UFC Predictions:
VSiN Primetime producer Britton Hess offers his UFC Fight Night Abu Dhabi best bets and puts pen to paper (well, fingers to keyboard) to hammer out his thoughts and UFC predictions for every fight on the docket.
ARTICLE BEST BETS HISTORY
69-85 (-4.77 Units, -2.81% ROI)
PICK EM HISTORY
133-101 (56.84%)
Cory “Sandman” Sandhagen (+280) vs Umar Nurmagomedov (-355)
Over 4.5 Rounds (-140) | Under 4.5 Rounds (+110)
Cory Sandhagen is the forgotten man in the UFC’s bantamweight division. He has a 17 and 4 record as a professional fighter, with three losses in the UFC. All of his UFC losses are versus champs and guys who fought for championships: Petr Yan, TJ Dillashaw, and Aljamain Sterling; he has done well for himself in the organization. Additionally, he has beaten long-time contenders like Rob Font, Marlon Vera, Song Yadong, Frankie Edgar, and Marlon Moraes.
It is crazy to see him as such a big underdog versus Nurmagomvedov. Sandhagen is a well-rounded fighter who can finish with his hands or on the ground with submissions. He is tall for the division, standing 5-foot-11 with a 70-inch reach. He has 10 UFC wins, with six of those coming inside the distance, and he has been a fight away from fighting for the belt three or four times in his career already. With a win versus Nurmagomdedov, he will be undeniably as deserving of a shot at the champ Sean O’Malley.
Sandhagen averages 5.33 significant strikes per minute as a UFC fighter with just 44% accuracy, indicating how much volume he throws inside the octagon. Defensively, he gets hit 3.4 times per minute, but he defends 58% of the strikes opponents throw. Additionally, he is solid on the ground, landing 1.36 takedowns per 15 minutes in the cage. His accuracy is only 33%, but he has also fought most of the top wrestlers in the division. Overall, Sandhagen has a 64% takedown defense rate, which is very good considering the high-level wrestlers he has fought. Sandhagen is on a three-fight winning streak and is definitely on his side; however, he is going to be in a very hostile environment in Abu Dhabi.
Umar Nurmagomedov has a 17-0 professional MMA record and is one of the most famous last names in the sport. He is cousins with Khabib Nurmagamedov and has lived up to the family name. He is another Dagestani scrapper who has the stereotypical elite wrestling that comes with fighters from that region. In the UFC, he has a 5-0 record, with three of those wins coming inside the distance. Most recently, he won a decision versus Bekzat Almakhan, who is one of the more highly-rated prospects in the bantamweight class.
You can’t fault Nurmagomedov for taking care of business, but you can poke holes in his strength of schedule, in his first five UFC fights he was never shorter than a -540 favorite. I think many people are just assuming that Nurmagomedov is going to be going to be able to dominate Cory Sandhagen on the ground, but this is a huge step up in class. He could find himself in a new position versus a game opponent. That said, Umar has done what is necessary at every turn, and he lands 4.75 significant strikes per minute while his opponents land just 0.56, a ridiculously low number. Furthermore, he has landed 14 takedowns in his five UFC fights and has a 100% takedown accuracy rate, illustrating just how tough the task at hand will be for Sandhagen.
I can’t, with good conscience, fade Sandhagen in this spot. It is important to look at alternate ways of attacking a fight where there is a favorite with an out-of-line number. I believe Sandhagen will have a shot to win this fight, and I also think that his submission game presents a real issue for Umar Nurmagomedov, who has been in some tricky spots on the ground in the past. I also don’t think Sandhagen will accept position when on the ground.
