WNBA Picks
Because the Liberty/Wings game was postponed due to mechanical issues with the Liberty team plane, we had just one WNBA game last night, and the Washington Mystics seemingly forgot to show up, losing by nearly 20 at home to the Portland Fire. Tonight, we’ve got three games, featuring the Seattle Storm visiting the Indiana Fever, the LA Sparks visiting the Chicago Sky, and the Toronto Tempo hosting the Atlanta Dream. Here are the TSI projections for Friday.
Indiana Fever (-8.5) vs Seattle Storm, O/U 175.5
Indiana has been playing almost seven points better than its season average over the last three games, and they are averaging 96 points per game dating back to mid-June. Seattle has been about a point worse than its average over the last three games, though they’ve managed to pick up some good wins in the last month against New York, Atlanta, and at LA. TSI projects Indiana -10 with a total of 174 in this game, and I think the home/road splits tell the story here; Indiana is 1.5 points better at home than on the road, but Seattle is nine points worse on the road than they are at home. Aaliyah Boston is questionable in this one, and given Indiana has a back-to-back tomorrow, I’m guessing she sits today and Caitlin Clark sits tomorrow. I’m going to pass on this game but would lean Indiana due to the home/road splits.
Chicago Sky (-1.5) vs LA Sparks, O/U 185.5
The Sky have actually been 5.5 points worse than their season average over the last three games, despite averaging 91 points per game in that span. LA has been five points better over their last three games, but the defense still gave up 94 points per game in that span. TSI projects LA -1.5 with a total of 184.5, but the regression is perhaps coming for both sides and would favor Chicago. LA did just get Cameron Brink back, and my numbers estimate she’s worth about 1.5 points, so I’d tentatively call this game a pick ‘em. Chicago has been nine points better at home and LA has been 1.5 points worse on the road, so I’d lean Chicago here. The numbers point to the Under here, but betting Sparks’ Unders is not for the faint of heart, although the regression numbers indicate about 10.5 points of combined regression to the Under coming for these teams, so I’ll give it a shot.
Bet: Under 185.5 or better
Toronto Tempo (+7.5) vs Atlanta Dream, O/U 182.5
Toronto has been 4.5 points worse than its season average over its last three games, averaging just 83 points per game in that span. They’re now averaging eight points fewer at home than on the road, which is odd. Atlanta has been five points worse than its season average over the last three games, and is just 2-6 in its last eight games. TSI projects Atlanta -4.5 with a total of 176, and the regression-adjusted TSI numbers would be Atlanta -4 with a total of 173.5, so I’m going to back Toronto and the Under here.
Bet: Tempo +7.5 or better
Bet: Under 182.5 or better
For all of my WNBA picks, including prop bets and live plays, be sure to follow me on X @TShoeIndex and turn your notifications on to get real-time updates from me on all things WNBA.
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