Paris Saint-Germain vs. Arsenal Champions League Final Best Bets and Predictions May 30
Here are my selections for Saturday’s Champions League Final between Paris Saint-Germain and Arsenal.
Paris Saint-Germain vs. Arsenal
Saturday, 12:00 p.m. ET
The curtain comes down on the major European soccer season on Saturday as the reigning champions of France and newly crowned champions of England clash in Hungary. The seemingly unstoppable force of Paris Saint-Germain meets the immovable object that is Arsenal.
PSG romped to last year’s title with a dominant 5-0 demolition of Inter Milan, but I don’t think they will have it so easy this time around to become only the second side after Real Madrid to win consecutive finals. The Gunners are looking to become the 10th team to complete an unbeaten Champions League campaign to lift the famous trophy for a first time, and they couldn’t be in better form.
Mikel Arteta’s men enter this final as the underdog, but I feel they offer some value at +225. Much of the success of their season has been built on a watertight defense, conceding an incredibly low six goals across their 14 games in this competition.
There is no denying the holders are a ferocious attacking unit, having plundered 44 goals throughout the current campaign, just one short of Barcelona’s record set in 2000. Arsenal will need some fortune, an off day from the Parisians, and a masterclass from their own backline, but if anyone can do it in World soccer, it is them.
Arsenal will be riding high on the momentum of a first Premier League title in 22 years, having kept Manchester City at bay to illustrate their resilience. While edging past Bayer Leverkusen, Sporting CP, and Atlético Madrid in tight, low-scoring affairs shows they’re built for knockout soccer.
Given I see value in that moneyline price, there is juice in all the derivative markets. So, my first of four bets in this final is for Arsenal to lift the trophy at +120, meaning we cash as long as they take care of business, be that in regular time, after extra time, or even penalty kicks.
Pick: PSG vs Arsenal – Arsenal to lift the trophy at +120.
As mentioned at the top of this piece, this contest is a clash of styles. PSG have averaged 2.75 goals per game in the Champions League this term and been ruthless in attack, but a record of nine clean sheets and six goals conceded by Arsenal is impossible to ignore.
My experience of elite-level finals suggests that defense usually wins out. Until last season’s romp, where Inter failed to show up, the previous six UCL finals all cashed for Under 2.5 goals.
Despite being completely wild, the 5-4 semi-final first leg defeat of Bayern Munich was the only one of the last four games in this competition that has seen a PSG fixture cash for Overs bettors. They tied the second leg 1-1 and won both quarterfinal legs with Liverpool 2-0.
For Arsenal, they have conceded just once in their last five Champions League ties, with their last six games in the competition all cashing Under 2.5 goals. They will know they can’t allow the game to become stretched or too open or PSG will exploit the transitions.
As a result, Arteta will want to keep things tight for as long as possible, so I expect a tight, cagey first half. Therefore, the Unders looks solid value.
Pick: PSG vs Arsenal – Under 2.5 goals at +100.
As well as their incredible defense, the other standout weapon in Arsenal’s armory has been their prowess at set-pieces. They rank third for expected goals from such situations across the competition and have scored five times.
However, in the Premier League, they have put up serious numbers. Scoring 23 times in 38 matches is a huge amount, and their expected goals total is a league high.
The main threat throughout the campaign has been Brazilian defender Gabriel, and he has constantly proved that knowing that threat is one thing, stopping it is another. Standing at 6ft 3 inches (190.5 cm), the 28-year-old times his runs to perfection, causing chaos in the penalty area, creating opportunity if he gets first contact or not.
There has been occasion when PSG have looked vulnerable defending aerially against physical sides. With the aggressive style the French champions play, Arsenal should get plenty of chances to exploit that.
Gabriel seems to pop up with vital goals in the big games, and I am going to take him to get on the scoresheet in the biggest of the lot at club level. He is plus money to convert a well-delivered free-kick cross or corner, which in turn means I wouldn’t put you off a look at either Bukayo Saka (+400) or Declan Rice (+600) to provide an assist.
Pick: PSG vs Arsenal – Gabriel Magalhaes to score at +900.
My final selection is a prop bet that really stands out, and that is for Khvicha Kvaratskhelia to have Over 1.5 Shots on Target. The Georgian international’s performances in this season’s competition have seen him talked about as the next Ballon d’Or winner.
His 10 goal involvements are more than any other player in the knockout phase this season. He is also the first player to score or assist in seven consecutive knockout stage appearances in the same campaign.
Now commonly regarded as the most dangerous left-sided attacker in the game, Kvaratskhelia had two shots on target in both legs of the quarterfinal vs Liverpool and the semifinal vs Bayern Munich. His consistency is phenomenal, and he has cashed this bet in five of his last six tournament appearances.
To help this bet, Arsenal will be without the injured Ben White, while Jurrien Timber is extremely doubtful, having missed the last two months of the season. That means Cristhian Mosquera will be a third-choice right back and tasked with stopping arguably the best left-sided combination in world soccer.
Pick: PSG vs Arsenal – Khvicha Kvaratskhelia to have over 1.5 shots on target at +150.
