United States vs. Türkiye
Los Angeles Stadium, Inglewood, California
Thursday June 25th – 10:00 p.m. ET
USA (-105) | Draw (+300) | Türkiye (+255)
Over 2.5 Goals (-135) | Under 2.5 Goals (+110)
Scrimmage. Friendly. Practice. These are all words I have heard this week when the USA vs. Türkiye match comes up. It’s remarkable we are in this spot — it was much more likely the points between these two nations would be completely flipped based on history. But not in the year 2026. The United States secured the group after a victory over Australia, with the help of Paraguay defeating Türkiye 1-0 while down a man for an entire half of football.
The United States has played two perfect matches to begin this tournament. They absolutely needed to get off to a good start if there was any chance of a deep run. Futures prices have begun to plummet, and most of the value has been lost. I still recall Nigel Seeley joining us on Follow The Money the week before the World Cup began, when he made a case for a deep run for this USA team. It may be possible. For the first time since 2010, they have won their group — doing so in a very clean fashion.
Türkiye may have had one of the most unfortunate runs in their recent history. They were stunned in a 2-0 defeat to Australia to open group play, then failed to convert on multiple chances while up a man against Paraguay — a match in which they conceded the only goal within the first two minutes. Türkiye created 4.63 expected goals (xG) through their first two matches while scoring zero. They allowed just 1.23 xG, yet three goals were scored against them in reality. The numbers suggest they have played well; the results simply have not followed. Defensively, they have dropped off from their World Cup qualification level. During qualifying, Türkiye averaged close to 10 interceptions per match — a similar number to their UEFA Nations League qualifying figures — however, at this World Cup, they are averaging just five interceptions per match.
United States manager Mauricio Pochettino will certainly need to take a different approach to this match. It cannot improve the US’s standing in the group, so there is zero reason to risk top players. Striker Folarin Balogun picked up a yellow card against Australia — if he were to receive another here against Türkiye, he would be suspended for the first knockout round. Tyler Adams, Antonee Robinson, and Chris Richards also picked up yellows. Christian Pulisic continues battling his leg injury, so you would most likely continue resting him. Sergiño Dest has played very well but is another guy who may deserve some time off. The result will be a very interesting lineup — though I don’t think that means an unmotivated one.
Any of these players coming off the bench and performing in front of a sold-out crowd, representing USA soccer during this run of form, will want to contribute. I believe the first two performances have lifted the entire squad. Pochettino seems to be making the right decisions for how this team should be playing. It will be tested against bigger and better competition very soon, but you want to keep momentum rolling as they enter the knockout stage. Through two matches, the United States have created 3.67 xG while scoring four goals, and have allowed just 1.05 xG — accounting for the one goal conceded against Paraguay. Their team match rating has improved from 6.48 during their 2024 Copa America run to 6.95 as a squad now. Different players and situations, but it speaks to the overall improved style of play under Pochettino.
I believe this match will be open, free-flowing, and could get a little wild offensively. Türkiye purely has pride to play for — they cannot go scoreless at this World Cup. The frustrations of the first two matches will be unleashed on a reshuffled United States lineup, and I expect them to find the net. Equally, I cannot see the United States going through this match without scoring either. I can’t back either side given the unclear motivations at play, but I do love goals from both teams. You can also play the game Over 2.5 total goals, or the United States team total Over 1.5 goals for similar bets. Best of luck!
Pick: Both Teams to Score & Over 2.5 Goals (+100)
Sponsored Content
Doc’s Sports AI-v2 has reached a new all-time high of +22,090 units since inception (based on $100-per-unit wagering) and has yet to post a losing month. The model is already up +17,530 units in 2026 and has delivered an 85% win rate over the last 14 days.
View all AI-v2 plays and results from 2026
Developed by Doc’s Sports, AI-v2 combines advanced artificial intelligence, sports betting expertise, and data science to identify betting opportunities across major sports.
Special Offer: Receive 90% off your first AI-v2 purchase by emailing [email protected].
