On Saturday, December 14th, the Atlanta Hawks face the Milwaukee Bucks at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada. We’re going to dive into the remainder of the matchups in this exciting tournament. That said, keep reading for odds, picks and player props for this game, and make sure you also check out our live VSiN programming for more analysis. Our talented hosts and analysts will surely spend some time talking about these games.
MORE: Head to the Pro Picks page for best bets from all of our VSiN hosts and analysts!
How To Watch Hawks vs. Bucks
When: Saturday, December 14th at 4:30 pm ET
Where: T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada
Channel: TNT
Hawks vs. Bucks Odds
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook as of Thursday, December 12th. Look around for the best prices!
Moneyline: Bucks -162, Hawks +136
Spread: Bucks -3.5 (-110), Hawks +3.5 (-110)
Total: Over 231 (-110), Under 231 (-110)
Hawks vs. Bucks Analysis
The Hawks have won seven of their last eight games, including Wednesday’s impressive 108-100 win over the Knicks at Madison Square Garden. Over the course of the eight games, Atlanta’s net rating is +4.6. This Hawks team has also made big strides defensively, as their defensive rating in this recent stretch is 109.5. That would be good for the eighth-best defensive rating in the NBA over the course of the entire season. And when you combine the improved defense with a Trae Young-led offense, you’re talking about a very dangerous basketball team.
The issue I have is that it feels like there has been a market overreaction to the two Eastern Conference quarter-final games. Sure, the Hawks deserve all the credit in the world for beating the Knicks on the road, and it would have been nice to see the Bucks win by more against a depleted Magic team. But Orlando is going to be a good defensive team without Franz Wagner and Paolo Banchero. That’s just in the team’s DNA. That said, I don’t think we should knock Milwaukee for not winning that game by more. It’s easy to overlook an opponent, even in a tournament like this. The Bucks are still a bit better than the Hawks. Our analytics guru Steve Makinen has a Power Rating of 99.0 stamped on Milwaukee this season, while Atlanta’s is down at 95.5. Also, Dunks & Threes has the Bucks ninth in the NBA in adjusted offensive rating (114.1) and 13th in adjusted defensive rating (112.3). That’s better on both ends of the floor than the Hawks, who are 21st in adjusted offensive rating (111.0) and 17th in adjusted defensive rating (113.6).
I also just don’t love the on-court matchup for Atlanta. Sure, Dyson Daniels is going to be able to guard Damian Lillard. There’s a good chance that goes well for the Hawks. But Brook Lopez’s ability to shoot the 3 (35.5%) will pull Clint Capela away from the basket. That will then let Giannis Antetokounmpo attack the basket without the threat of a rim protector meeting him. And if Atlanta loads up to stop him, Antetokounmpo will kick to one of Milwaukee’s snipers. There are plenty throughout the rotation, especially now that AJ Green (47.5% 3PT) is a serviceable defender.
I know a lot of people will point to Atlanta’s win over Milwaukee at Fiserv Forum on December 4th as a reason to back the Hawks, but that was the second night of a back-to-back for the Bucks. And the game before was a win-and-in situation against the Pistons for this very tournament. Milwaukee will be more prepared and ready to go this time around.
For those looking to bet the total, it’s hard to argue with an Under. Three of the four quarter-final games went Under the total. Possessions were down and defensive intensity was way up. These teams are clearly treating the NBA Cup more like the postseason than the regular season. That generally helps the case for a low-scoring game.
Hawks vs. Bucks Player Props
Giannis Antetokounmpo Over 2.5 Steals & Blocks (-105)
Antetokounmpo had four blocks and two steals in the win over the Magic last game. We saw exactly what a locked-in version of the Greek Freak looks like in a big game, and I’d be surprised if he doesn’t rack up stocks (steals + blocks) in Vegas. The Hawks have a bunch of wings that constantly have the ball, meaning Antetokounmpo will be around the action a lot. I actually think he’ll flirt with going Over 2.5 blocks in this game alone, but I don’t mind having the steals. He’ll be aggressive playing the passing lanes here.
Hawks vs. Bucks Pick
I have a very, very strong lean on the Bucks to cover as 3-point favorites (which is out there at a few different sportsbooks). The only reason I’m not actually playing it is that I have Milwaukee to win the NBA Cup at +600. I’m not looking to invest anything else. However, I do think this line should be closer to 4.5 or 5.
Lean: Bucks -3 (-110)
