NHL Atlantic Division Previews
The reigning Stanley Cup champion Panthers stand out as the favorites (+235) in what should be an improved division. The Bruins (+500) do have some roster turnover to navigate, hence the 5/1 price to win the division after finishing just one point behind the Panthers, who won four straight to end the regular season.
The Maple Leafs (+275) suffered another disappointing playoff exit in the first round, but hopes are high with new head coach Craig Berube, who won the Stanley Cup with the Blues in 2019 after taking over about 20 games into the season.
With the Lightning (+550) coming off of a bad year by their insane standards with 98 points, the Senators (+1200) on a major upswing as a young team, and a much improved Red Wings (+1200) club, it’ll be a fight to the finish in this division in terms of the final guaranteed postseason spot and the Wild Card berths. Hey, even the Sabres (+1400) might get in the mix.
This originally appeared in our 2024-25 NHL Betting Guide released on Sept. 24.
Boston Bruins
Stanley Cup: +1800
Division: +500
Points: 99.5 (-120/-110)
Playoffs: Yes -240; No +195
The Bruins lost to the eventual Cup champion Panthers in the second round of the Eastern Conference Playoffs last season. Goaltending carried Boston throughout the season, as their expected goals for and expected goals against at 5-v-5 were completely even per Natural Stat Trick at 166.65. However, Boston outscored opponents 174-135 during that game state and they had the fourth-highest high-danger save percentage.
We’ll see if their goaltending fortunes change, as the superstar tandem of Jeremy Swayman and Linus Ullmark was split up with Ullmark sent to division rival Ottawa. Joonas Korpisalo now backs up Swayman. Swayman was fifth in GSAA in all situations at 16.43, with Ullmark 11th at 13.8 and Korpisalo 97th out of 98 goalies.
So, it’ll be interesting to see if Swayman can be a 55+ game starter for Boston and if he can be as effective in that role as he was in the timeshare. The Bruins also enter the season with health questions for veteran pest Brad Marchand, who was second on the team with 67 points and looked like the guy from the Operation! board game in the offseason with three surgeries.
Leading scorer David Pastrnak will have to develop some chemistry with new center Elias Lindholm. Lindholm’s addition could spark a power play that finished 14th in efficiency last season, though he only had 12 power play points and just 44 points total for the Flames and Canucks last season.
Second-year player Matthew Poitras had 15 points in 33 games in his rookie season after being a 2022 second-round pick. Secondary scoring is a big deal for the Bruins, who got 110 points from Pastrnak, but only two other players had at least 60 points and only three other players had at least 20 goals.
Defenseman Charlie McAvoy was the other player at that position with more than 30 points and he only had one power play goal. Generating more offense from the back end will be another focal point for the Bruins if they want to reach this season’s expectations.
Buffalo Sabres
Stanley Cup: +5000
Division: +1400
Points: 88.5 (-120/-110)
Playoffs: Yes +170; No -210
The Sabres are a team with a wide range of outcomes. They spent the offseason prioritizing speed and may lack in the toughness department, but they’re going to try to play a fast, finesse game this upcoming season. That may put a little bit of pressure on top defensemen Rasmus Dahlin, Bowen Byram, and Owen Power, but that is the strength of this team.
Buffalo will need leaps from a lot of young players and better health from Tage Thompson, who had 29 goals in 71 games, but couldn’t repeat the 47 tucks he had in 78 games in 2022-23 or the 38 tallies in 78 games in 2021-22. The growth of secondary scorers like Zach Benson and Dylan Cozens may be what ultimately sets the ceiling for the season. Cozens, 23, and Benson, 19, along with Jack Quinn, 22, were all first-round picks and they need to play up to their potential.
Speaking of playing up to potential, Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen and Devon Levi need to do just that. By GSAA, UPL was 16th among netminders in all situations, but Levi was 61st. Levi’s stats were underwhelming with a 3.10 GAA and an .899 SV%, but the Sabres hung him out to dry a lot. UPL had a 2.57 GAA and a .910 SV% and another year of maturity from the skaters in front of him can only help.
The Sabres are a tough team to gauge because they’re likely to be very exciting and interesting, but that doesn’t always translate to winning. That said, mild improvements on the power play will be enough to help, as they finished 29th in PP%. They were also fortunate to be +15 in 5-v-5 scoring, while their expected goal differential was -11.
Buffalo gave up way too many high-danger chances, but they should play a tighter defensive game thanks to a reunion with former bench boss Lindy Ruff, who spent 16 years from 1997-2013 as the head coach.
Detroit Red Wings
Stanley Cup: +4000
Division: +1200
Points: 90.5 (-105/-125)
Playoffs: Yes +130; No -160
A mix of new and old might be the cure that the Red Wings need to end their eight-season playoff drought. You have to go back to the 2015-16 season to find the last time that Detroit made the postseason and back to 2012-13 to find the last time they won a playoff series. For such a storied franchise, this kind of drought borders on unacceptable. However, the team just had its first .500 or better season since 2015-16 and may be on an upswing.
