points per game away from home. TSI projects Atlanta -3.5 with a total of 172.5. I don’t trust Indiana on the road, and I don’t want to take the Under, either, as 10 of the last WNBA games have gone Over the total, and Atlanta has scored 100 three times in five games, so I’m going to pass on this game.
Phoenix Mercury (-6.5) vs Seattle Storm, O/U 162
Phoenix would love to get a win here at home to stop their four-game skid, where they’ve been outscored 89-81 on average, although Seattle could use a win of its own after losing 9 straight games by an average of 85-74. At home, Phoenix has actually been worse, as they’ve allowed 15 more points per game at home. Seattle has been dreadful on the road, 7.5 points below their already terrible power rating. TSI projects Mercury -10 with a total of 165 in this game, and I think I’m going to fade Seattle on the road and back Phoenix plus the Over, as Mercury home games have averaged 11 more points per game than their road games.
Bet: Mercury -6.5 (play to -8)
Bet: Over 162 (Play to 163)
Dallas Wings (-9.5) vs Chicago Sky, O/U 172
Dallas is just 2-3 in its last five after winning seven straight previously. Chicago has lost four straight games and is allowing 90 points per game in the span. TSI projects Dallas -9 with a total of 166 in this game. At home, Dallas has been 10 points better than on the road, winning against non-playoff teams like Chicago by an average of 85-65 at home. Chicago on the road has actually been five points better, mostly tightening up on the defensive end and allowing six fewer points per game on the road. Their road games against playoff teams have only averaged 164 points per game, so I’m playing the Under here.
Bet: Under 172 (Play to 170)
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