FIGHT WINNER: Cory Sandhagen
UFC FIGHT NIGHT BEST BET: Sandhagen/Nurmagomedov Fight does not go the distance (+100)
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Shara Magomedov (-258) vs Michal Oleksiejczuk (+210)
Over 1.5 Rounds (-130) | Under 1.5 Rounds (+100)
Despite being a Russian, Shara Magomedov has a much more potent striking attack than grappling, and he has a great opponent to show his skills versus Michal Oleksiejczuk. In two UFC fights, Magomedov has landed a ridiculous 7.10 significant strikes per minute. He went the distance in his UFC debut, but he won his second fight via KO versus a late replacement fighter. I think things can get tricky in the main event, but I think that this fight has a predetermined result, and that result is seemingly going to be for Magomedov due to the volume of his striking attack.
Michal O isn’t the greatest defensive fighter, but he sure is entertaining. Overall, he has a 7-6 record with one no contest in the UFC. Five of his losses have come via submission and the sixth was via decision. Statistically, Oleksiejczuk is okay, as he lands 5.07 significant strikes per minute. However, he absorbs 4.27. I look to Michal O to turn some heads here with his durability on the feet, and given that Magomedov isn’t the biggest wrestling threat, he has a chance to draw this one out. But, at the end of the fight, I think that the result will be dictated by the fact that Shara Magomedov will have landed almost twice as many significant strikes as Michal O.
FIGHT WINNER: Shara Magomedov
UFC FIGHT NIGHT BEST BETS: Shara Magomedov via Decision (+350) vs Oleksiejczuk, Risk 1 Unit to Win 3.5
Magomedov OVER 50.5 significant strikes landed (-115), Risk 1.15 Units to win 1
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Marlon “Chito” Vera (+114) vs. Deiveson FIgueiredo (-135)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-298) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+220)
Chito Vera is one of the most decorated fighters in the bantamweight division. The only thing missing from his mantle is that belt. However, we know a few things about Chito at this point in his career. The first is that he takes round one very slowly in a three-round fight, which is a major liability because he has to win rounds two and three or get a finish. Vera, despite having a couple of highlights, is not much of a finisher as of late. Chito showed his durability in his bantamweight Championship loss to Sean O’Malley, where he ate some massive shots. But Chito spends too much time looking for the perfect shot instead of taking what is available. Versus fighters who are not way over the hill like Pedro Munoz, Dominick Cruz, and Frankie Edgar is where Vera truly shines.
Figueiredo traveled up from the flyweight division to the bantamweight weight class. His skills made the trip, but his power did not. He can still grapple well, and he can still land a bunch of strikes, but he is not knocking anyone out cold like he did when fighting smaller fighters. Figueiredo is an extremely well-rounded fighter who can win on his feet, and he can win on the ground. Given his opponent, Chito Vera has great takedown defense and a chin as strong as anyone else in the division. I’m not banking on a finish here. However, I am relying on FIgueiredo’s overall skills to get the job done.
FIGHT WINNER: Deiveson Figueiredo
UFC FIGHT NIGHT BEST BET: Deiveson Figueiredo (-135) vs. Vera, Risk 1.35 Units to Win 1
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Tony “El Cucuy” Ferguson (+410) vs. Michael Chiesa (-550)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-125) | Under 2.5 Rounds (-105)
It is painful to say this, but Tony Ferguson has been washed since before many of the fighters on this card were even on the UFC roster. Ferguson is on a seven-fight losing streak, a feat that I’m not sure has ever been accomplished in the modern era of the UFC. Anyone with a weaker reputation than Ferguson would have been off the roster three fights ago. However, Ferguson has cultivated a cult following, and he earned it the hard way by going on a ridiculous 12-fight win streak between 2013 and 2019. That said, we haven’t seen a good Tony Ferguson this decade. I don’t know why he’s still in the cage, I don’t know why he’s on this card, I don’t know why they are putting him on the main card… but there is a sliver of hope for Tony, he’s fighting another over the hill fighter in Michael Chiesa.