Detroit got terrible goaltending across the board last season. Every netminder had a GAA over 3.00 and the team had a 3.33 GAA overall. Detroit allowed the sixth-most 5-v-5 goals and finished -12 in that department, though it could have been worse, as they were outshot by nearly 300 shots on goal in that game state and had the fewest high-danger scoring chances.
To help generate more offense, the Red Wings landed a big free agent fish in Vladimir Tarasenko. The 32-year-old Tarasenko had 55 points in 76 games last season for the Senators and Panthers, as he had 14 points in 19 games after being acquired by Florida. With core forwards Lucas Raymond, Dylan Larkin, and a full season of Patrick Kane, this could be a much more dangerous group up front.
This was a top-10 power play unit, but the Red Wings were below 80% on the penalty kill. In all situations, Alex Lyon, Michael Hutchinson (1 game), and James Reimer all graded just slightly above average in GSAA, but nobody had better than a 0.91 mark. Newcomer Cam Talbot did, as he was 10th in all situations at 13.95. He could be a huge upgrade in the blue paint for a team that added veteran depth all over the lineup.
This does look like an upgraded Red Wings roster overall with a good mix of youthful exuberance and veteran knowhow.
Florida Panthers
Stanley Cup: +1000
Division: +235
Points: 102.5 (-115/-115)
Playoffs: Yes -500; No +370
The Panthers are a 10/1 shot to run it back after the first Stanley Cup championship in franchise history. This was an excellent team in every facet, as they were among the league’s best at 5-v-5, were the league’s best defensive team at 5-v-5, and have a deep roster with an outstanding head coach with Paul Maurice. Maurice finally got over the hump and his graciousness and impressive comments in postgame interviews and press conferences really endeared him to hockey fans everywhere.
The elephant in the room is the championship hangover, which impacts each team differently. The Panthers played 82 regular season games and 24 more playoff games, including a decisive Game 7 in the Finals after blowing a 3-0 lead. That is a lot of hockey to play and the offseason really only goes from mid-to-late June to September, so there isn’t a lot of time to rest ailments and get the body back in shape.
As is often the case after winning a title, players get paid in the free agent markets for what they were able to accomplish. Brandon Montour and Oliver Ekman-Larsson are among the departures on the blue line and Vladimir Tarasenko, Nick Cousins, and Kyle Okposo are among the losses at forward.
But, the core remains intact, with Aleksandr Barkow, Sam Reinhart, and Matthew Tkachuk all still calling Sunrise home. Aaron Ekblad is an impending free agent, so the Panthers’ brass will have to make a decision there, but Sergei Bobrovsky was third in GSAA in all situations and he’s back for another run at it. Anthony Stolarz is gone, but Chris Driedger and Spencer Knight are capable backups.
Florida’s suffocating defensive system that limits high-danger chances and scoring opportunities at 5-v-5 leaves this team a very high floor and an elite core creates a high ceiling. They should be very, very good again this season.
Montreal Canadiens
Stanley Cup: +12000
Division: +7500
Points: 76.5 (-120/-110)
Playoffs: Yes +750; No -1400
The Canadiens finished 15th in points out of 16 Eastern Conference teams. Bright spots were few and far between. Juraj Slafkovsky, the first overall pick in the 2022 NHL Draft, had a 20-goal season and added 30 assists, but he, like so many forwards, was a defensive liability. Cole Caufield had a nice season with career-highs in games played, goals, and assists, though he did have 26 goals in 46 games in the 2022-23 season and had 28 in a full 82-game campaign last year.
To Montreal’s credit, they somehow only finished -4 in 5-v-5 goal differential, despite getting badly outshot and out-chanced in those even-strength situations. Only San Jose and Chicago had a worse percentage discrepancy between scoring chances for and against. And, the craziest part is that the Canadiens didn’t really get good goaltending from anybody, though 25-year-old Cayden Primeau was serviceable in his 23 games played.
Even though this was a bad team, the Canadiens tied with the Islanders for the most overtime losses with 16, so things could have swung a little bit differently. The return of Kirby Dach from season-ending knee surgery and the acquisition of Patrik Laine from the Blue Jackets should add a little bit more offensive punch.
Primeau and Sam Montembault are still the tendy tandem and they finished 27th and 51st, respectively, in GSAA in all situations. Primeau has spent parts of five seasons with the Habs and most of those seasons with Laval in the AHL. This is a potential make-or-break year for him with nobody standing in the way for playing time. Montembault is a below average goaltender, so Primeau will get his chance to shine.
It would help both Primeau and the team as a whole to improve on special teams. Montreal was 27th in PP% and 24th in PK%. Something for fourth-year head coach Martin St. Louis to prioritize.
Ottawa Senators
Stanley Cup: +4000
Division: +1200
Points: 90.5 (-120/-110)
Playoffs: Yes +125; No -155
All eyes will be on the Senators this season. A big upgrade in net with Linus Ullmark and a young core comprised of Tim Stutzle and Brady Tkachuk are important pieces to build around. We’re still waiting for some guys to break out, but that’s why the front office surrounded them with veterans like Claude Giroux, David Perron, and recent Stanley Cup champ Nick Cousins.
