Euro 2024 Soccer Best Bets – Semifinals:
Let’s take a look at my Euro 2024 best bets for the semifinal round.
Spain vs. France
Tuesday, 3:00 p.m. ET
Spain broke the hearts of a nation in the quarterfinals of Euro 2024 as substitute Mikel Merino headed past Manuel Neuer with just 90 seconds of extra time remaining to knock out the hosts Germany. As a result, ahead of the semifinals, the Spanish are now the new favorites at +200 to lift the trophy.
That is justified. They are the only side to have won all five of their fixtures, albeit needing that extra 30 minutes against the Germans. Luis de la Fuente’s side have thrilled going forward, scoring a tournament-high 11 goals. Most importantly, they have been rock solid on defense, conceding just twice—one of those being a goal.
They meet a France side that have disappointed many with their turgid performances at this European Championship and needed a penalty shootout to scrape past Portugal in the last eight. However, soccer is never that simple, especially when you are deep into an international tournament.
Didier Deschamps comes in for criticism, given he has a star-studded squad at his disposal. Claims are he is too cautious and doesn’t let his attacking players express themselves freely. What is certain is that he knows how to get the job done. If his side wins here, he will have made a fourth major final in six attempts, all based on a water-tight defense.
It is just as well given Les Bleus continue to struggle going forward. Other than Kylian Mbappé’s penalty against Poland, they have failed to score with any of their other 86 shots in the tournament, beating both Austria and Belgium 1-0 via own goals.
They can take great comfort in their elite defense. Keeper Mike Maignan is yet to be beaten from open play, having only conceded a twice-taken penalty, and William Saliba has shown why many regard him as one of the best defenders, if not the best, in the world.
Only four goals have been scored in France’s five Euro 2024 matches, two penalties and two own goals. As Mbappé continues to struggle with his broken nose, the focus will once again be on not conceding, as it was against the dangerous Portuguese.
That game ended 0-0 and that forms part of a two-pronged attack for me in this fixture. A bet that comes in at a juicy +550, and I am supplementing that with under 2 Asian Total at -110, which cashes with either zero or one goal, gives a refund if there are two goals, and only loses if there are three or more.
Euro 2024 Best Bet #1: Spain vs. France – Under 2.00 Asian Total at -110.
Euro 2024 Best Bet #2: Spain vs. France – 0-0 Correct Score at +550.
Netherlands vs. England
Wednesday, 3:00 p.m. ET
Here we go again. It’s the semifinal stage of Euro 2024, and I am still writing about England, who, despite fierce criticism, are one game away from a second consecutive European Championship final.
As I have previously mentioned, there is no denying my Three Lions have been dreadful. A side containing the Bundesliga top goalscorer supplemented by La Liga and Premier League players of the year obviously aren’t going to showcase their undeniable potential, but they continue to find a way to get the job done.
The latest making the host of penalty shoot traumas I have suffered in yesteryear a distant memory—all after falling behind on 75 minutes against Switzerland before equalizing almost immediately with their first shot on target. Those five perfect penalties against the Swiss mean Gareth Southgate has now guided his team to the semifinals in a major tournament for the third time in four attempts.
There was certainly improvement in that quarterfinal with a change of system giving the side more balance. They played higher up the pitch and especially in the first half with more intensity. It’s not perfect, but it could be enough.
I can’t pull the trigger on England winning this in 90 minutes – or even after extra-time, but I am taking them to make it to the final in Berlin on July 14th. After all, they play a Netherlands side here that finished third in their group behind Austria and a hugely disappointing France.
Yes, Ronald Koeman’s side has threats, but their best player has been Cody Gakpo, who has struggled to nail down a starting place at Liverpool. Their game-changer is Championship side Burnley’s Wout Weghorst a much-ridiculed figure when he made a half-season loan switch to Manchester United, where he scored the grand total of zero goals in 17 Premier League outings.
In short, there is little to fear. Especially if this does go all the way with the ice-cool display England’s penalty takers put on a few days ago.
I am adding Under 2.5 goals in a same-game parlay to add some real juice to this bet. The goals have dried up in the tournament, as you would expect as we get deeper into the competition, the jeopardy increases and the “must not lose” mentality creeps in.
The opening round of 12 fixtures saw 34 goals at 2.83 per game, an average which had dropped to 2.25 by the end of the group stage; that number was replicated in the Round of 16 matches. The quarterfinals saw just seven goals in normal time, with three of the four matches ending all square.
England drew 1-1 in the Euro 2020 semi-final before winning in extra-time – ironically from a saved Harry Kane penalty with the skipper bundling in the rebound. The other semi saw Spain and Italy also tie 1-1. Since 1992, ten of the 16 European Championship semi-finals have cashed for Under 2.5 goals bettors.
I will snatch your hand off if you are offering me another average performance ending in a 1-0 win and so will Gareth Southgate. Once again, I will be roaring that outcome on from the stands in Dortmund.
Euro 2024 Best Bet: England to qualify and Under 2.50 goals at +350.
