Today’s NBA Betting Trends:
The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Wednesday, November 27, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top NBA betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
In games between two teams with 40% or less winning percentages and lines of 4.5 or less either way, road teams are on a 96-64 SU and 95-62-3 ATS (60.5%) surge.
System Match (PLAY): TORONTO (+3 at NOP)
NBA teams that have allowed 20 or more 3PT field goals in a game have rebounded well when favored the next time out, going 158-59 SU and 120-94-3 ATS (56.1%) over the last four seasons.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): LA CLIPPERS (-11 at WSH), MIAMI (-3.5 at CHA), DENVER (-9.5 at UTA)
* LA CLIPPERS are on an extended 13-2 ATS run versus Washington (including winning six straight SU and ATS)
System Match (PLAY): LA CLIPPERS (-11 at WSH)
* LA LAKERS are on a 14-3 Over the total run when playing on the back end of an A2A b2b scheduling scenario
System Match (PLAY OVER): LAL-SAS (o/u at 228)
* Under the total was 11-0 (100%) last season when the home team was playing its 4th Home in 10+ Days and the road team was playing on One Day Rest.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): BKN-PHX (o/u at 219)
Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to u, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic NBA betting trend strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the last two seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 12:30 p.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage.
DK NBA Betting Splits system #1: When 63% or more of the handle was on the side of a home team playing as a 4-point favorite or less (or as an underdog) on an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 94-75 ATS (55.6%). This is a fairly profitable system that the public seems to get right consistently. If you see nearly 2/3 of the handle backing a host in an expected competitive NBA game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Match (PLAY): DALLAS
DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: When 59% or more of the handle has been on the road side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 489-433 ATS (53%) over the last season-and-a-half. This has been a very consistent system since I first found it, and for its simplicity, fairly successful. Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. When a good portion of the overall money is on a road team in the NBA, it wins more often than not.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): LA CLIPPERS, MIAMI, DENVER, OKLAHOMA CITY
DK NBA Betting Splits system #3: It is a somewhat rare situation but when there was a majority handle backing a home underdogs in the NBA over the last 1-1/2 seasons, that group produced a 39-24 ATS record (61.9%). I told you earlier that most bettors tend to bet favorites. This lot of 63 games was only 3.0% of the total sample size.
System Match (PLAY): DALLAS
DK NBA Betting Splits system #4: In another somewhat rare situation, but when there was a majority handle backing the team with fewer wins on the season in the NBA over the last 1-1/2 seasons, that group produced a 156-117 ATS record (57.1%). This lot of 273 games was only 13.1% of the total sample size.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PORTLAND, DETROIT
DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA non-Conference games (East versus West) of the last season and a half, DK super majority handle groups of 62% or greater have been successful, as they are 242-201 ATS (54.6%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed a 51.8% success rate, they were 2.8% improved on these more-rare contests.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): LA CLIPPERS, DALLAS, PHOENIX
DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: The number 63% or higher has been a key super-majority number in non-divisional conference games over the last season-and-a-half, with handle groups of that size boasting a 280-233 ATS record, good for 54.6%. This is another 2.8% improvement on the overall majority figures.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ORLANDO, OKLAHOMA CITY
The overall numbers shown earlier detailed that majority bettors have won significantly on money line wagering this season. Here are some more detailed specifics, with some losing angles too:
DK NBA Betting Splits system #9: When the majority money line handle was on a team in a divisional matchup last season, this majority group went 177-84 outright on handle for +30 units, an ROI of 11.5%. This ROI is a notable improvement over all other matchups.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MIAMI ML, DENVER ML
DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: When the majority handle was on road underdogs for a money line wager over the last 1-1/2 season, this majority group has done well, going 86-138 but for +19.67 units and an ROI of +8.8%. It takes patience to wager something that wins only 38% of the time, but the reward is there.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PORTLAND ML, CHICAGO ML
DK NBA Betting Splits system #12: Money line majorities on double-digit road favorites have squandered their bankrolls since January 2023. These majority handle groups are 97-22 SU, but for -46.6 units, an ROI of -39.2%. while majority number of bets groups have gone 101-22 SU but for -43.6 units, an ROI of -35.4%. We will recommend fading these plays until something changes, as backing big road chalk can be a very risky strategy in the NBA.
