Detroit Tigers 2025 preview
It has been a long and arduous road for the Detroit Tigers, but it looks as though a new window of contention has finally opened. It took a long time to get out from under the bloated contracts of the Dave Dombrowski years, but with Mike Ilitch’s passing in 2017, the blueprint for the rebuild was designed and got underway.
Ilitch bought the Tigers in 1992 and he experienced a lot of losing before a 2006 World Series appearance. That little taste was enough to get him to spend as much as he could on the ballclub and the end result was four straight division titles from 2011-14, including another World Series loss. Unfortunately, a lot of the guys on those teams aged poorly and it was clear that the window had slammed shut by the time of his death.
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Ilitch died six weeks before the start of the 2017 season, a year in which the Tigers went 64-98. They did that again the next season and then totally bottomed out in 2019 at 47-114. Now, though, the team is in the midst of a resurgence. The Ilitch family still controls the team and they’re getting ready to spend money again, which they did by acquiring Gleyber Torres and Jack Flaherty, plus they were competitive until the end in the Alex Bregman sweepstakes.
What really kickstarted the organization’s renaissance were two executive decisions. The first was signing AJ Hinch as manager after he was dismissed by the Astros for his role in the sign-stealing scandal and subsequent suspension. The other was firing GM Al Avila during the 2022 season.
The Tigers head into 2025 off of their first postseason appearance in over a decade and more hope than they’ve had in a very long time.
2025 Detroit Tigers Odds
(odds from DraftKings as of Feb. 25)
World Series: +3500
AL Pennant: +1300
AL Central: +270
Win Total: 83.5 (-110/-110)
Make Playoffs: Yes +110 / No -130
Detroit Tigers Preview: Offense
The pitching staff has the chance to shine, but for the Tigers to reach their ceiling, they’re going to need to see some gains and improvement on this side of the spectrum. Detroit finished 25th in wOBA last season, one of six teams with a sub-.300 wOBA. They had a 95 wRC+. They were not a good offensive team at all. They struck out too much, didn’t walk enough, didn’t create enough run-scoring opportunities, and ranked 24th in home runs.
The cooler weather in the first couple months of the season certainly doesn’t help, but Detroit had nearly identical statistics between the first half and second half. Coming up short on Bregman definitely hurts, but showing confidence in the internal options does have the chance to pay off. I still would have liked to see more of an impactful signing than Torres, but some unfortunate circumstances on the health front hurt the Tigers last season.
Platoon bat extraordinaire Kerry Carpenter was limited to 87 games and 296 plate appearances, but he posted a .284/.345/.587 slash with a .390 wOBA and a 160 wRC+. I’m not expecting him to carry those numbers for the full season, but he does mash right-handed pitching and hit 18 homers overall with a 176 wRC+ against righties in 264 PA. The only better hitters against RHP with at least 200 PA were Aaron Judge, Shohei Ohtani, Kyle Tucker, Juan Soto, and Bobby Witt Jr.
Parker Meadows is the wild card here to me. Meadows had a mixed bag of minor league numbers and struggled in his first MLB cup of coffee in 2023, but he posted a 111 wRC+ in 82 games and 298 PA last season. Meadows had a 130 wRC+ in Triple-A, but missed a month at the MLB level with a hamstring injury. If nothing else, he’s a solid baserunner and a very good defender, so even if the bat regresses, he’s still a good Major Leaguer.
Riley Greene’s breakout offensive season in 2023 went up a notch in 2024 with a .355 wOBA and a 135 wRC+. He’s also one of the few Tigers who walks. His K% has improved, albeit slightly, in all three seasons and more contact with his solid contact authority metrics could be a huge gain for the Tigers. He doesn’t chase a lot, but swings and misses in the zone a lot. Fixing that bugaboo would provide way more sustainability to his improved numbers.
Hopes are high for Jace Jung, the brother of Rangers 3B Josh Jung, who did well against Triple-A pitching and held his own at the MLB level in 94 PA. Jung has big power as a three true outcomes hitter who will walk and strike out a lot. Colt Keith is the bat-to-ball guy whose 27 HR from the minors in 2023 didn’t translate to the MLB level, but he’s viewed as a solid hitter and he’s just starting his age-23 season. Trey Sweeney raked at every minor league level as well.
