The following is a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games on Sunday, December 17, 2023. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.
Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the Betting Splits pages. These pages we have built utilize the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, moneylines, and totals. In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data developed in the 2022-23 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 12:00 p.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems until tip-off for best usage.
DK NBA Betting Splits system #1: When 63% or more of the handle was on the HOME side of an ATS wager, this supermajority group was 115-88 ATS (56.6%) last season. In other words, if you see nearly 2/3 of the handle backing a host in an NBA game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BOSTON, MILWAUKEE, PHOENIX
DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: The number from system #1 is a little higher for road wagers. When 65% or more of the handle was on the road side of an ATS wager, this supermajority group was 95-69 ATS (57.9%) last season. Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. This group was pretty sharp last season.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NEW ORLEANS, GOLDEN STATE
At this point, unlike the football studies I conducted, it’s safe to assume that being part of the majority handle of DraftKings bettors on ATS wagers is a relatively sound strategy.
The following two systems show some successes that majority groups at DraftKings enjoyed when looking at bet volume:
DK NBA Betting Splits system #5: We saw earlier that the “super” majority benchmark for handle success on ATS was wagers at 63%. It’s a touch higher when analyzing the number of bets. When 69% or more of the number of bets was on the home side of an ATS wager, this supermajority group was 81-55 ATS (59.6%) last season, leaps and bounds above the overall success of all majorities.
System Matches (PLAY): MILWAUKEE
DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA nonconference games (East versus West) of 2023, DK majority number of bets groups were highly successful, as they went 134-110 ATS (54.9%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed a 51.4% success rate, the were 3.5% improved on these more rare contests.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MILWAUKEE, PHOENIX
The overall numbers shown earlier detailed that majority bettors took heavy losses on moneyline wagering last season. Here are some more detailed specifics:
DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: When the majority handle was on double-digit favorites in a 2023 NBA game, this majority group was 92-22 outright but lost -55.45 units, an R.O.I. of -48.6%. This is a significant loss rate and shows how losing just over one of every five games can still be damaging.
System Matches (FADE): PHOENIX ML
This last system involves totals.
DK NBA Betting Splits system #14: In NBA games with extremely high totals last season, or those more than 242, majority handle bettors were 18-7 (72%).
System Matches (PLAY OVER): WSH-PHX
Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping
The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based upon their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.
We will be tracking 50 top scheduling situations all season long!
* Host teams playing on a H2H b2b were 30-26 SU & 30-25-1 ATS (54.5%) hosting teams playing a One Day Rest game last season.
12/17: MILWAUKEE vs. Houston
System Match: PLAY MILWAUKEE (-7 vs HOU)
* Under the total was 69-39 (63.9%) over the last two seasons when the road team was on One Day Rest and the host was playing a 3rd Home in 4 Days game.
12/17: Under the total in BOSTON-ORLANDO
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 228.5)
* Under the total was 31-24 (56.4%) last season when the home team was on H2H b2b and the road team was playing a One Day Rest game.
12/17: UNDER the total in HOUSTON-MILWAUKEE
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 230)
* Under the total is 13-7 (63.2%) over the last two seasons when the home team was on a H2H b2b and the road team was playing a H2A b2b game.
12/17: UNDER the total in PORTLAND-GOLDEN STATE
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 232.5)
Top Team-Specific Scheduling Situation Trends
The following are some of the top team-specific trends that have developed in the NBA over the last few seasons when considering scheduling situations. Like the league-wide systems introduced earlier, naturally, there are reasons that certain teams perform at varying levels based upon their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.
* PHOENIX is 34-16 Over the total at home in the 4th in 6 Days game scenario over the last three seasons
12/17: OVER the total in WASHINGTON-PHOENIX
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 246)
NBA Team Strength Systems
The following handicapping information details 5 different betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last three NBA seasons.
NBA Team Strength Betting System #1:
In games between two teams with 60%+ winning percentages, home teams favored in the -4.5 to -9.5 range are on a 108-29 SU & 90-47 ATS (65.7%) run.
System Matches: PLAY BOSTON (-9 vs ORL)
NBA Team Strength Betting System #4:
Double-digit NBA favorites in non-conference games have gone 91-22 SU but just 44-68-1 ATS (39.3%) over the last two seasons.
System Matches: FADE PHOENIX (-13 vs WSH)
NBA Team Strength Betting System #5:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last three seasons, dependent upon what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 66-55 (54.5%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 115-86 (57.2%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 165-111 (59.8%).
System Matches: PLAY OVER in WSH-PHX (o/u at 246)
NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems
These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last three seasons unless noted.
BIG TIME OFFENSIVE PERFORMANCES