Four years ago, you could have made an argument that Michael Chiesa deserved a shot at a belt. That time is long gone. Chiesa has lost his last three fights, and none of them have been all that competitive. Chiesa made his name as a Brazilian jiu-jitsu Master; however, in his last three fights, two losses have come via d’arce choke. Despite being solid on the ground, he is one of the worst strikers in the Lightweight division, only landing 1.87 significant strikes per minute. He compensates for that deficiency with an aggressive grappling style, landing 3.33 takedowns per 15 minutes in the octagon.
There are a lot of indicators in this fight that make me want to take a wager. However, it’s tough when Ferguson is 40 and Chiesa is 36. These guys are both starving for a win, and they both probably should be out of the organization already.
FIGHT WINNER: No one, but probably Chiesa
UFC FIGHT NIGHT BEST BET: Pass
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Mackenzie Dern (-120) vs. Lupita “Loopy” Godinez (+100)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-260) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+195)
Mackenzie Dern is a fighter who is 95% of the way to being elite. The problem is that the 5% she’s missing is what separates the great from the good. Dern can grapple with anybody in the division. However, her striking is so subpar that even against an opponent she should be able to outmatch on the ground, she struggles forcing the fight to the ground. She also has problems with getting into firefights with fighters she has no business exchanging strikes with indicating that her fight IQ is not of the highest level.
Godniez is all heart, all effort, all endurance. She is rare air in that she lands higher than four significant strikes per minute while also Landing higher than 3.0 takedowns per 15 minutes in the cage. I believe that these odds have a lot to do with Godniez’s last fight, one in which Virna Jandiroba was able to take control of the scrap on the ground. Dern is a good grappler so I think many people are assuming that she will be able to control this fight on the mat. But I have a lot of belief in Godinez’s grit and determination, and I don’t think she is ever at risk of being submitted. I also don’t think Dern has the type of jiujitsu that is going to turn this fight, and as a pure wrestler, Godinez is far and away better while also being the superior point striker.
FIGHT WINNER: Lupita Godinez
UFC FIGHT NIGHT BEST BET: Godinez (+100) vs. Dern, Risk 1 unit to Win 1
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Joel Alvarez (-148) vs. Elves Brenner (+124)
Over 1.5 Rounds (-166) | Under 1.5 Rounds (+130)
A few years ago, Joel Alvarez was quickly rising the ranks in the UFC’s lightweight division. That hype train ended when he sustained a brutal knockout loss to Armen Tsarukyan. After the loss, Alvarez had a long hiatus before returning to the UFC in 2023, where he resumed his finishing ways versus Marc Diakiese. On paper Alvarez’s 77-in reach sticks out like a sore thumb in this lightweight division where most guys are in the low 70s. he also has a solid significant strikes landed per minute number at 3.65, but his accuracy rate is just 46%, and he also gets hit almost as much as he lands with a defense rate of just 50%. Three of his five UFC victories are via submission. However, he has never actually landed a takedown in the organization, but he attempts 1.3 submissions for 15 minutes in the cage.
Elves Brenner was never supposed to be a successful UFC fighter, he was a +470 Underdog in his first UFC fight as a late replacement opponent for Zubaira Tukhugov, and a +475 Underdog versus Guram Kutateladze. He won both of those fights and then beat Kaynan Kruschewsky for good measure. Most recently, he lost her to Mytybek Orolbai, who is one of the fastest-rising prospects in the division; that fight went to a decision. Overall, I think that Brenner is one of the most dangerous underdogs in this weight class, and I think that on the feet, he is going to outclass Joel Alvarez. Additionally, I think a knockout in this fight is definitely in play.
