The following NBA betting trends are featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Sunday, April 14, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.

Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.

 

In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic NBA betting trend strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2022-23 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:30 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage. These systems have been updated to show midseason records as well.

DK NBA Betting Splits system #1: When 63% or more of the handle was on the home side of an ATS wager, this supermajority group was 115-88 ATS (56.6%) last season. For this season so far, that group is 88-83 ATS (51.5%). If you see nearly 2/3 of the handle backing a host in an NBA game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PHILADELPHIA, MIAMI, BOSTON, ORLANDO, INDIANA, GOLDEN STATE, OKLAHOMA CITY, MINNESOTA, SACRAMENTO, NEW ORLEANS

DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: The number from system #1 is a little higher for road wagers. When 65% or more of the handle was on the road side of an ATS wager, this supermajority group was 95-69 ATS (57.9%) last season. This year, that group has followed up with a record of 78-71 ATS (52.3%). Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. While the record has dropped a bit, the 1-1/2-year mark is still very profitable.
System Matches (PLAY): HOUSTON

DK NBA Betting Splits system #3: It is a somewhat rare situation but when there was a majority HANDLE backing a HOME UNDERDOG in the NBA over the last 1-1/2 seasons, that group produced a 27-19 ATS record (58.7%). I told you earlier that most bettors tend to bet favorites. This lot of 46 games was only 3.6% of the total sample size.
System Matches (PLAY): MEMPHIS

At this point, unlike the football studies I conducted, it’s safe to assume that being part of the majority handle of DraftKings bettors on ATS wagers is a relatively sound strategy.

The following two systems show some successes that majority groups at DraftKings enjoyed when looking at bet volume:

DK NBA Betting Splits system #5: We saw earlier that the supermajority benchmark for handle success on ATS was wagers at 63%. It is a touch higher and a completely opposite result when analyzing number of bets. When 69% or more of the number of bets was on a side of an ATS wager (home or road), this supermajority group has gone just 92-114 ATS (44.7%) this season, well below the overall performance of all majorities.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CHICAGO, ATLANTA, GOLDEN STATE, DALLAS

DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA Non-Conference games (East versus West) of the last season and a half, DK majority number of bets groups have been successful, as they are 225-199 ATS (52.8%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed a 50% success rate, they were 2.8% improved on these rarer contests.
System Matches (PLAY): SAN ANTONIO

The overall numbers shown earlier detailed that majority bettors have won significantly on moneyline wagering this season. Here are some more detailed specifics, with some losing angles too:

DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: When the majority handle has been on a team in a divisional matchup this season, this majority group has gone 96-41 outright on handle for +24.21 units, an R.O.I. of 17.7%. This same majority on bet volume has also done well, 95-39 for +19.23 units. A 14.4% R.O.I. Both of these R.O.I.s are notable improvements over all other matchups.
System Matches (PLAY): BROOKLYN ML

DK NBA Betting Splits system #9: When the majority handle was on underdogs for a moneyline wager, this majority group has struggled this season, going 16-28 for -9.31 units and an R.O.I. of -21.2%. This doesn’t seem to be a really significant amount, but when compared to the overall wins of +27.4 units, it represents a significant cut out of the profits. Favorite betting has certainly prevailed so far in 2023-24.
System Matches (FADE ALL): BROOKLYN ML, TORONTO ML, CHICAGO ML, ATLANTA ML, MEMPHIS ML, DETROIT ML, LA LAKERS ML

DK NBA Betting Splits system #10: The success of double-digit favorites this season in winning games outright has clearly paid off for NBA bettors. When analyzing majority handle on games in 2023-24 with double-digit point spreads, majority moneyline bettors have backed the favorite in 87 of 89 games, going 80-7 SU for +33.6 units, an R.O.I. of 38.6%. We will recommend backing these teams until something changes, as this can be a very risky strategy.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CLEVELAND ML, OKLAHOMA CITY ML, SACRAMENTO ML

These last four systems involve totals.

DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: One of the best and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when less than 60% of handle bettors were backing the Over in an NBA game. I told you earlier that most NBA bettors love taking Overs. When less than 60% of them favored that total option over the last year-and-a-half, you could almost conclude that they didn’t like it “as much,” regardless of whether or not it was a majority. Only 520 of about 1400 games fit this criteria, but the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 287-231-2, good for 55.4%.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): TOR-MIA, WSH-BOS, ATL-IND, UTA-GSW, DEN-MEM

DK NBA Betting Splits system #12: When a supermajority of 56% or more of the number of bets was on the Under in a NBA game total, this majority group has been awful, 11-35 this season (23.9%). This number for a supermajority is quite low, evidence of how rarely the betting public bets the low side of a total.
System Matches (PLAY OVER): ATL-IND

DK NBA Betting Splits system #13: The average NBA game total this season has been a touch over 230. In NBA games with extremely low totals, or those less than 220, majority handle bettors are an impressive 49-25 (66.2%), whole majority number of bets groups are a bit worse but still strong at 43-31 (58.1%).
System Matches: PLAY OVER in BKN-PHI, PLAY OVER in CHA-CLE, PLAY OVER in CHI-NYK, PLAY OVER in MIL-ORL, PLAY OVER in PHX-MIN, PLAY UNDER in DEN-MEM, PLAY OVER in DET-SAS, PLAY OVER in POR-SAC

DK NBA Betting Splits system #14: In NBA games with extremely high totals this season, or those 240 or higher, majority number of bets groups have gone just 31-53 (36.9%).
System Matches: PLAY OVER instead in ATL-IND

Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping

The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive NBA betting trend patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.

We will be tracking 50 top scheduling situations all season long!

* Under the total was 97-67-1 (59.1%) over the last two seasons when the road team was on One Day Rest and the host was playing a 3rd Home in 4 Days game.
4/14: Under the total in BOSTON-WASHINGTON
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 227.5)

4/14: Under the total in SACRAMENTO-PORTLAND
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 213.5)

Applying Top ’23-24 NBA Situational Records for the Rest of Season

There is obviously still a lot to be decided in terms of divisional races and which teams will or will not qualify for the postseason. At this point, with over 50 games in the books, we know a lot about the teams, specifically what scheduling situations they have been best or worst at so far in the 2023-24 season. With that in mind, I figured I’d share what have been 17 of the most definitive performance records in various scheduling situations so far and where these angles will apply the rest of the way.

ATLANTA is 7-15 SU and 5-17 ATS (22.7%) versus teams with current Steve Makinen Power Ratings of 95-99.5.
4/14 at Indiana
System Match: FADE ATLANTA (+14 at IND)

ATLANTA is 22-26 SU and 17-31 ATS (35.4%) when playing on a full day’s rest this season
4/14 at Indiana
System Match: FADE ATLANTA (+14 at IND)

The LA LAKERS have gone 26-13 Over the total (66.7%) on the road so far this season.
4/14 at New Orleans
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 230)

MILWAUKEE has struggled in the ordinary One Day Rest scheduling scenario this season, going 26-23 SU but 18-31 ATS (36.7%).
4/14 at Orlando
System Match: FADE MILWAUKEE (+5 at ORL)

ORLANDO has thrived in the commonplace One Day Rest scheduling scenario this season, going 34-15 SU and 33-16 ATS (67.3%).
4/14 vs. Milwaukee
System Match: PLAY ORLANDO (-5 vs MIL)

TORONTO has gone Over the total in 16 of the last 18 schedule spots when playing consecutive road games.
4/14 at Miami
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 220.5)

WASHINGTON is 22-14 ATS (61.1%) as a road underdog this season but 13-21-1 ATS (38.2%) as a home underdog
4/14 at Boston
System Match: PLAY WASHINGTON (+9.5 at BOS)

The following are some of the top team-specific NBA betting trends that have developed in the NBA over the last few seasons when considering scheduling situations. Like the league-wide systems introduced earlier, naturally, there are reasons that certain teams perform at varying levels based upon their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.