System Match (FADE): LA CLIPPERS ML
These last four systems involve totals.
DK NBA Betting Splits system #13: One of the best, simplest, and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when a majority of handle bettors were backing the Under in an NBA game. I told you earlier that most NBA bettors love taking Overs. When any majority number have favored the Under option over the last year-and-a-half, the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 263-205, good for 56.2%.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): MIA-CHA, DET-MEM, LAL-SAS, DEN-UTA, BKN-PHX
DK NBA Betting Splits system #14: There has been some decent success for number of bets majorities when they don’t get too heavily invested. In fact, majorities on either side of the total (Over or Under) of 57% or less have gone 235-195 (54.7%) for +20.5 units and an ROI of +4.8% since January 2023.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): UNDER – POR-IND, DEN-UTA
DK NBA Betting Splits system #15: The average NBA game total since January of 2023 has been a touch under 228. In NBA games with “low” totals, or those less than 220, majority handle bettors have gone an impressive 226-198 (53.3%), while majority number of bets groups are a bit better at 234-194 (54.7%). Both groups have proven profitable regardless of which side of the total they have chosen.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OVER – HOU-PHI, SAC-MIN
UNDER – MIA-CHA, BKN-PHX
DK NBA Betting Splits system #16: Majority Under bettors have been successful when sticking to their guns despite DraftKings raising the total off of its opening number. These Under majorities have gone 106-71 (59.9%) since January 2023 by not getting baited into this totals trap.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER): LAL-SAS
Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping
The following NBA betting trends are an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.
We will be tracking 50 top scheduling situations all season long!
* Home teams playing a 3rd in 8+ Days game are 76-48 SU and 70-51-3 ATS (57.9%) hosting road teams on One Day Rest over the last four seasons.
11/27: CLEVELAND vs. Atlanta
System Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND (-10 vs. ATL)
11/27: PHOENIX vs. Brooklyn
System Match (PLAY): PHOENIX (-8.5 vs. BKN)
* Teams playing on 3rd Straight Home game were 69-35 SU and 61-39-4 ATS (61%) hosting teams playing a A2A b2b game over the last two seasons.
11/27: PHILADELPHIA vs. Houston
System Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (+5 vs. HOU)
* Home teams on One Day Rest are 48-36 SU and 47-35-2 ATS (57.3%) hosting teams playing on a 3rd Game in 8+ Days game over the last four seasons.
11/27: GOLDEN STATE vs. Oklahoma City
System Match (PLAY): GOLDEN STATE (+2.5 vs. OKC)
* Home teams playing a H2H b2b game were 37-35 SU and 42-29-1 ATS (59.2%) hosting teams playing a 3rd Straight Road game over the last two seasons.
11/27: PHOENIX vs. Brooklyn
System Match (PLAY): PHOENIX (-8.5 vs. BKN)
11/27: WASHINGTON vs. La Clippers
System Match (PLAY): WASHINGTON (+11 vs. LAC)
* Hosts playing in a H2H b2b game scenario were 20-16 SU and 23-13 ATS (63.9%) over the last two seasons hosting teams playing a 4th Straight Road game.
11/27: PHOENIX vs. Brooklyn
System Match (PLAY): PHOENIX (-8.5 vs. BKN)
* Under the total was 105-75-1 (58.3%) over the last three seasons when the road team was on One Day Rest and the host was playing a 3rd Home in 4 Days game.
11/27: Under the total in INDIANA-PORTLAND
System Match (PLAY UNDER): POR-IND (o/u at 232.5)
* Over the total was 84-58 (59.2%) over the last four seasons when the home team was on a H2H b2b and the opponent was playing a 3rdStraightRoad game.
11/27: Over the total in PHOENIX-BROOKLYN
System Match (PLAY OVER): BKN-PHX (o/u at 219)
11/27: Over the total in WASHINGTON-LA CLIPPERS
System Match (PLAY OVER): LAC-WSH (o/u at 223)
* Over the total was 47-38 (55.3%) over the last two seasons when the home team was on OneDayRest and the road team was playing a H2A b2b game.