FIGHT WINNER: Elves Brenner
UFC FIGHT NIGHT BEST BET: Elves Brenner (+124) vs. Alvarez, Risk 1 Unit to win 1.24
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Alonzo Menifield (+185) vs. Azamat Murzakanov (-225)
Over 1.5 Rounds (-160) | Under 1.5 Rounds (+124)
Murzakanov is yet another undefeated Russian fighter on this card. He has a 13-0 record and has not been in any especially competitive fights since joining the UFC. He won his first two fights in the organization via knockout and, more recently, beat Dustin Jacoby via decision. Interestingly, both of his knockouts in the UFC have come in the third round, showing the fact that he does not sell out for the finish early but instead is willing to be patient and pick a spot to get things done. On paper, he shows to be a very active and accurate fighter with a good significant strike defense rate of 57%. he also can find the takedown; it’s just not his preferred way of getting the job done.
Alonzo Menifield is coming off of an embarrassing 12-second knockout loss to Carlos Ulberg in St Louis earlier this year. Before that fight, he was on a four-fight win streak and had a draw mixed in. The most recent result from Menifield has backed him into a corner, and I think he needs to put his best foot forward here in hostile territory. When looking at the tail of the tape his 4-in reach advantage is hard to ignore. He is also more likely to attempt to sub than Murzakanov. That said, striking numbers are not in his favor.
FIGHT WINNER: Alonzo Menifield
UFC FIGHT NIGHT BEST BET: Pass
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Mohammad “The UAE Warrior” Yahya (+300) vs. Kauȇ Fernandes (-380)
Over 1.5 Rounds (-166) | Under 1.5 Rounds (+130)
All things being equal, Mohammad Yahya is probably not a UFC-level fighter. That said, he is a local product and will have the crowd firmly behind him on this card. he is 0-1 in the UFC, with that loss coming to Trevor Peek via decision. That was Trevor Peek’s get-right fight, so it’s perhaps understandable why it went the distance. On paper, he has a lot of deficiencies in the striking department, and he also has a weak 42% takedown defense rate in only one fight versus a guy who is an average wrestler at best.
Fernandes is also an untested fighter in the organization. He is 0-1 in the UFC with a loss coming to Marc Diakiese, however that was via split decision so he showed up in a big way as a big underdog. Like his opponent, Fernandes also has some real limitations in the striking department but that might be the result of him opening his octagon career versus a proven veteran. Overall, this fight is more about learning than wagering, and I’m interested to see what these guys bring to the cage with their chance to get their first octagon win.
FIGHT WINNER: Kauȇ Fernandes
UFC FIGHT NIGHT BEST BET: Pass
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Shamil Gaziev (-290) vs. Don’Tale Mayes (+220)
Over 2.5 Rounds (+130) | Under 2.5 Rounds (-166)
Shamil Gaziev was humbled in a major way when he was given the opportunity to fight in the main event on a Fight Night card. He lost via TKO versus Jairzinho Rozenstruik, and it looked like he might not be in the organization. But he is getting an excellent matchup versus Don’Tale Mayes, one of the least impressive heavyweights in the UFC. I do not expect Mayes to be competitive in this fight, and he is known to quit. He does not have elite striking, and his grappling game is more about catching someone in a bad spot than setting anything up. I look for Gaziev to get back in the win column in front of a friendly audience in Abu Dhabi. I also expect this to be a short fight, and I would be extremely surprised if this one reaches the final bell because Gaziev is a sprinter, and Mayes likes to quit when the going gets tough.
FIGHT WINNER: Shamil Gaziev
UFC FIGHT NIGHT BEST BET: Shamil Gaziev to win via KO (+130) vs Mayes, Risk 1 Unit to Win 1.3
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Guram “Georgian Viking” Kutateladze (-218) vs. Jordan “The Epidemic” Vucenic (+180)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-188) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+145)
Guram Kutateladze has a habit of making fights close, no matter who the opponent is. He has an impressive win over Mateus Gamrot, but he also has losses against Damir Ismagulov and Elves Brenner. The Brenner loss was particularly ridiculous because he was a massive favorite north of five dollars. Overall, he has a solid wrestling base, but it’s mostly defensive, and as a striker, he lands a lot while getting hit a lot. Jordan Vucenic is making his UFC debut on short notice. Vucenic has a 9-1 record in Cage Warriors out of the United Kingdom; however, I do not give success in Cage Warriors all that much weight. There are guys like Paddy Pimblett who have made the transition seamlessly, but there are other guys who have been more guys who have gone 0-2 and done after making the jump to the UFC. Given these circumstances, it’s tough to have faith in the newcomer, but we haven’t seen Kutateladze in a long time. Given the amount of wayward variables and the fight styles of these fighters, I am going contrarian with my wager.