In researching the Tigers, it was noted that a lot of players have been working on swing changes or improved their diet and fitness over the offseason. I think this could be an improved offense from the group that was 19th in runs scored last season
Detroit Tigers Preview: Pitching
I purposely left Jake Rogers out of my offensive discussion because he’s not a good hitter, but he was an elite defender behind the plate. He was worth 13 Defensive Runs Saved and 13.6 Framing Runs per FanGraphs (9 per Statcast), along with 8 Blocks Above Average. Catcher defense is something that has been hard to pin down over the years, but there’s something to be said about the confidence of being able to throw to a guy like Rogers. It allows a really talented pitching staff to feel comfortable throwing pitches in the dirt in any count.
With virtually all organizations that make a significant investment into analytics and a number-driven front office, the pitching staff comes around before the hitters do. That is the case with the Tigers. Led by Cy Young Award winner Tarik Skubal, the Tigers were fourth in ERA and second in FIP as a staff. And it wasn’t just the starters either. The bullpen was fifth in ERA and 11th in FIP.
Health is always the concern with Skubal. He managed to make 31 starts and throw 192 innings last season after being limited to 15 starts and 80.1 innings in 2023. I’m always going to be worried about huge workload increases, but Skubal’s elite numbers over the last two seasons are hard to find fault with, especially with the incredible K/BB ratios. Skubal has 330 strikeouts against just 49 walks over his last 46 starts and I would expect him to be great again if his health allows.
Flaherty has given the reigning division champion Guardians a little bulletin board material, saying that the Tigers would have won that ALDS series if he wasn’t traded to the Dodgers. He may not be wrong, as Flaherty had a 2.95 ERA with a 3.12 FIP in 106.2 innings before the trade. It was stunning that the Tigers even made the playoffs giving up Flaherty, but he’s back on a 1+1 deal with an option for next year.
I don’t think Flaherty meant any disrespect towards Reese Olson, who could be this season’s breakout star in the rotation. The 25-year-old Olson had a 3.53 ERA with a 3.64 xERA and a 3.17 FIP in 112.1 innings. He cut his HR/FB% by nearly half and only gave up seven long balls with a nice uptick in ground balls. With an above average SwStr% and an above average Chase Rate, I think better sequencing could lead to more strikeouts.
And speaking of strikeouts, it seems that top prospect Jackson Jobe is ready to go. The Tigers used him for four MLB innings last season after he had a 2.36 ERA with a 3.41 FIP in the minors over 21 starts, mostly at Double-A. The 22-year-old has added a curveball and two-seamer to generate more swing and miss, as the 2021 third overall pick is knocking hard on the door.
I like the upside of this rotation a lot. There are injury concerns with every team and maybe they are a little greater here given the importance of Skubal, but Detroit has been building towards this being the central focus of the team for a while and they’re at the point now where it has all come together.
This is also a really stout bullpen. I really like the additions of Tommy Kahnle and John Brebbia as well. Tyler Holton is one of the most underrated arms in the AL and Beau Brieske has morphed into a top-notch setup man in front of closer Jason Foley. This is another strength for Detroit.
Detroit Tigers Player to Watch
SP Reese Olson
Olson missed nearly all of the second half, as he only pitched 11 innings. He held the opposition to a .282 wOBA in 101 first half innings with a 3.30 ERA and 3.07 FIP. His slider is his most popular pitch and it induced a 45.5% Whiff% with a .143 BA against and a .194 SLG. His changeup also yielded some very positive results. He ranked in the 86th percentile in GB%, which kept his 12th percentile Hard Hit% from being too detrimental.
But, I see a lot of upside here. He was in the 75th percentile in Whiff% and 87th percentile in Chase%. He’s a guy that gets swings and misses, gets guys to expand the zone, and I ultimately think that leads to more strikeouts and improved exit velocities as we move along. He’s not a big guy, so he doesn’t generate much extension, which forces his fastball velocity to play down a bit. He does get great run on his sinker, though, and I think that could be a separator for him this season.
Detroit Tigers Season Win Total Odds & Prediction
I hate to say this as a Guardians fan, but the Tigers are a major threat in the AL Central and I, personally, believe that they should be the favorite to win the division. It will be contingent on the health of Skubal, but this is the best rotation, second-best bullpen, and I think this could be the second-best offense behind the Twins this season. This is a group that has the chance for some individual gains on the offensive side to be sure and I think there are a lot of positive vibes around the organization at this point.
I don’t see how this team is any worse than last year’s, which went on a late-season run to win 86 games. Hell, I didn’t even really mention Torres, a professional hitter in every way to set up innings for the run producers. I know people might be scared off by the 47-50 first half and the 34-19 close to the season, but I think that was just the start of a crew coming into its own. I started this section last year talking about how the Tigers had some similarities to the mid-2010s Astros and early-2010s Royals. I still believe that and maybe even more after last season.
Pick: Over 83.5