11/27: Over the total in CHARLOTTE-MIAMI
System Match (PLAY OVER): MIA-CHA (o/u at 218)
* Under the total was 38-18 (67.9%) over the last three seasons when the home team was on One Day Rest and the road team was playing a 3rd in 8+ Days game.
11/27: Under the total in GOLDEN STATE-OKLAHOMA CITY
System Match (PLAY UNDER): OKC-GSW (o/u at 229.5)
* Under the total was 11-0 (100%) last season when the home team was playing its 4th Home in 10+ Days and the road team was playing on One Day Rest.
11/27: Under the total in PHOENIX-BROOKLYN
System Match (PLAY UNDER): BKN-PHX (o/u at 219)
* Under the total was 9-0 (100%) last season when the home team was playing its 4th Home in 10+ Days and the road team was playing 3rd Straight Road game.
11/27: Under the total in PHOENIX-BROOKLYN
System Match (PLAY UNDER): BKN-PHX (o/u at 219)
* Under the total was on a 37-13 (74%) run to close last season when one of the teams in a matchup was on a 4th Game in 10+ Days schedule scenario and the opponent was playing a One Day Rest game.
11/27: Under the total in PHOENIX-BROOKLYN
System Match (PLAY UNDER): BKN-PHX (o/u at 219)
11/27: Under the total in MIAMI-CHARLOTTE
System Match (PLAY UNDER): MIA-CHA (o/u at 218)
* Over the total was 13-5 (72.2%) last season when the home team was on a H2H b2b and the road team was playing a 4th Straight Road game.
11/27: Over the total in PHOENIX-BROOKLYN
System Match (PLAY OVER): BKN-PHX (o/u at 219)
Top Team-Specific Scheduling Situation NBA Betting Trends
The following are 40 of the top team-specific NBA betting trends that have developed in the NBA over the last few seasons when considering scheduling situations. Like the league-wide systems introduced earlier, naturally, there are reasons that certain teams perform at varying levels based upon their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.
* CHARLOTTE is 32-74 SU and 40-63-1 ATS since the ’22-23 season when playing at home on OneDayRest
11/27: Fade CHARLOTTE vs. Miami
System Match (FADE): CHARLOTTE (+3.5 vs. MIA)
* LA CLIPPERS are on a 16-24 SU and 10-30 ATS skid in its last 40 tries playing a 3rd in 4 days game
11/27: Fade LA CLIPPERS at Washington
System Match (FADE): LA CLIPPERS (-11 at WSH)
* PHOENIX is 19-14 SU but 11-21-1 ATS in its last 33 3rd Straight Home games
11/27: Fade PHOENIX vs. Brooklyn
System Match (FADE): PHOENIX (-8.5 vs BKN)
* LA LAKERS are on a 14-3 Over the total run when playing on the back end of an A2A b2b scheduling scenario
11/27: Over the total in LA LAKERS-SAN ANTONIO
System Match (PLAY OVER): LAL-SAS (o/u at 228)
* TORONTO is 20-10 Over the total since 2022 when playing a 3rd Straight Road game
11/27: Over the total in TORONTO-NEW ORLEANS
System Match (PLAY OVER): TOR-NOP (o/u at 222.5)
NBA Team Strength Systems
The following handicapping information details five NBA betting trend systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last four NBA seasons.
NBA Team Strength Betting System #2:
In games between two teams with 40% or less winning percentages, and lines of 4.5 or less either way, road teams are on a 96-64 SU and 95-62-3 ATS (60.5%) surge.
System Match (PLAY): TORONTO (+3 at NOP)
NBA Team Strength Betting System #4:
Double-digit NBA favorites in non-conference games have gone 185-35 SU but just 100-117-3 ATS (46.1%) over the last three seasons.
System Matches (FADE ALL): INDIANA (-10.5 vs POR), LA CLIPPERS (-11 at WSH)
NBA Team Strength Betting System #5:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the L4 seasons, depending on what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 90-77 (53.9%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 164-141 (53.8%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 231-171 (57.5%).
