NBA:
On Wednesday I had the honor of joining Adam Schein on his program here at VSiN, Make It Rain. One of the topics brought up was that of the Philadelphia 76ers. The suspension of Joel Embiid had just come down, so Schein and I discussed the future prospects of the franchise. I made the case for a futures ticket on Philadelphia, but noted that one could wait to see the price dip even further given the fickle availability of its stars. This could totally get worse for Philly if either Paul George or Embiid miss more time.
Well, it just got worse for the 76ers.
According to reports, Tyrese Maxey is expected to miss multiple weeks with a right hamstring injury. Maxey leads Philadelphia in scoring at 27.6 points per game, but he is also the NBA leader in minutes per game. As the 76ers’ highest usage player (31.3%), his absence does not bode well for a team that is 1-6 SU/2-5 ATS with a -7.1 spread differential.
As of now, Philadelphia is about +1600 to win the NBA Finals. Once healthy, this team is going to be one of the best in the Eastern Conference. If you’re like me and are always waiting for a buy-low opportunity just hold on, because one is coming for this team. This blow could send them further down the standings, and further down the odds board as a result.
Bettors can also look towards Kelly Oubre to take advantage of Maxey’s absence. Oubre is already second on the team in usage rate (22.1%) and with George still making his way back from his knee injury – and still on a minor minutes restriction – Oubre should see an increase in workload.
Braun Getting Buckets
Before the season began my biggest concern was the starting shooting guard spot for Denver. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope had left in free agency, and the depth at the position was thin. The presumed starter – Christian Braun – had averaged 6.1 points and 3.1 rebounds on 37.3% shooting from deep in the first two seasons of his career.
Boy, was I wrong.
Braun is off to a tremendous start this season. The third-year guard is averaging 16.0 points, 4.1 rebounds and 1.5 assists per game. More importantly, he is shooting 53.5% from the floor and 46.4% from beyond the arc on 3.5 attempts per game. According to Cleaning the Glass, when he is playing the two, the Nuggets have a +11.8 net rating and its new starting lineup has outscored opponents by 18.9 points per 100 possessions. Braun has been everything Denver needs him to be, and for bettors he can be even more.
On Wednesday night against Oklahoma City, Braun went insane. He scored 24 points on 7-of-14 shooting. More importantly, Braun shot 4-of-8 on 3-point attempts. At BetMGM, a bettor got +125 on Braun to hit two or more 3-point attempts. Today, a bettor is getting +170 on Over 1.5 3-point attempts made for Braun against Miami.
To be fair, Braun has hit multiple 3-point attempts in just three of eight games this season. So, why is this worth discussing? Well, Braun seems to be leaning into his shooting more as the season has gone along.
In the first two games of the season Braun took a total of four 3-point attempts. Since those two contests, he has averaged four attempts per game. He has taken 14 3-point attempts in his last three games alone. That increase in volume is not a mirage.
Denver is 30th in 3-point frequency this season (30.7%). It needs to increase its frequency of shooting, and it does that if Braun is willing to start taking more attempts. This does not seem to just be a random blip on the radar. This likely an edict from the staff for Braun to take up the mantle, and he is doing just that. Especially with both Jamal Murray and Aaron Gordon injured.
Braun can do it too. He is shooting 48.0% on 3.1 catch-and-shoot 3-point attempts per game through eight games this season. The efficiency will likely dip, but he was a 37.7% shooter on such attempts last season. Braun shot 44.4% on corner attempts last season and he is 8-of-16 on those shots this season. Heck, at Kansas he shot 37.8% on 3.5 3-point attempts per game across three seasons.
If the volume increase on 3-point attempts is as real as would seem, bettors are getting tremendous value on these props with Braun.
For example, compare his shot profile over the last six games with that of Al Horford. Braun is averaging 4.0 3-point attempts per game and 36.6 minutes. Horford is putting up 3.9 3-point attempts per game and averaging 25.5 minutes per game. Braun is knocking down 46.4% of his 3-point attempts for the season. Horford is shooting 48.4% from deep. Bettors are laying up to -160 on Horford to go Over 1.5 3-point attempts today. That price is +150 at DraftKings and +170 at BetMGM for Braun to go over the same number.
A Most Improved Player Bet To Make Right Now?
Atlanta’s season is off to a rough start. It is 4-5 SU/2-7 ATS and is 18th in non-garbage time net rating (-3.6). Injuries have been one of the biggest culprits. Bogdan Bogdanovic has played in just one game. De’Andre Hunter has only appeared in two. Kobe Bufkin – the second-year guard expected to assume backup point guard duties – has yet to recover from a shoulder injury suffered before the season.
Despite all of that, there is a shining beacon of hope for Atlanta: Jalen Johnson.
The fourth-year forward is absolutely balling right now. Johnson is the Hawks’ second-leading scorer at 18.9 points per game. He leads the team in rebounds with 10.6 per contest. He is also second in assists (5.3), steals (1.6) and blocks (0.9). On Wednesday night, his versatility was on full display in a win over New York.
Johnson dominated the Knickerbockers. He scored 23 points on 10-of-18 shooting and hit 3-of-6 3-point attempts. Johnson also grabbed 15 rebounds – trailing only Karl-Anthony Towns in the game who had 16 boards – and dished 7 assists. The performance not only led Atlanta to a win, but it also made Johnson the favorite to win Most Improved Player of the Year at DraftKings (+600).
That award is extremely subjective, but Johnson does fit the profile of a player who can win the award. His efficiency has dipped with a larger workload – he is second on the team in usage rate (25.0%) – but he has improved in each major statistical category this season. Even more incredible is what he has done for Atlanta. When he is on the floor, the Hawks’ net rating improves by 29.1 points every 100 possessions. In other words, when he is off the floor Atlanta has a -26.7 net rating, as opposed to a +2.4 net rating when he is on.
The desire by most bettors is to hit a massive future, but +600 is a price that many bettors should consider investing in. Johnson has all of the tools to sustain this play, and Atlanta is going to be more than willing to let him grow in his role. The field around him for the award is weak right now as well.
Oklahoma City’s Jalen Williams is the second choice at +1000 at DraftKings. Williams has seen his scoring improve marginally. He is averaging 2.8 more rebounds and 0.8 assists more per game, but his efficiency is much lower than it was last season. There was a late push last season for Williams to win the award by the betting market, so this might be those bettors manifesting that push once again. But for my money, Johnson has looked like the most improved player by a mile in the early going of this NBA season.
