EPL Best Bets
Brentford vs. Chelsea
Saturday, 10:00 a.m. ET
My first EPL best bet takes us to Brentford, where Chelsea makes the short trip across London physically and emotionally drained. Last Sunday’s defeat in the Carabao Cup final to Liverpool’s kids will still be hurting them in a game they should have won, regardless of the narrative being spun by Blues fans.
A team full of World Cup winners and players used to the big stage were turned over by teenagers not long out of the Academy. There’s no question that would have sapped the morale of a squad already with brittle confidence.
Mauricio Pochettino was devastated by the loss, knowing winning a trophy would take some of the pressure mounting on him. Fair play for galvanizing the team and getting a vital win against Leeds in the FA Cup on Wednesday.
I think that only papers over the cracks with an understrength Leeds side running Chelsea all the way to the final whistle of a five-goal thriller. This wildly inconsistent Chelsea side does not convince me, and I am happy to take them on here with Brentford.
In the reverse fixture, the Bees went to Stamford Bridge and came away with a 2-0 win. That was a side without their talisman and last season’s top scorer, Ivan Toney, who is available for this clash.
Christopher Nkunku has picked up another injury in a season ravaged by them, with the expectation to deliver again falling on Cole Palmer’s shoulders. He has performed well but is a shining light on a really poor team. How many minutes would he get at Manchester City, Liverpool or Arsenal? Not many is the answer, and we may have gotten a little carried away with him a bit too early.
I think that Chelsea have been massively overrated for this match. Especially after coming through two draining cup ties in the space of a few days.
Look, Brentford aren’t in great form, having lost the last three, and they were disappointing against West Ham on Monday night, where they were soundly beaten. But they’ve had a tough run of games and, in Toney, have the best attacking option on the pitch.
The Bees have generally lost to the elite in the league, which doesn’t include Chelsea anymore, in my opinion. Pochettino desperately wants a trophy in his first season, so all the focus now goes on the FA Cup, where they have a favorable draw at home to Championship opposition.
Brentford have built an exceptional record in London derbies since promotion to the Premier League. They are unbeaten in their last four meetings, with the Blues only conceding once and keeping a clean sheet in the last three.
As a result, I am taking Brentford on the +0.25 Asian Handicap for one of my EPL best bets, meaning we get half a stake win if this ends in a draw and, of course, a full win should the home side come out on top.
EPL Best Bet: Brentford +0.25 Asian Handicap at -110.
Luton vs. Aston Villa
Saturday, 12:30 p.m. ET
Luton have been a breath of fresh air in the Premier League this season. They have shocked a lot of people over the course of the campaign, but I think now is the time they hit reality with a bump and are on my fade list for the foreseeable future.
Rob Edwards has been brilliant with his team, leaving nothing out on the pitch with their high levels of effort and work rate. But they have the smallest squad in the Premier League and have had a whole host of narrow defeats in high-intensity matches. All of which has left them leg-weary, as we saw in Tuesday night’s 6-2 loss at home to Manchester City.
Some of the defending was shocking, and I put that down to the physical and mental tiredness of a squad that looks out on their feet. The same thing happened when they ran out of gas in the second half against a much-weakened Liverpool side a couple of weeks ago.
The Hatters have now lost their last four and conceded 15 goals. They are without a win in five and have shipped 19 goals across those games. No team can do that and survive in this league.
They host an Aston Villa side who are on fire. They have bounced back from successive defeats to record two wins and score six goals.
Ollie Watkins is back on top form, scoring three times across those two games, including both goals in their last road trip. He should be set for another haul in this game, which promises to be entertaining, end-to-end, and full of goals.
This comes down to who has that extra touch of class, and that is Villa all day long. Unai Emery’s side are way above the levels Luton can reach at both ends of the pitch. I love the away side here on the -0.75 Asian Handicap at -112. This means Villa need to win by two goals for a full win on the bet, but victory by a single goal gives us a half-stake win.
I expect the Villains to score a few here, and that will put them well out of sight of the hosts. I was even tempted to have two plays here and put Watkins up to score at plus money, and I wouldn’t put anyone off that move.
He is only three goals behind Haaland in the race for the Golden Boot and is desperate to make the England squad for this summer’s European Championships. The Norwegian smashed five goals past this defense in midweek, and I expect Watkins to grab at least one.
But I will settle for his goals firing his team to a convincing win and landing my official pick.
EPL Best Bet: Aston Villa -0.75 Asian Handicap -112
Manchester City vs Manchester United
Sunday, 10:30 a.m. ET
It’s that time of the year. Manchester City hit the after-burners and go on an unbelievable run.
But this is a Manchester derby, and a lot of standard stats essentially go out of the window when these two collide. There is concern about United’s leaky defense and also their injury list, which includes their in-form striker Rasmus Højlund. But that makes me like this bet even more.
That bet is for under 3.5 goals at -120. I must play it, and no doubt swim against the tide of most other tipsters and social media experts. All are basing their opinion on the math and statistics of the season so far.
When news broke of Højlund’s injury last week, the price moved massively on Manchester United from around -200 to -140. When you take him out of the side, as he will be again on Sunday, where will the Red Devils get the goals from?
So, when you take that one team can’t contribute to the goals total here, you need City to score four for this bet to lose. This market has been based on the current crazy high average of goals per game in the EPL and also that Pep’s men come into this one on the back of a goal blitz in the FA Cup on Tuesday.
But look at their league form. Their last four games have all cashed for Under 3.5 goals bettors as they’ve gone about winning games ugly. The difference between Under 2.5 and Under 3.5 is huge.
The last three meetings between these two have seen exactly three goals. A win for this bet is a loss on the Under 2.5 line. The fact we can get -120 on this line makes it a great bet.
To add more weight, the last five Manchester United games across all competitions have seen Under 3.5 goals cash. While the average in City’s home league games is just 3.23 per game, they have been more prolific in other competitions.
Looking back as far as 2020 and the last 11 editions of this derby, nine have cashed on Under 3.5 goals. Ultimately, this is a derby match where the Reds will want to stop their city rivals from picking up points towards another title. In a similar way as they did when visiting Liverpool in December and came away with a 0-0 draw.
EPL Best Bet: Under 3.5 goals at -120.