* ATLANTA was 36-15 Over the total in the 4th in 6 Days game scenario in last two seasons
4/14: Over the total in INDIANA-ATLANTA
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 240)

* GOLDEN STATE is 71-23 SU and 57-34 ATS at home in the One Day Rest scenario over the last three seasons
4/14: GOLDEN STATE vs. Utah
System Match: PLAY GOLDEN STATE (-8 vs UTA)

* HOUSTON is 34-11 Over the total on the road in the 3rd in 4 Days game scenario over the last three seasons
4/14: Over the total in LA CLIPPERS-HOUSTON
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 221)

* INDIANA is 59-38 Over the total at home in the One Day Rest scenario over the last three seasons
4/14: Over the total in INDIANA-ATLANTA
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 240)

* MEMPHIS is 50-22 SU and 42-29 ATS at home in the One Day Rest scenario over the last two seasons
4/14: MEMPHIS vs. Denver
System Match: PLAY MEMPHIS (+13 vs DEN)

* OKLAHOMA CITY is 23-10 SU and 23-10 ATS in the 3rd Straight Home game scenario over the last two seasons
4/14: OKLAHOMA CITY vs. Dallas
System Match: PLAY OKLAHOMA CITY (-19 vs DAL)

NBA Team Strength Systems

The following handicapping information details five NBA betting trend systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last three NBA seasons.

NBA Team Strength Betting System #2:
In games between two teams with 40% or less winning percentages, and lines of 4.5 or less either way, road teams are on a 92-58 SU and 89-58-3 ATS (60.5%) surge.
System Matches: PLAY DETROIT (+4.5 at SAS)

NBA Team Strength Betting System #5:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last three seasons, dependent upon what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 82-69 (54.3%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 158-131 (54.7%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 212-148 (58.9%).
System Matches: PLAY UNDER in BKN-PHI, PLAY OVER in TOR-MIA, PLAY OVER in CHA-CLE, PLAY OVER in CHI-NYK, PLAY OVER in ATL-IND, PLAY OVER in DAL-OKC, PLAY OVER in DEN-MEM, PLAY OVER in POR-SAC

NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems

These NBA betting trend systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the L4+ seasons unless noted.

Teams losing despite scoring well are dangerous
Since the start of the 2018-19 season, NBA teams coming off back-to-back losses in which they scored 115+ points offensively have bounced back extremely well in the next outing, going 108-114 SU but 115-94-3 ATS (55%), including 83-49 ATS when installed as underdogs.
System Match: PLAY WASHINGTON (+9.5 at BOS)

Close wins haven’t provided for momentum going forward
NBA teams that won as favorites by a close margin (1-3 points) have gone 232-125 SU but just 152-194-11 ATS (43.9%) in the next contest when favored again.
System Match: PLAY MINNESOTA (-2 vs PHX)

Rout wins are a warning sign for next contest for hosts
NBA home teams coming off any game in which they beat the point spread by 20 points or more are 245-192 SU but 188-238-11 ATS (44.1%) over the last 5-1/2 seasons.  The worst situation for these teams comes against divisional rivals, 33-61 ATS.
System Match: FADE BOSTON (-9.5 vs WSH)

Unusual shooting performance systems
NBA teams that have made 50% or more of their 3PT field goal attempts in a contest have responded the next time out by going just 230-240 SU and 211-254-5 ATS (45.4%) in the next game over the last 3-1/2 seasons.
System Match: FADE NEW ORLEANS (-3.5 vs LAL)

Similarly, NBA teams that have made 20 or more 3PT field goals in a game have struggled the next time out, going just 237-229 SU and 210-243-11 ATS (46.4%) the next game over the last 3-1/2 seasons.
System Match: FADE NEW ORLEANS (-3.5 vs LAL)

Unusual defensive performances
Alternatively to #13 above, NBA teams that have allowed 20 or more 3PT field goals in a game have rebound well when favored the next time out, going 146-54 SU and 113-85-2 ATS (57.1%) over the last 3-1/2 seasons.
System Match: PLAY GOLDEN STATE (-8 vs UTA)

NBA Streak Systems

The following handicapping information details nine NBA betting trend systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.

NBA Streak Betting System #3:
Teams having won their last four games or more have been a risky bet when playing as double-digit home favorites, going 88-16 SU but 45-57-3 ATS (44.1%) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Matches: FADE NEW YORK (-15 vs. CHI), FADE PHILADELPHIA (-15.5 vs. BKN), FADE OKLAHOMA CITY (-19 vs. DAL)

NBA Streak Betting System #6:
Teams having lost their last four games or more have been a solid wager when they are a capable offensive team, as those scoring 114 PPG or more are on a 62-72 SU and 74-58-3 ATS (56.1%) surge.
System Matches: PLAY ATLANTA (+14 at IND)

NBA Streak Betting System #8:
Teams reaching winning or losing streaks of seven games or more become play against teams in general, going 189-235 ATS (44.6%) in the next outing since 2020, and in particular, teams on losing streaks of seven games or more have been terrible in road games, going 26-109 SU and 58-74-3 ATS (43.9%).
System Matches: FADE PHILADELPHIA (-15.5 vs BKN)

Today’s NBA Strength Ratings

The following NBA betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis).

