Welcome to your source of daily analysis of the NBA Playoffs! Here we will break down each game, discuss betting angles, give predictions and more. For more discussion make sure to check out our daily NBA betting podcast: Hardwood Handicappers.
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New York Knicks at Miami Heat (-3.5, 206.5)
Game 4: Heat lead series 2-1
Through three games in this series New York is averaging 108.4 points per 100 possessions in non-garbage time while shooting 27.4% from beyond the arc. One could argue that the poor shooting will regress to the mean for the Knicks, but the problem with that argument is that they are a team which finished 21st in 3-point shooting this season. A regression to the mean still means a below average shooting team, and I believe that to be the issue for New York in this series.
Miami has outscored opponents by 5.8 points every 100 possessions with both Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo on the floor. Their defensive rating in those minutes is 110.8 and they allow just 92.1 points per 100 plays in the halfcourt. The Heat are an elite unit with those two together, and they can continue to thrive defensively as long as they are on the floor against this bi-polar Knicks offense.
New York could also be without Immanuel Quickley tonight due to a sprained ankle he suffered in the loss on Saturday. That is a big offensive piece off the bench that could be absent tonight, and his status is why we’ve seen this line move to where it has. Styles make fights in the NBA playoffs, and Miami’s style has made this fight so far and it should continue to do so.
Lean: Heat (-4)
Golden State Warriors at Los Angeles Lakers (-3.5, 228)
Game 4: Lakers lead series 2-1
After shooting 10-of-35 in non-garbage time, and averaging 0.889 points per possession as a result, the Golden State Warriors seem to be in a prime position to bounce back and even the series tonight against Los Angeles.
The shooting obviously sticks out as an outlier for the Warriors, especially once you realize they shot just 31.6% (6-of-19) on wide-open 3-point attempts in the loss. According to Cleaning The Glass’ location effective field goal percentage metric, Golden State would have posted a 54.7% effective field goal percentage had it shot league average on its shot attempts over the weekend, as opposed to the 43.2% it posted for the game.
Los Angeles had its own outlier performance on offense as well, hitting 12-of-28 3-point attempts in non-garbage time and 10-of-21 wide-open 3-pointers generated. The Lakers are a much worse shooting team than what it showed on Saturday, and should both factors regress to the mean, then this result will be much tighter tonight.
Best Bet: Warriors (+3)