Ullmark’s presence will help in a big way for a team that allowed the fourth-most 5-v-5 goals last season. Ullmark was 11th in GSAA in all situations last season. Of course some of that had to do with Boston’s structure and a much more accomplished and established roster, but the Senators got very little from Anton Forsberg and even less from Joonas Korpisalo, who was the second-worst goalie by GSAA out of 98 that played last season. Forsberg was 86th.
Defensive depth remains a question and the Sens may opt to let 19-year-old first-round pick Carter Yakemchuk stick around because they simply don’t have enough upside back there. Jakob Chychrun was a team-worst -30 and he was sent off to Washington. Travis Hamonic only played 48 games, but was -10 and had six points. The veterans on this defense are subpar at best.
So, it’ll fall on the shoulders of guys like Jake Sanderson, who was taken fifth overall in the 2020 NHL Draft, and youngster Tyler Kleven, who played just nine NHL games last season to maintain a year on his contract. If Thomas Chabot can somehow stay healthy, the defense looks a little bit better, but this was the 29th-ranked penalty kill so big strides are needed.
Ullmark ups the ceiling for this team, but somebody needs to emerge on defense for the Senators to reach what are some lofty goals. They’ve surpassed 90.5 points just once since the 2014-15 season. New head coach Travis Green will try to get them there.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Stanley Cup: +2500
Division: +550
Points: 98.5 (-115/-115)
Playoffs: Yes -230; No +185
Since Tampa Bay’s Eastern Conference reign of terror ended with a loss to the Avalanche in the 2022 Stanley Cup Finals, they’ve had two first-round exits. This is one of the best-run organizations in the NHL (and also one of the best at manipulating the salary cap), but the financial constraints of the league make it hard to keep everybody together and some roster turnover has taken a toll on the Lightning over the last two seasons.
Nikita Kucherov had 144 points to lead the league and finished 54 points clear of any of his teammates. He assisted on 100 of Tampa’s 291 goals and scored 44 of them. The Bolts had three 40-goal scorers, with Kucherov, Brayden Point, and Steven Stamkos, who is now with Nashville.
Tampa has something of a new look up front with Jake Guentzel as the headliner. But, this team needs more than that to get back to where they were just a few short years ago. The Lightning allowed 190 goals at 5-v-5 and finished -19 in that department. The silver lining is that they had more scoring chances and more high-danger chances than their opponents in that game state.
So what happened? Andrei Vasilevskiy happened. Vasy was bad by league standards and positively awful by his own standards. He finished 69th with a -5.21 GSAA last season in all situations. His 2.90 GAA and .900 SV% were easily career-worsts. Here’s what bettors need to remember – Vasilevskiy was hurt in the preseason and didn’t make his debut until November 24. He wasn’t able to prepare for the season as he usually does and maybe rushed a bit to get back.
As bad as Vasy was, Jonas Johansson was decidedly worse, so that didn’t help matters. A bounce back season from the 30-year-old and continued contributions from the secondary scorers should help the Bolts make the postseason again. What they do when they get there is up for debate, but three players – Brandon Hagel, Nicholas Paul, and Anthony Cirelli – had 20-goal seasons, so replacing Stamkos’s offense won’t be an issue.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Stanley Cup: +1300
Division: +230
Points: 102.5 (-115/-115)
Playoffs: Yes -475; No +350
Sheldon Keefe couldn’t get it done. Mike Babcock couldn’t get it done. Maybe Craig Berube can.
After another excellent regular season, Toronto’s third straight with at least 100 points and fifth in a row for a full 82-game season, the Maple Leafs bowed out of the playoffs early. In their last eight playoff appearances, the Leafs have won one playoff round. They’ve won one playoff round since 2004 and missed the playoffs for a stretch of 11 of 12 seasons from 2004-17. Keefe’s Leafs were 212-97-40 in the regular season and 16-21 in the playoffs.
The switch to Berube is only one of the noteworthy developments for this season. Toronto might also have a goaltender now in Anthony Stolarz. Perhaps Joseph Woll starts at first after posting a 2.94 GAA and a .907 SV%, but Stolarz was terrific in a part-time role for the Panthers last season, going 16-7-2 with a 2.03 GAA and a .925 SV% in 27 games. He was good as a part-time starter for the Ducks during the 2021-22 season as well.
Auston Matthews led the league in goals with 69. Michael Nylander had a 40-goal season. Toronto had the most 5-v-5 goals scored in the league with 200. They were +32 in 5-v-5 goal differential. They were second in high-danger scoring chances. There were so many things to like about this team, but they fell short under the bright lights and have never quite figured out the goaltender position.
If it’s Stolarz, Woll, or NHL vets Matt Murray and Martin Jones looking to show that they still have some chops, somebody has to step up. Mitch Marner and John Tavares are still there and Matthew Knies is an exciting young player. The defense is still anchored by Morgan Rielly. But the heavily-padded guy in the crease is the most important player for the Leafs again, regardless of who it is.