System Matches (PLAY OVER ALL): ATL-CLE (o/u at 240.5), POR-IND (o/u at 232.5), CHI-ORL (o/u at 225), LAC-WSH (o/u at 223)
NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems
These NBA betting trend systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last four seasons unless noted.
Fade teams off of overtime games
Teams that played in an overtime game the prior day are on a 53-85 SU and 56-77-5 ATS (42.1%) slide, including 27-46-3 ATS in the last 76 games and 17-33 ATS when a pick ’em or favorite.
System Matches (FADE ALL): HOUSTON (-5 at PHI), MINNESOTA (-3.5 vs. SAC)
135 points in a win is a team score to watch for
Teams that won their last game while scoring 135 or more points are on a 205-120 SU, but 145-174-6 ATS (45.5%) skid in the follow-up contest when favored. The record versus divisional foes among these games is a concerning 29-33-1 ATS.
System Match (FADE): NEW YORK (-4 at DAL)
Allowing 135+ points in a game is a sign of trouble
NBA teams off of a game in which they allowed 135+ points and are now favored, have gone 134-80 SU but 95-115-4 ATS (45.2%) in the follow-up contest over the last 6 seasons. Included among this is an 81-102 ATS mark when not playing the next day.
System Match (FADE): DENVER (-9.5 at UTA)
Teams losing despite scoring well are dangerous
Since the start of the 2018-19 season, NBA teams coming off back-to-back losses in which they scored 115+ points offensively have bounced back extremely well in the next outing, going 115-118 SU but 120-98-5 ATS (55%), including 86-51-1 ATS when installed as underdogs.
System Match (PLAY): ATLANTA (+10 at CLE)
Rout wins are a warning sign for the next contest for hosts
NBA home teams coming off any game in which they beat the point spread by 20 points or more are 257-202 SU but 198-249-12 ATS (44.3%) over the last six seasons. The worst situation for these teams comes against divisional rivals, 36-63 ATS.
System Match (FADE): PHOENIX (-8.5 vs. BKN)
Unusual shooting performance systems
NBA teams that have made 50% or more of their 3PT field goal attempts in a contest have responded the next time out by going just 242-256 SU and 221-271-6 ATS (44.9%) in the next game over the last four seasons.
System Match (FADE): NEW YORK (-4 at DAL)
Similarly, NBA teams that have made 20 or more 3PT field goals in a game have struggled the next time out, going just 259-246 SU and 227-265-11 ATS (46.1%) the next game over the last four seasons.
System Match (FADE): BROOKLYN (+8.5 at PHX)
NBA road teams coming off a game in which they made 20+ 3-point shots have gone just 132-157 SU and 131-151-7 ATS (46.5%) in that next contest over the last six seasons.
System Match (FADE): BROOKLYN (+8.5 at PHX)
Unusual defensive performances
NBA teams that hold an opponent to 36% or less field goal percentage in any given game have produced well the next contest as well, going 123-93 SU and 120-92-4 ATS (56.6%) since 2021.
System Match (PLAY): MEMPHIS (-8 vs. DET)
Alternatively to #13 above, NBA teams that have allowed 20 or more 3PT field goals in a game have rebounded well when favored the next time out, going 158-59 SU and 120-94-3 ATS (56.1%) over the last four seasons.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): LA CLIPPERS (-11 at WSH), MIAMI (-3.5 at CHA), DENVER (-9.5 at UTA)
NBA Streak Systems
The following handicapping information details nine NBA betting trend systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.
NBA Streak Betting System #5:
There has been a 3.5% swing in ATS success rate when teams that have lost their last four games or more have taken on losing teams (170-189 ATS, 47.4%) versus when they’ve faced winning teams (228-220 ATS, 50.9%) over the last four seasons.
System Matches: FADE – SACRAMENTO (+3.5 at MIN), NEW ORLEANS (-3 vs. TOR)
SLIGHT PLAY – WASHINGTON (+11 vs. LAC)
NBA Streak Betting System #6:
Teams having lost their last four games or more have been a solid wager when they are a capable offensive team, as those scoring 114 PPG or more are on a 65-75 SU and 77-61-3 ATS (55.8%) surge.
