Injuries continue to be a major factor in the NFL, but we do have some notable names returning this week, including DeAndre Hopkins and Mac Jones. Players who have had extended absences can sometimes have difficulty getting back to game speed and fully assimilating back into the offense, so that is something you want to account for in your handicapping.
Also, keep in mind the impact that defensive injuries can have on player matchups. A star defensive back being out means that everybody else has to shift around, which may create better opportunities for a WR2, WR3 or even a tight end. The injury report is always going to help when trying to find edges in this market.
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Here are two player props to consider for Week 7 (odds are from DraftKings):
Kenneth Walker III Over 66.5 Rushing Yards (-125)
This prop total is on the rise and may continue to go up (shop around!), but how can you not like this matchup for Walker? First of all, the Seahawks have really done well on the offensive line this season, as their additions and draftees seem to be sizable upgrades over what was previously there. The Seahawks are racking up 6.2 yards per play and 5.3 yards per carry, which ranks fourth in the NFL.
The Chargers have been an effective defense against the pass at times, but they’ve been anything but effective against the run. LAC ranks last in yards per carry allowed at 5.6, 22nd in Rush Defense DVOA and 28th in Rush EPA (expected points added) against. Walker fell just shy of the century mark as the featured back last week with 97 yards on 21 carries. I’d expect him to get more than 69% of the snap share here, especially when running the ball looks like a very effective strategy. You may even want to look for an Alt Rush Yards prop as those populate on Sunday.
Davante Adams Over 78.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
The Raiders and Texans are both off of byes, but you can bet that Josh McDaniels and Mick Lombardi spent a lot of their time figuring out how to get Adams the ball more often. When he’s gotten the ball, Adams has done special things, racking up 414 receiving yards on just 29 catches. The problem is he’s been targeted 54 times, so there have been some errant passes in his direction.
Despite the low 54% Catch%, Adams is still averaging nearly 83 receiving yards per game, about four yards above this week’s prop total. With the Raiders up against a Texans pass defense that ranks 28th in yards per reception allowed with 12.3, Adams should be able to bust free for some big gainers. Houston’s pass defense grades pretty average having faced Matt Ryan, Russell Wilson, Justin Fields, Justin Herbert and Trevor Lawrence. Derek Carr should be able to move the ball through the air against a defense whose numbers are skewed by that Fields game when the Bears threw for 82 yards.
Kenny Pickett Over 1.5 Pass TDs (%plussign% 150)
The Steelers-Dolphins game looks like it could be a shootout with a total of 51. Kenny Pickett threw his first career touchdown pass last week but only played 37 snaps before leaving with a concussion. After practicing in full on Wednesday and Thursday, he looks good to go for Sunday night. Pickett threw 52 times the week prior in a loss to Buffalo, which had a lot to do with the score, but he also threw on about 50% of his offensive plays last week.
Pickett has weapons with Diontae Johnson, George Pickens, Pat Freiermuth, Chase Claypool and Najee Harris. He should have his full complement of skill guys after Freiermuth practiced in full this week. That’s a lot of options to throw to against a Dolphins defense that only has one interception and has allowed opponents to complete nearly 68% of their passes and 10 passing touchdowns. Miami is 31st in Pass Defense DVOA and 29th in Dropback EPA. This is a really bad pass defense and Pickett may have to throw a lot to keep pace with Miami’s offense.