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. DALLAS +19 (+6.8), 2. ATLANTA +14 (+2.9), 3. CHICAGO +15 (+2.8)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. BOSTON -9.5 (+1.8), 2. CLEVELAND -13.5 (+1.4), 3. GOLDEN STATE -8 (+1.3)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. DALLAS +19 (+3.3), 2. MEMPHIS +13 (+2.8), 3. ATLANTA +14 (+2.5)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. BOSTON -9.5 (+5.5), 2. ORLANDO -5 (+3.3), 3. CLEVELAND -13.5 (+1.5)

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. CHA-CLE OVER 209 (+5.9), 2. LAL-NOP OVER 230 (+2.8), 3. CHI-NYK OVER 216.5 (+0.6)

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MIL-ORL UNDER 214.5 (-4.4), 2. DEN-MEM UNDER 218 (-3.5), 3. WSH-BOS UNDER 227.5 (-2.9)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. DALLAS +19 (+6.0), 2. CHICAGO +15 (+2.3), 3. LA CLIPPERS +2.5 (+1.9)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. CLEVELAND -13.5 (+3.8), 2. BOSTON -9.5 (+2.5), 3. MINNESOTA -2 (+1.3)

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. CHA-CLE OVER 209 (+11.3), 2. DET-SAS OVER 215 (+5.8), 3. POR-SAC OVER 213.5 (+4.0)

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. DEN-MEM UNDER 218 (-5.1), 2. MIL-ORL UNDER 214.5 (-5.0), 3. UTA-GSW UNDER 223 (-2.1)

Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games:

(513) ATLANTA at (514) INDIANA
* INDIANA is on a 5-1 ATS surge versus Atlanta
System Match: PLAY INDIANA ATS

(501) BROOKLYN at (502) PHILADELPHIA
* BROOKLYN has won the last two ATS versus Philadelphia after seven straight losses
System Match: CONSIDER PLAYING BROOKLYN ATS

(505) CHARLOTTE at (506) CLEVELAND
* CHARLOTTE is 6-2-1 ATS in the last nine at Cleveland
System Match: PLAY CHARLOTTE ATS

(507) CHICAGO at (508) NEW YORK
* NEW YORK is 6-2 ATS in its last eight hosting Chicago
System Match: PLAY NEW YORK ATS

(519) DALLAS at (520) OKLAHOMA CITY
* The last seven games of DAL-OKC h2h series went Over the total
System Match: PLAY OVER the total

(523) DENVER at (524) MEMPHIS
* Home teams are on a 12-2 ATS run in the DEN-MEM series
System Match: PLAY MEMPHIS ATS

(525) DETROIT at (526) SAN ANTONIO
* SAN ANTONIO has won the last five ATS hosting Detroit
System Match: PLAY SAN ANTONIO ATS

(515) HOUSTON at (516) LA CLIPPERS
* Under the total is 6-2 in the last eight of the HOU-LAC series
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total

(529) LA LAKERS at (530) NEW ORLEANS
* The last three games of the LAL-NOP series in New Orleans went Over the total
System Match: PLAY OVER the total

(511) MILWAUKEE at (512) ORLANDO
* Under the total is 5-2 in the last seven of the MIL-ORL series at Orlando
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total

(521) PHOENIX at (522) MINNESOTA
* PHOENIX has won its last eight ATS vs. Minnesota
System Match: PLAY PHOENIX ATS

(527) PORTLAND at (528) SACRAMENTO
* Over the total is 12-5 in the POR-SAC series since 2019
System Match: PLAY OVER the total

(503) TORONTO at (504) MIAMI
* TORONTO has won its last three ATS at Miami
System Match: PLAY TORONTO ATS

(517) UTAH at (518) GOLDEN STATE
* GOLDEN STATE is 9-2-1 ATS vs. Utah since 2021
System Match: PLAY GOLDEN STATE ATS

(509) WASHINGTON at (510) BOSTON
* The last five games of the WAS-BOS series went Over the total
System Match: PLAY OVER the total

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