System Match (PLAY): SACRAMENTO (+3.5 at MIN)
NBA Streak Betting System #8:
Teams reaching winning or losing streaks of seven games or more become play against teams in general, going 202-248-2 ATS (44.9%) in the next outing since 2020, and in particular, teams on losing streaks of seven games or more have been terrible in road games, going 26-111 SU and 58-75-4 ATS (43.6%).
System Match (FADE): WASHINGTON (+11 vs. LAC)
Today’s NBA Strength Ratings
The following NBA betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis).
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. WASHINGTON +10.5 (+2.1)
2. CHICAGO +10.5 (+1.7)
3. DALLAS +4 (+1.6)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. MINNESOTA -3.5 (+2.7)
2. OKLAHOMA CITY -2 (+2.0)
3. CLEVELAND -10 (+1.5)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. TORONTO +3 (+6.3)
2(tie). SAN ANTONIO +2 (+3.0)
BROOKLYN +8.5 (+3.0)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. MINNESOTA -3.5 (+1.9)
2. ORLANDO -10.5 (+1.6)
3. LA CLIPPERS -10.5 (+1.5)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. HOU-PHI OVER 219 (+3.1)
2. CHI-ORL OVER 225 (+1.8)
3. SAC-MIN OVER 218.5 (+1.5)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. OKC-GSW UNDER 229.5 (-3.1)
2. TOR-NOP UNDER 223 (-3.0)
3. POR-IND UNDER 232.5 (-2.9)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. PHILADELPHIA +5 (+2.0)
2(tie). CHICAGO +10.5 (+1.7)
WASHINGTON +10.5 (+1.7)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. MINNESOTA -3.5 (+4.3)
2. OKLAHOMA CITY -2 (+3.3)
3. CLEVELAND -10 (+1.8)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. SAC-MIN OVER 218.5 (+3.2)
2. LAL-SAS OVER 227.5 (+2.5)
3. CHI-ORL OVER 225 (+2.2)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. TOR-NOP UNDER 223 (-6.3)
2. OKC-GSW UNDER 229.5 (-4.8)
3. DET-MEM UNDER 225.5 (-2.9)
Top Daily Head-to-Head Series NBA Betting Trends
Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games:
(541) ATLANTA at (542) CLEVELAND
* Favorites are 8-2 ATS in the ATL-CLE series since 2022
System Match: PLAY CLEVELAND ATS
(543) PORTLAND at (544) INDIANA
* Under the total is 12-2 in the last 14 of the POR-IND nonconference series
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total
(545) HOUSTON at (546) PHILADELPHIA
PHILADELPHIA is 10-2 ATS in the last 12 games versus Houston at home
System Match: PLAY PHILADELPHIA ATS
(549) LA CLIPPERS at (550) WASHINGTON
* LA CLIPPERS are on an extended 13-2 ATS run versus WSH (including winning six straight SU and ATS)
System Match: PLAY LA CLIPPERS ATS
(553) NEW YORK at (554) DALLAS
* Underdogs are 11-1 ATS in the last 12 of the NYK-DAL series
System Match: PLAY DALLAS ATS
(555) TORONTO at (556) NEW ORLEANS
* NEW ORLEANS has won seven of the last eight ATS against Toronto
System Match: PLAY NEW ORLEANS ATS
(557) DETROIT at (558) MEMPHIS
* MEMPHIS is 10-1-1 ATS in the last 12 meetings with Detroit
System Match: PLAY MEMPHIS ATS
* Under the total has converted in all six meetings at Memphis since 2019
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total
(559) SACRAMENTO at (560) MINNESOTA
* Road teams have won eight straight ATS in the SAC-MIN series
System Match: PLAY SACRAMENTO ATS
(563) DENVER at (564) UTAH
* Under the total is 4-1 in the last five of the DEN-UTA series in Utah since 2022
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total
(567) OKLAHOMA CITY at (568) GOLDEN STATE
* Over the total has hit in nine straight meetings between OKC and GSW
System Match: PLAY OVER the total