FIGHT WINNER: Guram Kutateladze
UFC FIGHT NIGHT BEST BET: Fight does not go the distance (+120), Risk 1 unit to win 1.2
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Viktoria Dudakova (-170) vs. Sam Hughes (+142)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-425) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+145)
On the surface, this looks like a get-right spot for Viktoria Dudakova; however, Sam Hughes has been in the UFC for a long time and has fought some very good opponents. Dudakova missed weight in her last trip to the octagon, but she got things right for this fight. Overall, Dudakova is 2-0 in the UFC, whereas Sam Hughes is 3-5. I believe in Dudakova’s long-term viability in the division, with that said I believe she can get the job done versus Sam Hughes who is mostly a roster filler at this point.
FIGHT WINNER: Viktoria Dudakova
UFC FIGHT NIGHT BEST BET: PARLAY PIECE, SEE BELOW
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Jai Herbert (-130) vs. Rolando Bedoya (+110)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-188) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+145)
I have no strong thoughts on this fight. Jai Herbert is the dregs of the UFC lightweight division, and his opponent, Rolando Bedoya, is making his debut at 155 pounds. Herbert has a couple of nice wins in the UFC; however, he’s also shown some chinks in the armor, more specifically, versus Fares Ziam. Bedoya looked cut up on the scale ahead of this fight after cutting down from the 170-pound weight class. He has been an extremely willing striker, but his defense is abysmal. I need to see how he adjusts to fighting in this class before I am willing to wager on or against him.
FIGHT WINNER: Rolando Bedoya
UFC FIGHT NIGHT BEST BET: Pass
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Sedriques Dumas (-238) vs. Denis Tiuliulin (+195)
Over 1.5 Rounds (-166) | Under 1.5 Rounds (+130)
Sedriques Dumas is an excellent kickboxer; however, in his four-fight UFC career, he has not had the best matchmaking to display his greatest strengths. He is 2-2 in the organization, and I believe that a match with Denis Tiuliulin is just what the doctor ordered. I look for him to dominate on the feet and land a ton of strikes while Tiuliulin repeatedly runs forward and tries to overwhelm his American foe. Tiuliulin is tough, he is exciting, but he is not all that skilled, especially defensively and his head is an easy target. I think Dumas will be able to take advantage of this opportunity and potentially add some length to the highlight reel.
FIGHT WINNER: Sedriques Dumas
UFC FIGHT NIGHT BEST BET: Parlay- Sedriques Dumas/Viktoria Dudakova (+125), Risk 1 Unit to Win 1.25
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BEST BETS RECAP
Sandhagen/Nurmagomedov Fight does not go the distance (+100)
Shara Magomedov via Decision (+350) vs Oleksiejczuk, Risk 1 Unit to Win 3.5
Shara Magomedov OVER 50.5 significant strikes landed (-115), Risk 1.15 Units to win 1
Deiveson Figueiredo (-135) vs. Vera, Risk 1.35 Units to Win 1
Godinez (+100) vs. Dern, Risk 1 unit to Win 1
Elves Brenner (+124) vs. Alvarez, Risk 1 Unit to win 1.24
Shamil Gaziev to win via KO (+130) vs. Mayes, Risk 1 Unit to Win 1.3
Kutateladze/Vucenic Fight does not go the distance (+120), Risk 1 unit to win 1.2
Sedriques Dumas/Viktoria Dudakova (+125), Risk 1 Unit to Win 1.25
